Why did the 1993 oslo accords fail
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Why did the 1993 Oslo Accords Fail?. Before Oslo. End of the Cold War and collapse of the Soviet Union Unchallenged hegemony of United States Gulf War Rise of radical Islamic organizations . Prior Attempts at Peace. Madrid 1991 3 day conference Early attempt at peace Multi-lateral

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Before oslo l.jpg
Before Oslo

  • End of the Cold War and collapse of the Soviet Union

  • Unchallenged hegemony of United States

  • Gulf War

  • Rise of radical Islamic organizations


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Prior Attempts at Peace

  • Madrid 1991

    • 3 day conference

    • Early attempt at peace

    • Multi-lateral

    • No open PLO association

    • 2 stage formula

    • Symbolic


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Israeli Motives

  • Realisation of a need to change policy after 1987 Intifada

  • Remove low-cost policies following 1967 war

  • Israeli identity

    • Not sure about territories

    • Damaging affect of occupation


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Motives continued

  • Rabin

    • Campaigned against Shamir and Likud

    • In power ridicules Right Wing and attempts to remove religion and ideology from state policies

  • Israel and United States

    • Israel requests $10 billion in 1991

    • Money conditional on ‘non West Bank activities’

    • US/Israel relationship strained


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Palestinian Motives

  • Return of refugees

  • Recognition of a independent Palestine and return of Occupied land

  • Removal of ‘colonial’ ties

  • PLO- weakened & isolated

  • Decline of Arabism, frustration and support for Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait


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Oslo/ Declaration of Principles

  • Not a peace treaty- mutual recognition

  • Negotiations over a 5 year period

  • Installation of Interim Self-Government and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza & Jericho

  • Leading to a permanent solution based on UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338

  • Structure- Articles- Permanent Issues


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Reaction in Israel and Palestine

Hard line opposition to the accords in both Israel and Palestine

Both leaders accused of betrayal and ‘selling-out’

65% of Israeli citizens in favour of the accords

Majority in favour of the accords within the Palestinian Executive Committee


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Failure to Address the Key Issues

  • Status of Jerusalem

  • Security arrangements

  • Refugee situation

  • Borders

  • Palestinian sovereignty

  • Palestinian dependence upon the Israeli economy


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Netanyahu’s Animosity Towards Peace

  • Initial Progress and Oslo II

  • Rabin assassinated by Israeli extremist in November 1995

  • Netanyahu becomes Israeli leader in May 1996 and had little desire for peace

  • Netanyahu intent to block all progress of peace

  • United States pressure on Israel to concede territory to the Palestinians led to the Hebron Protocol and the Wye River Memorandum


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Barak’s Inability to Generate Peace

  • Ehud Barak became Israeli leader in May 1999 and this brought some renewed hope for peace

  • Failure of the Camp David Summit

  • Peace was not forthcoming


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The Palestinian Contribution

  • Palestinian’s distrust of the Oslo accords

  • “It was Arafat who lacked a clear

    strategy and his political management

    has been marked by a high degree of

    improvisation and short termism”

    (Sayigh 2001)

  • Palestinian militants bombing Israel

  • Failures of the PNA

  • Frequent resort to violence


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The Role of the United States

  • Took an active role in promoting peace

  • Manipulated by both the Israelis and Palestinians

  • Palestinians blamed for the collapse of the 2000 Camp David Summit, however this undermined the United States neutrality


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Conclusion

  • The Oslo accords provided the opportunity to make a real difference and generate peace in a bitter and protracted conflict

  • There are a number of reasons why the accords collapsed including:

  • The failure to fully address many of the core issues, the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin derailing the peace process, Netanyahu’s refusal to support the accords, Israel continuing its policy of land confiscation and building new Jewish settlements in the occupied territories, and as such political violence has remained widespread and culminated in a full scale Palestinian uprising known as the Al-Aqsa intifada