Presentation for the COP12 and COP/MOP2 side-event

1. P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India (shukla@iimahd.ernet.in) Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Presentation for the COP12 and COP/MOP2 side-event “Global Challenges toward Low-Carbon Society (LCS) through Sustainable Development (SD)” Nairobi, Kenya, November 8, 2006

2. Why should “Development and Climate” actions be aligned? • Climate change is a derivative problem of development • Development is the key to mitigative and adaptive capacities • Dealing with climate change exclusively is very expensive & expected to cost several trillion dollars over this century • Strategies for dealing with sustainable development and climate change have many common elements, and aligning these would deliver co-benefits

3. Climate Goal Economic/social Indicator National Development Targets Economic/social Indicator Technology & Institutional Innovations; Co-benefits Climate Quality Climate Quality Aligning Development and Climate by Shifting the Frontier • Overcoming Conflict by Shifting the “frontier” though: • Innovations in technology & institutions • Targeted technology innovations, investment and deployment • Aligning diverse interests of multiple stakeholder • Sequence of policies and measures to accrue co-benefits • International and regional cooperation

4. Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change

5. 80% 60% Traditional Biomass Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption 40% Coal Oil 20% Nuclear Gas Hydro 0% 1952 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 Influencing Energy Transitions How to transit to Modern Biomass? Food Security? Domestic Resource: +ve Direct Employment: +ve Energy Security: -ve Foreign Exchange: -ve En. Security: +Ve Fuel Supply? Waste disposal? Safety? Geopolitical Risk: High Foreign Exchange: -ve Regional water disputes? Indirect Benefits

6. Integrated South-Asia Energy Market South-Asia Energy Cooperation • Spillover Benefits: • 16 MW additional Hydropower • Flood control • Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries

7. 1.10 Fossil Electricity w/o Reforms Fossil Electricity with Reforms 0.90 Cumulative CO2 not Emitted: 140 million ton Total Electricity w/o Reforms Kg (Carbon Dioxide) / KWh Total Electricity with Reforms 0.70 0.50 2001 1990 1994 2000 1996 1992 1998 CO2 Emissions Saved by Electricity Reforms Baselines of Carbon Content of Electricity

8. Monsoon Rainfall (2050) Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability Maintenance Cost Curve Cost with adverse Climate Change and Deforestation Cost with adverse Climate Change Increase in mean and variability due to Climate Change Repair and Maintenance Costs Present C limate Conventional Bath-Tub Curve More number of days with >200 Less number of mm rainfall Very high Probability of Occurrence days with >200 number of days mm rainfall with >200 mm rainfall 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Future Climate Light and Heavy and Number of days with spread - over rain concentrated rain > 200mm rainfall Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure

9. Opportunities to mainstream climate concerns in development actions exist everywhere; and more so in developing countries. Climate centric actions could miss opportunities which may deliver development and climate co-benefits. Pathways to “Low Carbon” and “Climate Resistant” societies are best found if viewed through the sustainability lens. Cost-effective transition to Low Carbon Society is not automatic. It would require crafting strategies that align development and climate policies and actions through sustainability goals. Conclusions