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Climate change and territorial effects on regions and local economies in Europe

This seminar explores the territorial effects of climate change on European regions and local economies. It discusses climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, and highlights the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region. The seminar also examines the impact of climate change on river floods and the need for tailored policy responses. Additionally, it explores social sensitivity to climate change, particularly the population above 65 years, and highlights the importance of adaptive capacity building at the local level. The seminar concludes with discussions on greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation capacities in Europe.

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Climate change and territorial effects on regions and local economies in Europe

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  1. Climate change and territorial effects on regions and local economiesin Europe Stefan Greiving (TU Dortmund) ESPON Internal Seminar Liège, Belgium Nov. 17, 2010 ESPON Climate

  2. Exposure Sensitivity Reminder: Overall methodology of the project Heavy Rainfall Days Summer Days Frost Days Snow Cover Days Econ. Environ. Physical Social Cultural A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D Summer Precip. Winter Precip. Mean Evapor. Mean Temp. Sea Level Rise River Floods Aggregate Exposure Aggregate Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Insti-tutions Economic Resources Infrastructure Knowledge+ Awareness Technology Impacts Physical Envir. Econ. Cultural Social A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D Aggregate Adaptive Capacity Aggregate Impact AggregateImpact Map Adaptive Capacity Map ThematicImpact Maps Vulnerability Aggregate Vulnerability Vulnerability Map

  3. Aggregated climate change exposure • Aggregated changes in climate stimuli are more severe in Scandinavia, the Alpine region and parts of South-eastern Europe. • Range of values between 1.14 and 3.25 – some regions are three times as much exposed as others. • This does not necessarily mean that the vulnerability of Scandinavian regions is particular high. • When sensitivity and adaptive capacity come in, the picture will considerably change. • The Mediterranean area is considered to be particularly vulnerable due to its sensitivity.

  4. Triggered effect: river flooding Maps shows projected changes in flood hazard for 1:100 flood event till 2100 and is based on JRC data Complex patter: flood hazard does not necessarily increase due to climate change Thus, a differentated tailor-made policy response is needed High uncertanity calls for flexible no-regret strategies

  5. Methodology Sources: G lobal sea level rise: Vermeer/Rahmstorff 2009 Regional adjustment: Satellite altimetry data 1992-2009 Storm surge heights: DIVA Triggered effect: Sea level rise Regional storm surge height (100-year event) Regional sea level rise adjustment Projected global sea level rise Current mean sea level 5

  6. Example for social sensitivity: Population changes 2005 – 2100

  7. Absolute numbers (indexed) Relative share (indexed) Population above 65 years in 2100

  8. Population > 65y (abs. & rel.) Exposure: Summer days Combining sensitivity and exposure

  9. Mainly affected regions: Mediterranean cities, Parts of Southern Italy, Northern Iberian regions, Southern Germany, Urbanized areas in SE Europe Adaptive capacity building is needed mainly on the local level: Strengthening coping capacity Suitable urban planning, i.e. protection and extension of open spaces in inner cities New architecture Awareness building, because existing building stock is the main problem; thus individual actions are needed Impact: Population above 65y affected by heat events

  10. Parts of adaptive capacity: awareness, ability and action + + • Awareness indicators used: • Computer skills • Education expenditure • Ability Indicators used: • R&D expenditure • Patent applications • Road density • Hospital beds • Action indicators used: • Government effectiveness • National adaptation strategies • GDP per capita • Age dependence = adaptive capacity

  11. Aggregate adaptive capacity Adaptice capacity is low mainly in Southern and Eastern Europe These regions seems tobe less able to cope with and adapt to climate change These regions are mostly economically less competetive than other parts of Europe The additional challenge of climate change endangers territorial cohesion Average of 10 indicators

  12. For main adaptation objectives: Building adaptation capacity: relates directly towards a measure that builds or enhances government or societal awareness about adaptation, builds capacity to enable action. Reduction of risk and sensitivity: Actions can be undertaken to reduce the risk of damage and disruption, and reduce sensitivity of people, property, natural resources, and ecology to changed climatic conditions Increased coping capacity: during extreme or damaging events (response to extreme events). Capitalization on changed climatic conditions: some benefit might arise from any changed climatic condition. In this case an action might be undertaken to capitalize on such change. Source: Massey/ Bergsma: Assessing adaptation in 29 European Countries. Amsterdam 2008.

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions / mitigation capacities • Indicators used: • Carbon sinks • GDP • Education expenditure, policies and measures • R&D expenditure Low mitigation capacities mainly in Eastern Europe, but also Germany Europe 2020 report`s priority Sustainable growth: combating climate change through a significant reduction of emissions and the full exploitation of the potential of new technologies in order to also strengthen EU economies' resilience to climate risks, and the capacity for disaster prevention and response

  14. First response to policy questions • “While the need for co-ordination and integration across sectors, scales and levels is growing, the capacities to respond are frequently shrinking […]. While it is generally recognised that the role of spatial planning for climate mitigation and adaptation should be strengthened, the practice is not very well developed as yet.” (PEER Report No. 2: Climate Policy Integration, Coherence and Governance, p. 60). • Some recommendations: • Comprehensive strategies are needed that address mitigation and adaption together with other challenges such as demographic change (DEMIFER), resource shortages (ReRisk) and urban growth (EU-LUPA) • Climate proofing should be integrated in SEA • Concepts of resilience and no regret have to be operationalized for planning purposes • Dealing with uncertainty calls for flexible concepts which can be frequently adapted according to the results of a continuous monitoring of given vulnerability.

  15. Lessons learned from case studies - what regions and local communities are able to do 15

  16. Lessons learned from case studies - what regions and local communities are able to do - II 16

  17. Draft Final Report: End of February 2011 Final report: End of May 2011 Comparative study on nine EU countries aims at recommendations for strengthening the role of spatial planning in context of territorially differentiated adaptation strategies. Results are available in English: http://www.bbsr.bund.de/cln_016/nn_21684/BBSR/EN/Publications/BMVBS/Online/2010/DL__ON212010,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf/DL_ON212010.pdf 17

  18. Thank you for your attention Prof. Dr.-Ing. Stefan Greiving stefan.greiving@tu-dortmund.de 18

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