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State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey. GREENHOUSE GASEOUS EMISSION CALCULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OF TURKEY M.Nilgün EGEMEN. State Institute of Statistics Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey.

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slide2

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Located at the junction of Europe and Asia, Turkey is an industrializing country with

Land area of 779,000 km2

Population of 70,8 million to 81 million

from 2003 to 2020

GDP: US$ 205 billion to 794

from 2000 to 2020

- 3000 US$ per capita income/2000

slide3

Reserves

Proven

Probable

Possible

Total

Hard Coal (Mt)

428

456

245

1129

Lignite (Mt)

7339

626

110

8075

Asphaltite (Mt)

45

29

8

82

Bituminous Shale (Mt)

555

1086

1641

Hydro

GWh/year

MW/year

125000

125000

34729

Crude Oil (Mt)

43.1

43.1

Natural Gas (bcm)

8.8

8.8

Nuclear

Uranium (t)

Thorium (t)

9129

380000

3

9129

380000

Geothermal (MW/year)

Electricity

Heat

200

2250

4300

28850

4500

31100

Solar (MW/year)

Electricity

Heat

8.8

26.4

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Turkey Has Limited Domestic Resources

electricity demand
Electricity Demand

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

It is expected that our country’s electricity demand will grow approximately 8 % per year from 2000 onwards.

slide5

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Change in primary energy consumption and supply by fuel type (MTEP)

emission calculations

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

EMISSION CALCULATIONS

Starting date: 1997

Period : 1970 – 2002

projections until 2030 for energy

Coverage : National level

Sectors : Energy (fuel combustion and

fugitive emissions)

Industrial processes

Agricultural activities (manure management,

enterik fermentation and burning of

agricultural residues)

Solid waste management (controlled ladfill)

role of sis

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

ROLE OF SIS

SIS is the coordinator institution of Greenhouse Gaseous Emission Inventory Working Group formed under Climate Change Coordination Board. Members of this working group are:

Ministry of Environment and Forestry

Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources

Electricity Generation Cooperation

Related non-governmental organisations

Studies for the preperation of 1st National Communication has been going on, and it will be submitted to the Secretariat at the end of October 2004.

emissions calculated

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

EMISSIONS CALCULATED

Emissions originated from fuel combustion by sectors

(energy, industry, transportation and others)

Coal mining

Transportation of crude oil

Industrial processes

Agricultural activities

(rice caltivation and burning of agricultural residues)

Domestic livestock

(enteric fermentation and manure management)

Solid waste

(controlled landfill)

emissions and sectors 1

Sectors

Greenhouse Gaseous

Energy

Amount of fuel consumed (energy, transportation, industry and other)

CO2, CH4, N2O, NOX, CO, SO2, NMVOC

Coal mining

CH4

Transportation of crude oil

CH4

Industrial Processes

Industrial Processes

CO2, CH4, N2O, NOX, NMVOC, CO, SO2

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

EMISSIONS AND SECTORS-1

emissions and sectors 2

Sectors

Greenhouse Gasesous

Agricultural Activities

Enteric fermentation and manure management

CH4

Rice caltivation

CH4

Burning of agricultural residues

CH4, N2O, NOX, CO

Waste

Solid waste (controlled landfill)

CH4

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

EMISSIONS AND SECTORS -2

emissions not calculated

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

EMISSIONS NOT CALCULATED

Fugitive emissions from oil and gas production, transportation and storage except crude oil transportaion

Solvent use

N2O emissions from fertilizer managemet

Emissions from agricultural soil

Emissions from halocarbons (HFCs ve PFCs) and sulphur hexaflouride consumption

Emissions from treatment of wastewater and uncontrolled ladfill sites

Emissions from land use and land use change

co 2 emissions gg

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

CO2 EMISSIONS (Gg)

ch 4 emissions gg

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

CH4 EMISSIONS (Gg)

emission projections for energy

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

EMISSION PROJECTIONS FOR ENERGY

ENPEP (Energy and Power Evaluation Program)

  • MAED was used by MENR to develop the energy demand projections;
  • VALORAGUA was used by TEIAS to analyze the hydro power system in detail;
  • WASP was used by TEIAS to determine the power sector expansion and estimate unit generation and fuel consumption
  • levels; and
  • BALANCE was used by
  • MENR to perform the integrated overall energy sector analysis, calculate emission projections, and
  • estimate the economic impacts.
balance

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

BALANCE

BALANCE uses a non-linear, equilibrium approach to determine the energy supply and demand balance.

