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S.No.1. Presentation on India’s Kharif Oilseeds Crops Estimate & Projection for Rabi Crops & Demand & Supply of Edible oils during 2011-12 By Govindbhai G. Patel Mg. Partner G. G. Patel & Nikhil Research Company At SEA Annual General Meeting On 23rd Sept. 2011. S.No.2.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

S.No.1

Presentation on

India’s Kharif Oilseeds Crops Estimate & Projection

for Rabi Crops & Demand

& Supply of Edible oils during 2011-12

By

Govindbhai G. Patel

Mg. Partner

G. G. Patel & Nikhil Research Company

At

SEA Annual General Meeting

On 23rd Sept. 2011

slide2

S.No.2

RAINFALL DETAILS

RAINFALL IN OILSEED GROWING STATES

DURING1ST JUNE TO 15TH SEPT. AS REPORTED BY IMD

+ 56%

+ 28%

+ 18%

+ 4%

+ 19%

+ 54%

+ 35%

- 5%

+ 12%

Country as a whole + 3%

slide3

S.No.3

  • In many states arrival of monsoon was late.
  • Initially A.P. & Karnataka were deficient in rain which has affected the

crop in those states.

  • There were excessive rain in many states particularly in West M.P.,

Central M.P., Saurashtra & Kutch, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan

etc. which has affected crops.

  • Yet excess soil moisture is present in many areas.
  • In most of the States dry weather is required now.
  • If rain continues now-onwards, it will affect the crop.
  • Harvesting of Kharif crops may be delayed by 2/3 weeks than

normal.

slide4

S.No.4

Kharif Oilseeds area increased by around 1.3 Lac Ha.

Soybean area increased by 10 lac ha. & GN area reduced

by 6.5 lac ha.

NOTE: Area for 2011-12 as reported by the Govt. on 15-09-11

slide5

S.No.5

Castorseed area increased by 40% and Cotton area increased by 10%

slide6

S.No.6

-6.6

-2.4

-3.2

-1.5

+0.4

+0.9

-0.4

-0.4

In all the states area has decreased except Rajasthan

where area has increased by 90,000 ha.

slide7

S.No.7

+10. 0

  • M.P. area increased by 3.4 lac ha.
  • Maharashtra area increased by 4.5 lac ha.
  • Rajasthan area increased by 1.3 lac ha.

+3.4

+4.5

+1.3

+0.8

slide8

S.No.8

  • Gujarat (Nearly 33% of total area)
  • Rain delayed but afterwards satisfactory – Pre-monsoon area sowing

increased from 15/20% to about 40% which gives better yield – Very

good condition of crop except in some belt due to excessive rain –

Weather conducive to crop – No pest attack – Although area is

reduced by 15% but yield may be better by 25% - Harvesting late by

above 2 weeks – This year yield may be second highest in last 11

years provided there is not excessive rain from now onwards.

  • Southern States – A.P., T.N. & Karnataka (40% of total area)
  • Initially very dry condition and late rain in A.P. & Karnataka – Uneven distribution of rain which affects yield – Area reduced by 23% but yield will increase by 22% against previous year’s poor yield.
  • Rajasthan (10% of total area)
  • Satisfactory rain – Conducive weather – Generally Rajasthan yields

are excellent – Yield slightly less than last year – Area increased by

27% and yield may be reduced by 4% or as good as previous year.

slide9

S.No.9

  • Madhya Pradesh (Nearly 55% of total area)
  • Crop is in average condition in West M.P. Rainfall has been continuous

– Less drying period – Soil moisture remains saturated for long time

which deteriorates crop – Water logging – Dry weather needed.

  • Crop condition average in East M.P. – Sowing was delayed – Abundant

wet weather and more cases of water logging which has adverse effect

on growth – Leaves turned yellow & shedding of beans – but high land

crop in good condition – Dry weather needed. - Delay in harvesting.

  • Average yield will be less than last year.
  • Maharashtra (Nearly 30% of total area)
  • Crop in good condition – Initially Monsoon was weak – planting

delayed – Re-sowing required in Central Maharashtra and

Marathawada belt – Insufficient rain in June but Good rain in July &

regular showers till date which has improved crop prospects – Plant

growth satisfactory. - Yield may be same as previous year.

  • Rajasthan (Nearly 9% of total area)
  • Crop in good condition – Sowing little early – Received above average

rainfall – Plant growth satisfactory with few problems in Barah belt

where rainfall is excessive & few cases of water logging – Dry weather

needed. - Yield will be better than last year.

slide10

S.No.10

+7.1

+6.0

+2.0

-0.4

-0.1

-0.4

The Kharif Oilseeds crops may increase by 7 Lac MT

during 2011-12 against 2010-11.

Soybean Crop may increase by 6 Lac T & GN by 2 Lac T.

slide11

S.No.11

+2.0

All India Groundnut crop is estimated to increased by 2 Lac MT in 2011-12 on spite of reduction in area by 6.5 lac ha. due to better yield.

South India’s crop may remain same as last year.

Rajasthan crop may increase by 1 Lac MT.

+1.3

UNCH

+1.0

-0.5

+0.5

-0.1

-0.2

slide12

S.No.12

+6.0

All India Soybean crop is estimated to increase by 6 Lac MT. Although area has increased by 10 lac ha. but yield may be reduced due to excessive rains, particularly in MP.

Maharashtra and Rajasthan Crop may increase by 4.5 & 2 Lac MT and MP Crop may reduce by 1 Lac MT.

-1.0

+4.5

+2.0

+0.5

slide13

S.No.13

+5.8

+3.0

+1.6

+0.8

+0.3

+0.1

Since rains are excellent, sub-soil moisture may be better.

Area under Rabi oilseeds are likely to increase, yields may

be better and Rabi crops may increase by around 6 lac MT.

However, much will depend on weather.

slide14

S.No.14

Availability of Domestic Oils may increase by 3 Lac MT.

slide15

S.No.15

Consumption growth will remain at 4.50% or may increase due to (1) consistent GDP growth of around 8% (2) Big emerging middle class (3) Double digit growth in Out of Home Consumption (4) Population growth (5) Rising income of labour who are consuming much bellow the all India level (6) Rising urban population (7) Supply of edible oils by The Govt. at subsidised rate under PDS etc.

slide17

S.No.17

(Figures in Lac MT)

+8.5

+5.5

+2.0

+1.0

Our import requirement may increase by 8 lacs MT during 2011-12

Total import may reach about 92 lac MT of edible oils.

But the largest increase may be in Palm oil which may increase by about 6 lac MT. Sun Oil import may increase by 1 lac MT.

However, composition of import depends on price parities with different oils.

Over above this, non-edible oil import may be 3.5 lac T which will make total Palm oil import at 74 lac T. and total import to 95 lac T.

slide18

S.No.18

  • That the rain will not continue excessively till the harvesting of the crop. Otherwise it may damage the crop and crops may be reduced.
  • Present duty structure for import of Edible Oils remains same.
  • Price difference between different Oils will remain around present level – Which will effect composition of import.
  • Weather during Rabi season remains reasonably favourable.
slide19

S.No.19

Thank you