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Mid-Range Water Supply Forecasts for Municipal Water Supplies . Matthew Wiley, Richard Palmer, and Michael Miller Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Today’s Presentation. Need for forecast Describe approach Present forecasts Introduce Website www.tag.washington.edu.

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mid range water supply forecasts for municipal water supplies

Mid-Range Water Supply Forecasts for Municipal Water Supplies

Matthew Wiley,

Richard Palmer, and Michael Miller

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

today s presentation
Today’s Presentation
  • Need for forecast
  • Describe approach
  • Present forecasts
  • Introduce Website
    • www.tag.washington.edu
goals
Goals
  • Evaluate the value of a 6-month meteorological forecast in making water resources decisions
  • Use meteorological forecast to create a forecast of streamflows
    • Evaluate the meteorological data
    • Evaluate the hydrologic response
partner utilities
Partner Utilities

Seattle Public Utilities

Tacoma Water

Everett Public Utilities

problem setting
Problem Setting
  • Project Setting – Puget Sound Region
    • Water supply to 2.6 million
    • Flood Control
    • Navigation
    • Hydropower
    • Environmental
water supply utility challenges
Water Supply Utility Challenges
  • Provide safe, reliable and inexpensive drinking water
  • Preserve environmental quality, demonstrate resource stewardship
  • Maintain/enhance Infrastructure
  • Provide stable and economically viable rate structure
  • Adapt to evolving water quality requirements
primary purposes of forecast
Primary Purposes of Forecast
  • Refill decisions in spring
  • Supply evaluation in early summer
  • Decisions related to fish flows (when is water most needed)
  • Curtailment decisions in late summer
  • Drawdown decisions in fall
value of forecast
Value of Forecast
  • Utility has established operating policies
  • Forecast is valuable if it provides information that modifies policy and forecast is correct
  • Accurate forecasts of normal, below, or above normal are desired (can result in policy change)
approaches
Approaches
  • Historical Streamflows
    • Assume averages are sufficient
  • Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)
    • Well-established approach
    • Used by Weather Service
    • Can be conditioned on climate condition
esp forecast
ESP Forecast

Ensemble of

Meteorological

Data to Generate

forecast

Recently Observed

Meteorological Data

Spin-up

ICs

Forecast

hydrologic

state

obs

approaches12
Approaches
  • National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 6-month forecasts
    • Uses Global Climate Model to produce forecast ensembles
    • Can be compared to ESP
slide13

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast.

20 Ensemble Forecast

Coupled Ocean-AGCM

2x2 degree GSM

20 different

Initial states

of the atmosphere

Official

NCEP

Climate

Forecast

20 unique forecasts of the climate over the next six months

Initial and

Predicted

SST for next

6 months

Correlation Analysis

Past Experience

Probability Mapping

We use the raw model output at this point.

slide14

Years

1979

1980

1981

1999

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast.

10 Ensemble Hindcasts

2x2 degree GSM

10 unique hindcasts of the climate for each year over the next six months

10 different

initial states that existed

of the atmosphere

Coupled Ocean-AGCM

Official

NCEP

Climate

Forecast (210 hindcasts)

Initial and

Predicted

SST for

6 months

Years

1979

1980

1981

1999

Used in conjunction with forecasts for bias correction

21 years

We use Hindcasts for bias correction and retrospective analysis

forecasts being produced
Forecasts being produced
  • ESP
  • NCEP
  • http://www.tag.washington.edu/projects.html
tentative conclusions
Tentative Conclusions
  • Streamflow Forecast
    • In small west slope basins, NCEP is generally more useful than ESP
    • Monthly forecast
      • Poor in December
      • Better in later months of the forecast
    • Seasonal Forecast
      • Better in the spring and early summer
      • Poor in late winter
  • NCEP is in the process of revising its mid-range forecasting procedures
future
Future
  • Work continues
    • Water Temperature Modeling
    • Improve Web Viewing
    • Continue With Forecasts
    • Additional Evaluation of the Quality of the Forecast
      • Conditional evaluations
      • Evaluate other types of Forecasts IRI, CPC
future27
Future
  • Work continues
    • Water Temperature Modeling
    • Improve Web Viewing
    • Continue With Forecasts
    • Further Evaluation of Forecast Quality
    • Consider other climate forecasts: IRI, CPC
    • Additional Water Supply Basins
      • White River
      • Bull Run
      • Tualatin
web page
Web Page
  • http://www.tag.washington.edu
    • Projects
      • Mid-Range Forecasts