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S.No.1. Presentation on India’s Kharif Oilseeds Crops Estimate & Projection for Rabi Crops & Demand & Supply of Edible oils during 2011-12 By Govindbhai G. Patel Mg. Partner G. G. Patel & Nikhil Research Company At SEA Annual General Meeting On 23rd Sept. 2011. S.No.2.
India’s Kharif Oilseeds Crops Estimate & Projection
for Rabi Crops & Demand
& Supply of Edible oils during 2011-12
Govindbhai G. Patel
G. G. Patel & Nikhil Research Company
SEA Annual General Meeting
On 23rd Sept. 2011
RAINFALL IN OILSEED GROWING STATES
DURING1ST JUNE TO 15TH SEPT. AS REPORTED BY IMD
Country as a whole + 3%
crop in those states.
Central M.P., Saurashtra & Kutch, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan
etc. which has affected crops.
Kharif Oilseeds area increased by around 1.3 Lac Ha.
Soybean area increased by 10 lac ha. & GN area reduced
by 6.5 lac ha.
NOTE: Area for 2011-12 as reported by the Govt. on 15-09-11
Castorseed area increased by 40% and Cotton area increased by 10%
In all the states area has decreased except Rajasthan
where area has increased by 90,000 ha.
increased from 15/20% to about 40% which gives better yield – Very
good condition of crop except in some belt due to excessive rain –
Weather conducive to crop – No pest attack – Although area is
reduced by 15% but yield may be better by 25% - Harvesting late by
above 2 weeks – This year yield may be second highest in last 11
years provided there is not excessive rain from now onwards.
are excellent – Yield slightly less than last year – Area increased by
27% and yield may be reduced by 4% or as good as previous year.
– Less drying period – Soil moisture remains saturated for long time
which deteriorates crop – Water logging – Dry weather needed.
wet weather and more cases of water logging which has adverse effect
on growth – Leaves turned yellow & shedding of beans – but high land
crop in good condition – Dry weather needed. - Delay in harvesting.
delayed – Re-sowing required in Central Maharashtra and
Marathawada belt – Insufficient rain in June but Good rain in July &
regular showers till date which has improved crop prospects – Plant
growth satisfactory. - Yield may be same as previous year.
rainfall – Plant growth satisfactory with few problems in Barah belt
where rainfall is excessive & few cases of water logging – Dry weather
needed. - Yield will be better than last year.
The Kharif Oilseeds crops may increase by 7 Lac MT
during 2011-12 against 2010-11.
Soybean Crop may increase by 6 Lac T & GN by 2 Lac T.
All India Groundnut crop is estimated to increased by 2 Lac MT in 2011-12 on spite of reduction in area by 6.5 lac ha. due to better yield.
South India’s crop may remain same as last year.
Rajasthan crop may increase by 1 Lac MT.
All India Soybean crop is estimated to increase by 6 Lac MT. Although area has increased by 10 lac ha. but yield may be reduced due to excessive rains, particularly in MP.
Maharashtra and Rajasthan Crop may increase by 4.5 & 2 Lac MT and MP Crop may reduce by 1 Lac MT.
Since rains are excellent, sub-soil moisture may be better.
Area under Rabi oilseeds are likely to increase, yields may
be better and Rabi crops may increase by around 6 lac MT.
However, much will depend on weather.
Availability of Domestic Oils may increase by 3 Lac MT.
Consumption growth will remain at 4.50% or may increase due to (1) consistent GDP growth of around 8% (2) Big emerging middle class (3) Double digit growth in Out of Home Consumption (4) Population growth (5) Rising income of labour who are consuming much bellow the all India level (6) Rising urban population (7) Supply of edible oils by The Govt. at subsidised rate under PDS etc.
(Figures in Lac MT)
Our import requirement may increase by 8 lacs MT during 2011-12
Total import may reach about 92 lac MT of edible oils.
But the largest increase may be in Palm oil which may increase by about 6 lac MT. Sun Oil import may increase by 1 lac MT.
However, composition of import depends on price parities with different oils.
Over above this, non-edible oil import may be 3.5 lac T which will make total Palm oil import at 74 lac T. and total import to 95 lac T.