Applications of Probability & Probability in the Media Learning Goal: I can interpret information involving the use of probability and statistics in the media, and make connections between probability and statistics (e.g., statistics can be used to generate probabilities).
Predicting Outcomes • Making predictions about large numbers of events is much more accurate than making predictions about a few events • ie. flipping a coin twice vs 1000 times • The same theory is applied to • Insurance • Likelihood of developing a disease & chance of survival • Gambling at casinos
To Insure or Not to Insure? "Wow, great new phone! How much did that set you back?“ - Alice"Don't ask - mega bucks! Do you know what it can do ...“ - Tom1 month later ..."I've just got a new phone! Bet yours can't do what mine can!“- Alice"I haven't got mine any more. I lost it ... actually, I think it got stolen.“ - Tom"But you had insurance, didn't you?“ - Alice"No, I didn't think it was worth it.“ - Tom"Mine's insured - I wouldn't want to lose it!“ - Alice"But how much did that set you back?“ - Tom"Enough, but at least I don't have to worry about losing my phone!“ - AliceTom's new phone cost him $500. He didn't insure it. Alice's new phone cost her $500 also. She did insure it, at an additional cost of $75. 1) What difference does it make if the 10% risk of losing a phone is 1% or 25%? 2) If 10 000 people buy a new phone, how many insured phones should the company expect to replace? How many insurance plans would have to be sold to offset this cost? 3) Is the insurance company making money on insurance if 20% of people buy plans?
Probability of Dying Based on the reading: • Why might someone think it is likely they would die in a natural disaster (ie. Tsunami)? • List three 3 ways of dying that would be more probable than a natural disaster • Has the probability of the Earth being hit by an asteroid changed since 1994? Using the table: • If a person dies at the age of 24 is it more likely that they would die of heart disease or a motor vehicle accident? Explain. • If the population of Cambridge is 133 000, how many of the current Cambridge residents should you expect to die by drowning? • How many of the top 10 “ways to die” do you think are preventable?
Statistics of • Recall: Statistics can be used to create experimental probability. (typically used when it is not possible to calculate a theoretical probability) • Use the stats provided to calculate the experimental probability of various calls and answer follow-up questions.