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Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world. Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk. Thanks to ESRC-UPTAP & The British Academy. Religiosity. Affiliation/Denomination (Do you consider yourself a member of…) Attendance (How often do you attend?)

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islamism religiosity and fertility in the muslim world

Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim world

Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London

e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

Thanks to ESRC-UPTAP & The British Academy

religiosity
Religiosity
  • Affiliation/Denomination (Do you consider yourself a member of…)
  • Attendance (How often do you attend?)
  • Religiosity (Are you a religious person?)
  • Religious Traditionalism (Belief in Hell, Devil, Bible as word of God)

Different studies use one or more of these measures

religiosity and fertility
Religiosity and Fertility

"One of the most central injunctions of virtually all traditional religions is to strengthen the family, to encourage people to have children, to encourage women to stay home and raise children, and to forbid abortion, divorce, or anything that interferes with high rates of reproduction." (Norris and Inglehart 2004)

second demographic transition theory
Second Demographic Transition Theory
  • van de Kaa 1987; Surkyn and Lesthaeghe 2004
  • Lestaheghe and Neidert 2006

Thesis: As societies modernize, religiosity becomes a more important determinant of fertility

studies on religiosity and fertility
Studies on Religiosity and Fertility
  • Adsera 2004 on Spain between 1985 and 1999
  • Also finding a link: Lehrer 1996; Berghammer, Philipov, and Sobotka 2006; Kaufmann 2007, 2008
  • Mixed Results: Westoff and Jones (1979); Frejka and Westoff 2006
religious traditionalism and fertility
Religious Traditionalism and Fertility
  • Fargues (2000) and Berman (2000) on ultra-Orthodox Jews
  • Hout, Wilde and Greeley (2001) on Evangelical Protestants; Sherkat (2001) on Mormons and Hispanic Catholics
  • Berman and Stepanyan (2003) on Madrassa-attending Muslims
  • Little else on Islamism
muslim world
Muslim World
  • The religious cleavage between Islamists and Others (Secular Nationalists/Socialists/Liberals)
slide13

Figure 17

Source WVS 1999-2000. N=15197 cases. Question asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Bosnia, Iran, Morocco, Turkey, Uganda and Tanzania.

slide15

Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 7436 respondents. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

slide16

Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 7412 respondents. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

slide17

Agree With Sharia Law, Muslims in Islamic Countries, 1999-2000 WVS

Married/Children: weak +

Age: 25-54 -, younger and older in favour

Education: -

Town Size: + up to 500k

National Pride:+

GDP per Capita:+

Country Ed.: -

Country Fertility: +

islamism and fertility
Islamism and Fertility
  • Q: Will higher fertility endow Islamists with political leverage into the future?
  • Berman & Stepanyan (2003) find a significant but modest link between Madrassa attendance and fertility in four countries
  • This study uses WVS 1999-2000 dataset on 7-15 countries (depends on question)
slide22

Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 1649 respondents with High School or More, 3318 respondents with Less than High School. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

slide23

Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

sharia as law of land and desirable fertility in the country
Sharia as Law of Land and Desirable Fertility in the Country

ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005

having an islamic government where religious authorities have absolute power
Having an Islamic government, where religious authorities have absolute power

ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005

arda saudi egypt youth survey
ARDA Saudi & Egypt Youth Survey
  • 18-25; 1000 per country; 2005
  • Sharia, religiosity, attendance, prayer – all significant, but fall out of equation with country control
  • Islamist theocratic government remains significant after country controls
  • NB: No proper measure of town size in this survey
what s happening at macro level
What’s happening at macro level?
  • Abbasi-Shavazi finds that Iran, highly religious, has very low fertility
  • Religiosity and fertility related at individual level, but less so at national level
slide28

Figure 7

Source: Goldstone 2007

slide29

Religiosity and Fertility in Muslim Countries, 2000

Egypt

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Iran

Morocco

Tanzania

Uganda

Pakistan

Azerbaijan

'95-97

Jordan

Indonesia

Turkey

Bosnia

Albania 2000

Albania '95-97

Algeria

Source: 2000 WVS and World Bank.

conclusions fertility
Conclusions: Fertility
  • In Muslim developing countries, unlike other developing countries, higher national religiosity is associated with lower fertility
  • Islamists in Muslim countries are more fertile; some evidence for sharpened fertility effect in more 'modern' contexts, i.e. cities, the educated
  • But effect still modest: Muslim Religious Fertility Dynamics more like USA and Europe than Israel
  • The growth of the religious population through fertility is a long-term process, unlike Israel
future research
Future Research
  • Would like to do projections
  • Religious Affiliation (including ‘none’) :
    • Fertility (children ever born)
    • Age structure
  • Religious Intensity (attendance, belief, theology)
    • All of the above, plus:
    • Religion now and at age 16*
wish list data issues
Wish List & Data Issues
  • WVS coverage is patchy, esp. for sharia question. Need a wide range of countries
  • Would like to be able to distinguish by sect (Shia, etc), by Islamism (Literalism, contraception; specifics of sharia: alcohol, headscarf, divorce; Islamic government) and by intensity (prayer, mosque attendance, madrassa attendance), and traditionalism(women’s role, dowry, access to contraception, etc)
  • Need the above now and at age 16
data sources
Data Sources

Also:

1) Gallup World Poll (I may have access)

2) DHS, Family Fertility Surveys

3) IPUMS, Census

See IIASA project website: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~terama/Relig.html

slide44
Future Research: projections of religious and Islamist populations for Muslim world, Europe, North America
  • Own project: http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html
  • IIASA projections project: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~terama/Relig.html