An energy network that is designed to trace the flow of energy from primary resource through to final energy and/or useful energy demand.

Demand is sensitive to prices of alternatives and supply price is sensitive to the quantity demanded. BALANCE seeks to find the intersection of supply and demand curves.

BALANCE simultaneously tries to find the intersection for all energy supply

forms and all energy uses that are included in the energy network. The

equilibrium is reached when the model finds a set of prices and quantities

that satisfy all relevant equations and inequalities.

slide23

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

The model employs a market share algorithm

The market share of a specific comodity is sensitive to the comodity’s price relative to the price of alternative commodities. Constraints, government policies, preferences and the ability of markets to respond to price signals over time also affect the market share of a commodity.

BALANCE simultaneously finds the intersection of supply and demand curves for all energy supply forms and all energy uses included in the energy network. Equilibrium is reached when the model finds a set of market clearing prices and quantities that satisfy all relevant equations and inequalities.

The model employs the Jacobi iterative technique to find the solution that is within a user-defined convergence tolerance.

Concurrently with the energy calculations, the model

computes the environmental residual associated with

given energy system configuration. Greenhouse gas

emissions can be reported in a format that is compatible with the IPCC

energy and environment review in turkey

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Energy and Environment Review in Turkey

Energy demand forecasting.

Environmental issues associated with the coal/lignite mining and power generation

sub-sectors.

Coal Use and Environmental Technologies

Management and Utilization of Solid Wastes from Coal-fired Power Plants in Turkey

Potential for co-generation in Turkey.

Assessment of Transmission & Distribution loss reduction.

Improved management of emissions from non-power sectors.

Improvement of petroleum fuels quality.

Special Study

Lanfill Gas

Energy Sector Modelling

technical suport to MENR and TEAS to carry out various energy system analyses.

to integrate information obtained in other EER tasks

to provide Turkiey’s policy makers with an integrated system analysis of the various options for addressing the various energy and environmental concerns

slide25

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

A Reference Case was developed to compare alternative scenarios

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios

technical efficiency scenario

clean coal technology scenario

nuclear scenario

co-generation scenario

renewable scenario

CO2 tax scenario

constrained gas sub-critical scenario

constrained gas super-critical scenario

DSM scenario

Local Pollution Scenarios

petroleum product quality scenario

EU standarts power-only scenario

EU standarts power+oil scenario

main scenario assumptions 1

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Main Scenario Assumptions-1

Macreeconomic/Energy Demand Assumptions

MAED results from December 2001 from MENR

main macroeconomic drivers from State Planning Organization

price index for imported coal, crude oil and natural gas projections

from WB

Structural, Policy and Pricing Assumptions for Reference Case

No new domestic reserves of fossil fuels will be discovered

No limits on the import of crude oil, natural gas or hard coal

The expansion of the electricity system is done on the basis of the least cost over the whole system and over the whole planning period without constraints on gas supply,

No major changes in the country’s energy pricing policy,

no new major energy conservation or renewable resource programs

main scenario assumptions 2

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Main Scenario Assumptions-2

  • Structural, Policy and Pricing Assumptions for Alternative Scenarios
    • Clean Coal Scenario: 6 new 250 MW circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) units into the power sector expansion.
    • Nuclear Power: Introduce 6 new 1000 MW nuclear units into the power sector expansion starting in 2015.
    • Cogeneration: Initiate more aggressive cogeneration levels in 2005. The goal is to have 20% of total electricity production coming from cogeneration by 2025.
    • Carbon Tax: Introducing a carbon tax of $4 per ton CO2 in 2004.
    • Renewables: Initiate more aggressive renewables program in 2005 aiming at having 7% of total electricity production coming from mini-hydro and wind power.
    • Constrained gas sub-critical: Limit on natural gas. Full utilizatio of the remaining domestic lignite resources at Elbistan (11 units with 500 MW each). In addition, a total of 25,900 MW of imported coal-fired generation (37 units with 700 MW each) are assumed to come an-line.
    • Constrained gas super-critical: Same as sub-critical scenario, except all coal units are super-critical and have different cost and technical parameters.
main scenario assumptions 3

