Money, Uncertainty and Time

1. Money, Uncertainty and Time Presentation prepared for the “Keynes Seminar”, Robinson College, University of Cambridge, 24th November 2009 By Giuseppe Fontana

2. Contents 1 Introduction: Money, Uncertainty and Time Part I: Keynes, the 'Classics' and the Modern Keynesian Dissent 2 The Historical Development of Dissent in Keynesian Economics 3 Methodology and Economic Theory in Keynes's General Theory Part II: From Rationality to Unemployment and the Monetary Circuit 4 A Two-Dimensional Theory of Probability and Knowledge 5 Uncertainty and Money Part III: Understanding Endogenous Money 6 Hicks as An Early Precursor of Endogenous Money Theory 7 Horizontalist and Structuralist Analyses of Endogenous Money 8 A General Theory of Endogenous Money

3. Introduction • Keynes and Keynesian Economics • Proposition 1: the Possibility of Involuntary Unemployment • Proposition 2: the Principle of Effective Demand • Proposition 3: the Principle of Policy Effectiveness • The Changing Nature of the Keynesian Dissent • First Principles: Money, Uncertainty and Time • Theory plus Methodology

4. Keynes, the 'Classics' and the Modern Keynesian Dissent • Chapter 2: The Historical Development of Dissent in Keynesian Economics • The Origins of Post Keynesian Economics • The Romantic Age: The Search for a Grand Theoretical System • The Age of Uncertainty: The Search for an Alternative Methodology

5. Keynes, the 'Classics' and the Modern Keynesian Dissent • Chapter 3: Methodology and Economic Theory in Keynes's General Theory • Keynes’s Method: Chapter 18 of the General Theory • Keynes versus the ‘Classics’: Scope and Method of Economics • Mr Keynes and the ‘Classics’ in Prospect

6. From Rationality to Unemployment and the Monetary Circuit • Chapter 4: A Two-Dimensional Theory of Probability and Knowledge • Probability Theory and Forms of Knowledge • On the Nature of Uncertainty • Paul Davidson and Non-ergodic / Monetary Post Keynesians on Uncertainty

8. From Rationality to Unemployment and the Monetary Circuit • Chapter 5: Uncertainty and Money • Uncertainty2, Money, and Involuntary Unemployment • Uncertainty1, Money, and the Production Process

11. Understanding Endogenous Money • Chapter 6: Hicks as an Early Precursor of Endogenous Money Theory • “Monetary theory is in ‘history’ ”: An Analytical and Historical Question • Single Period Theory vs. Continuation Theory • Time and Method in Endogenous Money Theory

12. Understanding Endogenous Money • Chapter 7: Horizontalist and Structuralist Analyses of Endogenous Money • The Horizontalist Analysis of Endogenous Money: • Loans Create Deposits > Deposits Make Reserves • The Structuralist Analysis of Endogenous Money • Liquidity preference of the household sector • Liquidity preference of the business sector • Liquidity preference of the commercial bank sector

15. Understanding Endogenous Money • Chapter 8: A General Theory of Endogenous Money • Controversial Issues • The market for monetary reserves • The credit market • The financial markets • A Single Period-Continuation Interpretation of the Controversial Issues