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Key Themes from Point Topic Tim Johnson www.point-topic.com Barriers to Broadband Workshop 1 February 2005. Key themes. Broadband stays on course UK, Western Europe, World A good year for the UK How to bridge the gaps and barriers Triple play solutions are in demand

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slide1

Key Themes from Point Topic

Tim Johnsonwww.point-topic.com

Barriers to Broadband Workshop1 February 2005

key themes
Key themes
  • Broadband stays on course
    • UK, Western Europe, World
  • A good year for the UK
  • How to bridge the gaps and barriers
  • Triple play solutions are in demand
  • Winners and losers for next-generation broadband

www.point-topic.com

136m broadband lines worldwide at 30 september 2004
136m broadband lines worldwide at 30 September 2004

Million lines

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004

www.point-topic.com

broadband lines worldwide
Broadband lines worldwide

www.point-topic.com

broadband lines in the uk
Broadband lines in the UK

www.point-topic.com

share of broadband lines by technology q3 2004
Share of broadband lines by technology Q3 2004

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004

www.point-topic.com

share of broadband lines by technology q2 2004
Share of broadband lines by technology Q2 2004

Source: Point Topic Q1 2004

www.point-topic.com

broadband is growing faster than mobile did world
Broadband is growing faster than mobile did (World)

Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004

www.point-topic.com

broadband is growing faster than mobile did uk
Broadband is growing faster than mobile did (UK)

Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004

www.point-topic.com

top ten broadband countries by number of lines q204 q304
Top Ten broadband countries by number of lines: Q204 - Q304

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004

www.point-topic.com

top ten broadband countries by penetration q3 2004
Top Ten broadband countries by penetration Q3 2004

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004, countries with at least 500,000 population

www.point-topic.com

second ten broadband countries by penetration q3 2004
Second Ten broadband countries by penetration Q3 2004

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004, countries with at least 500,000 population

www.point-topic.com

the uk has been growing faster than western europe
The UK has been growing faster than Western Europe

Source: Point Topic, H1 2004

www.point-topic.com

bt has the smallest share of the retail broadband market in the eu
BT has the smallest share of the retail broadband market in the EU

Source: ECTA, Point Topic

www.point-topic.com

the geographical divide an easy problem
The geographical divide: an “easy” problem
  • Improved technical solutions
    • new DSLAMs, rate adaptation etc
    • lower equipment costs
    • remote concentrators
  • Changed installation policies
    • lower trigger levels
    • more “can do” approach
  • Targeted investment
    • costs can be low compared with added value and social benefit

www.point-topic.com

the social divide a tough problem
The social divide: a tough problem
  • Multiple barriers to Internet and broadband take-up
    • Old people less than young people
    • Partly-educated people less than fully-educated people
    • Women less than men (but the difference is dissolving)
    • Poor people less than rich people
  • Take-up facing a 60% ceiling?
    • even in Korea only 66% of people use the Internet
    • most major countries see similar levels
    • but take-up at 80% and beyond in Scandinavia

www.point-topic.com

uk broadband has been growing fast so far
UK broadband has been growing fast so far

Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004

www.point-topic.com

bbc ideas to spread digital inclusion
BBC ideas to spread “digital inclusion”
  • “Provide a compelling reason to get a broadband connection”
  • iMP Interactive Media Player
    • using the Internet as a PVR
  • Digital literacy campaign - with others?
  • Radical reductions in the cost of access
    • low-cost access devices
    • “pay as you go” subscription model

www.point-topic.com

the business gap issues
The business gap: issues
  • Workplace penetration is very different from firm (SME) penetration
    • real penetration is much lower than statistics suggest
  • Progress of business-quality DSL is slow
    • barely 10% of business broadband lines - and falling?
  • Broadband take-up by business has been static for several years
    • but signs of an uptick in 2004, at least in the UK

www.point-topic.com

workplace based views show much lower levels of take up
Workplace-based views show much lower levels of take-up

Source: Point Topic estimates

www.point-topic.com

business quality dsl is growing only slowly
Business-quality DSL is growing only slowly

Source: Point Topic

www.point-topic.com

after years of stagnation internet trading is growing
After years of stagnation, Internet trading is growing

Source: DTI International Benchmarking Study 2004

www.point-topic.com

trailblazer isps

ISP

Country

Value-added offering

Bell Canada

Canada

Security services for residential and business customers

Catch Communications

Norway

Business-focused ISP that aims to make VPNs cheaper and simpler

FastWeb

Italy

Strong video and TV element in a triple-play bundle

Free

France

Voice-over-IP as part of residential triple-play bundles

SingTel

Singapore

Turbo button to boost download speeds

Sprint

USA

Bundled DSL, telephone and mobile offering to retain customers and maintain revenue

