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2006 Christmas Sales in Major Overseas Markets and Retail Outlook for 2007. Research Department 28 December 2006. 2006 Christmas Sales in Major Overseas Markets. 1. US – Retailers to Post 4-5% Growth. Basic Positive Factors. Fairly solid expansion helped by last-minute flurry.

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2006 christmas sales in major overseas markets and retail outlook for 2007
2006 Christmas Sales in Major Overseas Markets and Retail Outlook for 2007

Research Department

28 December 2006

2006 christmas sales in major overseas markets

2006 Christmas Sales in Major Overseas Markets


Us retailers to post 4 5 growth
US – Retailers to Post4-5% Growth

Basic Positive Factors

Fairly solid expansion helped by last-minute flurry

  • Low joblessness

  • Steady income growth

  • Respite of oil prices

  • Windfalls from stock market

Other Positive Factors

  • Longer Thanksgiving-to-Christmas

  • A full weekend of last-minute purchases

  • An influx of tourists


Us battlefield between shoppers and retailers
US – Battlefield between Shoppers and Retailers

  • Prevailing economic slowdown

  • Slackening housing market

  • Still-high fuel costs

  • Selected and procrastinated purchases

Negative Factors

Even more aggressive discounts and promotions

Retailer Strategies

  • Early implementation of promotions

  • Deeper discounts

  • Issuance of gift certificates


Us polarisation of market
US – Polarisation of Market

Discounters and mass merchandisers

  • Caution remained the buzzword

  • Sustained popularity of mass merchandisers and discounters

Better performance of value-for-money merchandise

  • Low prices

  • Free delivery


High-end stores

  • Still-strong showing due to continued spending spree of high-income consumers


Us demand pattern similar to last year s
US – Demand Pattern Similar to Last Year’s

Consumer electronics

  • Flat-panel TVs

  • Handheld digital audio players

  • DVD players, digital cameras, mobile phones, notebooks

Consumer electronics remained hot sellers

  • Video game consoles – Wii & PS3

  • TMX Elmo

  • Certain dolls and licensed toys – Barbie, Bratz & Dora the Explorer

  • Educational toys, robots, trucks & cars, children’s MP3 players



  • Sales affected by warm winter

  • High-end apparel

  • Fine jewellery

  • Higher-priced watches



Europe generally firmer festive spending
Europe – Generally Firmer Festive Spending

Better sales recorded for the major markets amid moderate economic expansion

  • Still-high unemployment

  • Still-high oil prices

  • Higher interest rates

  • Shoppers to buy abroad



  • Heavy emphasis on low prices and store promotions

  • Surge in online sales

  • Growing popularity of gift certificates

  • Better sales for luxuries in some markets




Germany sales to increase by 2
Germany – Sales to Increase by 2%



  • Flat-screen TVs, DVD players, digital music players, digital cameras, GPS navigation systems

Spending in advance of a 3-point VAT hike

  • Video games, educational toys, board games, model trains, plush toys, doll sets


Other gifts

  • Jewellery and watches


  • Sales dragged down by mild temperatures


France and italy higher sales than last year especially in france
France and Italy – Higher Sales Than Last Year Especially in France

Better mood to spend during this holiday season



  • Consumer electronics

  • Video games

  • Jewellery and timepieces

  • Consumer electronics

  • Video games

  • Clothing


Uk sales to increase 3 4
UK – Sales to Increase 3-4% in France

Electronic gadgets

  • Flat-panel TVs

  • Digital music players

  • Mobile phones

  • Home cinema products

  • Lap top computers

Low unemployment and firming house prices to support spending


  • Video games, educational toys, classic toys


  • Sales boosted by deep discounts

Other favoured gifts

  • Jewellery and watches


Japan consumers more willing to spend
Japan – Consumers More Willing to Spend in France

Confidence spurred by rising winter bonuses and better job prospects

Consumer electronics

  • Flat-screen TVs and digital music players much sought after


  • Video games a popular buy


  • Demand hampered by warm weather

Jewellery and watches

  • Sales facilitated by appetite for luxuries


Chinese mainland encouraging year end sales
Chinese Mainland – Encouraging Year-end Sales in France

Retail sales remained strong despite tightening measures

Contributing factors

Favoured gift items

  • Economic fundamentals remained sound

  • Appreciation of RMB

  • Growing popularity of Christmas

  • Increasing Christmas sales promotions

  • Most consumer products including consumer electronics, toys, garments, timepieces and jewellery


Utlook for 2007

utlook for 2007 in France


Us consumer spending to cool slightly
US – Consumer Spending to Cool Slightly in France

  • Sustained consolidation of housing market

Economy to ease back into a lower gear

  • Consumers to remain prudent

  • Sustained popularity of mass merchandisers and discounters

  • But higher-income consumers to continue spending spree

  • Hong Kong exporters to adjust their product strategies


Eu consumption to remain stable
EU – Consumption to Remain Stable in France

  • Rising interest rates

More moderate pace of economic expansion

  • Fiscal deficit reduction

  • Consumers to remain conservative

  • Value-for-money preferred but quality still sought after

  • Strong euro facilitating imports


Eu varied performances
EU – Varied Performances in France

  • Relatively low joblessness

  • Favourable housing market


Varied prospects for different markets

  • Slowing exports

  • VAT rise for 2007


  • Slowing exports

  • Deficit reduction measures


  • Sustained job creation and income growth



Japan consumer spending to expand steadily
Japan – Consumer Spending to Expand Steadily in France

  • Moderating exports

Continued but tepid economic revival

  • An end to zero-interest-rate policy and expected tightening of fiscal policy

  • Sustained improvement in labour market and wages

  • Adherence to value-for-money but growing demand for higher-end products

  • Stable yen facilitating imports


Chinese mainland healthy spending to take hold
Chinese Mainland – Healthy Spending to Take Hold in France

  • Government policies such as introduction of minimum wages, salary reform for civil servants, expansion of rural consumption and increases in welfare expenditure

Increased consumer spending a priority for 2007

  • Rapid urbanisation and growth of middle class

  • CEPA III to provide sales opportunities

  • Shift in consumption on sophisticated consumer goods

  • Increasing mainland customers to shop in Hong Kong