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Main Scenario Assumptions-3

  • Environmental assumptions
      • All GHG emission factors for all sectors and technologies from IPCC (IPCC, 1996)
      • Power sector emission factors for PM, NOx and SO2 from EUAS
      • Transport sector emission factors from EER Task 5 report
      • Ratioo of total PM to PM10 and PM2.5 from AP42
      • Required modification have been done for alternative scenarios (e.g. sub-critical and super critical power plants will meet EU standarts)
  • Others
      • Planning period: 1995-2025
      • Real discount rate: 10%
      • Referrance year for cost discounting: 2000
      • All cost data are expressed in constant 2000 U.S. dollars
slide29

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Referance Case Energy and Electricity

Referance Case Electricity Generation by fuel

Referance Case Production-Import-Consumption Balance

slide30

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Referance Case CO2 Emissions

slide31

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Referance Case CH4 Emissions

slide32

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Referance Case N2O Emissions

slide33

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Comparing Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

slide34

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

GHG Scenarios Results

DSM, cogeneration in industry and improved technical efficiency in the power sector are clearly essential ingredients of future climate change policies.

The scope of more reliance on cogeneration in industry and improved technical efficiensy in the power sector is intrinsically restricted.

With the reduction over 10% in the planning period, the environmental impact for DSM is the greatest in terms of projected emission reduction.

slide35

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

GHG Scenarios Results

  • Greater natural gas utilization is clearly preferable to coal and lignite. The constrained gas super-critical has lower cost and emission burden over the constrained gas sub-critical.
  • Nuclear power is not attractive for GHG abatement, even though the nert energy import bill drops.
slide36

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

GHG Scenarios Results

  • Renewables have a role to play in GHG reduction policy, but development of renewables will need to be selective.
  • A carbon tax will bring about some beneficial inter-fuel substitution, inducing consumer to less carbon intensive gas in preference to coal and lignite. However the result of these fuel shifts is an increase in economic cost of energy supply
slide37

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Local Pollution Scenarios Scenarios Results

  • Improving petroleum product quality would cut sulphur emissions by more than 16% over the period 200-2025 at a cost of $252/tonne (discounted).
  • The introduction of EU standarts and improvement of petroleum product quality would be cost effective options to reduce emissions of sulphur.EU standarts would result in sulphur emissions 36% lower than under the Reference Case over the period 2000-2025.
  • DSM, cogeneration and improved technical efficiency can all contribute to local pollution control.
  • The use of natural gas is preferable to coal and lignite, because emissions of PM, SO2, Nox and ash are all higher in the Constrained Gas Sub-critical and Super-critical Scenarios as well as the economic cost of energy supply, although at a lower net energy import bill.
  • Although a carbon tax is normally regarded as an economic instrument for the control of GHG emissions, it would also yield as a by-product or ancillary benefit, useful reductions in local pollution.
slide38

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Conclusion-1

  • Under the Reference Case;
    • Total Primary Energy Supply of 81.4 mtoe in 2000 is expected to be 332 mtoe by the year 2025.
    • While domestic production doubles between 200 and 2025, overall energy imports are estimated to rise about six fold in the same period, bringing Turkey’s energy import dependency to 83% by 2025 compared with 62% in 2000.
    • As the demand for gas increases rapidly, virtually all natural gas must be imported.
    • Total CO2 emissions reaches 871 mtons/year with an average increase of 5,8 by at the end of the planning period. Induatry sector is the main driver of the emissions .
slide39

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

Conclusion-2

  • Total Sos emissions has the lowest value in 2003 but, more than doubles by 2025 and reaches 3,85 mtons/year. Main source of this increase comes from using fuel oil and solid fuil in the industry sector.
  • When each of GHG emission scenarios is applied individually, it does not have a major impact on CO2/GHG emissions. An effective national policy on climate change will have to rely on the aggressive application of a combination of options
  • As with the design of policies for GHG mitigation, it is clear that no single policy option will have a major impact on all emissions causing local pollution. An effective policy for the reduction of local pollution will have to rely on the application of a mix of options.
slide40

State Institute of Statistics

Prime Ministry

Republic of Turkey

THANK YOU

FOR YOUR ATTENTION....