Trailblazer ISPs

www.point-topic.com

video over broadband pillar of strategy or bottomless pit
Video over Broadband: pillar of strategy or bottomless pit?
  • Making the business case is an uphill battle
    • competition, content, technology, opportunity
  • Sharp upturn in trials and services 2003-2004
    • about 50 projects identified worldwide
  • Good results where there is weak competition
    • disappointments where it is strong

www.point-topic.com

the year when voip erupted
The year when VoIP erupted
  • Yahoo Broadband Japan still by far the biggest
    • over 4m subscribers
    • next five have only 1m between them
  • Over 1,000 other providers up and running
  • Increasingly led by the desire to offer triple-play
    • pure-play VoIP fading, relatively
    • Skype and imitators settling in a (big) niche?

www.point-topic.com

some major voip players were well established by mid 2004
Some major VoIP players were well established by mid-2004

Source: Point Topic; figures mid-2004

www.point-topic.com

the telcos are frightened but the barriers to voip are high
The telcos are frightened, but the barriers to VoIP are high
  • Major VoIP successes depend on high local tariffs
  • Price-based competition is vulnerable to price cutting by big players
  • Customers are not yet convinced about VoIP quality and reliability
  • A disruptive technology - but regulators are only just starting to tackle the issues, such as numbering
  • VoIP operators proving slow to leverage the opportunity of interconnection

www.point-topic.com

contents
Contents
  • VDSL and VDSL2
  • ADSL2+
  • Symmetric DSL

www.point-topic.com

original vdsl a technology going nowhere
Original VDSL: a technology going nowhere?
  • Big in Asia-Pacific
      • mainly distributing FTTB inside MTUs
      • 2.2m lines in Korea alone - but levelling off
      • large numbers in China (6m?) and Japan
  • Very little public network VDSL
      • old projects not being extended
      • few new ones identified (Belgium, Norway, Slovenia)
      • “substantially all” shipments into FTTB buildouts

www.point-topic.com

will vdsl2 be different
Will VDSL2 be different?
  • Standard on a fast track?
      • first ratification Q3 2005; base standard soon after
      • driven by the US RBOCs; compromises to get agreement
  • Delivering 30Mbps up to 1.8km - eventually
  • What RBOCs need to offer full triple play?
      • two HiDef TV channels + data + VoIP
  • “A major technology in N. America in 2006”
        • Ramen Cohen, Metalink
  • Too disruptive for Europe?

www.point-topic.com

adsl2 the right technology at the right time
ADSL2+: the right technology at the right time?
  • Downstream speeds enough for realistic applications
  • Better range than original VDSL
  • Easier to integrate into an ADSL world
  • Annex J supports business symmetry requirement

www.point-topic.com

leading edge operators moving rapidly into adsl2
Leading-edge operators moving rapidly into ADSL2+
  • Sweden and Norway
      • 60,000 ADSL2+ ports by end-2004
  • Free (France)
      • migrating 1m customers to ADSL2+ “FreeBox”
      • 6Mbps downstream for Euro 30/month
  • Wanadoo (Netherlands)
      • 8Mbps/1Mbps for Euro88/month
  • BellSouth (USA)
      • will use ADSL2+ to trial a video offering

www.point-topic.com

symmetric dsl many choices slow take up
Symmetric DSL: many choices, slow take-up
  • SDSL
    • proprietary, mainly USA
  • SHDSL
    • ITU standard, industrial strength, still a niche
  • Symmetrical ADSLs
    • ADSL2+ Annex J could be the preferred choice
  • VDSL
    • some business offerings in special situations?

www.point-topic.com

1 2m symmetric dsl lines worldwide by end 2004
1.2m Symmetric DSL lines worldwide by end-2004

Source: Point Topic

www.point-topic.com

signs of stronger growth in future
Signs of stronger growth in future
  • Some uptick in business broadband in 2004
  • Arrival of ADSL2+ should make symmetric broadband cheaper and easier
  • SHDSL still has technical advantages
  • IP VPN more recognised as the unifying platform for business applications
  • IP-over-Ethernet seen as the coming technology

www.point-topic.com

slide50

Tim Johnson

www.point-topic.com

tim@point-topic.com+44 (0) 20 7551 9260

www.point-topic.com