Are we losing the Race Between Population Growth and Food Supply?

1. Are we losing the Race Between Population Growth and Food Supply? Nicole Vaughan and Victoria Vogel 10/12/10 ECON 0428

2. Past Trends (Johnson, 2002)

3. Past Trends • In recent decades, global food production has kept pace with population growth (Kravdal, 2001). • Technological advances have led to increases in the productivity of both labor and land. • Substitutes for land • New Crop Varieties • Increases in Education

4. Future Trends (Bongaarts, 1996)

5. Future Trends • Available Arable Land • Increasing Crop Yields • Increasing Crop Frequency • Percent Direct Human Consumption • Improved Efficiency

6. Key Variables in the Food Supply System (Bongaarts, 1996)

7. Future Trends • The rate of population growth and the rate of per capita food consumption are expected to reach zero after 2050 (Bongaarts, 1996). • Based on past increases in crop yield and projections for the future, food production is likely to keep pace with population growth. • Changing Preferences • Increased Meat Consumption • Increased Caloric Intake

8. Future Trends • Potential Obstacles • Short-run increases in Food Prices. • Potential Difficulties in Importing/Exporting Food • Poverty • Limited accessibility of food due to income barriers. • Malnutrition concentrated in poor populations. • Environmental Degradation • Deforestation • Land Degradation • Loss of Biodiversity • Increased Carbon Footprint

9. Future Trends • Favorable Results of Population Growth • Increases in Human Capital • Labor • More people working in agriculture. • Knowledge • More people working in other sectors.

10. Conclusion • We have the ability to produce enough food for a growing global population. • Technological advancements • Increased human capital • In order to insure food stability for everyone, we have to see improvements in food accessibility for those who need it most. • Increased income equality • Improvements in distribution networks