Capstone

1. Capstone Design Investment for Higher Profits

2. INDEX Introduction Specific plan Value investing Technical investing Investment & Result

3. INDEX Member Decision of Subject 01 Introduction &plan

4. 1 Introduction Decision of Subject • Investment of stocks • Recently, Global economic crisis, exchange rate, object economy crisis are magnified as issue. • This circumstances are associated with stock market directly. And they are increasing many variables and risks. Actually, stock market is showing unstable index. • Q. What relations does it have between stock and several variability • Q. Can i earn profits? by investment, under unstable circumstance, • We are going to solve questions by data which are analyzed and are measured by using statistics.

5. 1 Introduction Decision of Subject • Focus • Does it have economical efficiency? And how much does it have? • Does it have risk? And can you avoid? • Does it objectify by using statistics? • Which methods will you use?

6. 1 Introduction Team Member Dami Lim Collect information, Design Dohyun Cha, Chief Analysis, Design JaehyungRyu Collect information, Design

7. Specific Plan 02 Process

8. 2 Process Specific Plan Collect data

9. 2 Process Specific Plan • Rules • - Stocks will be chosen fluidly, • We are going to check a stock market flow everyday • We will consider reinvesting, if stock price decline • We will apply to securities virtual investment program • We are going to do feedback after checking profits and loss, every week

10. 2 Process Specific Plan • Analysis method of data • Chart analysis(technical analysis) • Supply-demand analysis • fundamental analysis • Disclosure analysis • Market Report • Analysis of variance

11. 03 Value Investing 1st Mathod 1stmathod

12. 1 1st Method – Value Investing Value Investing We decided to investigate value investing first This method analyze fundamental elements of company, for example asset, debt ratio, earnings, talent of management We can judge sound finance and value of the future after that We are going to explain process of analysis of Buffett, next page

13. 1 1st Method – Value Investing Process of Value Investing Is It a promising company(Does it produce necessaries? and have monopoly power?) Does it try to minimize debt running finance conservatively? Relative value for Earning rateand treasury bond Does it show mounting trend and high profit to us consistently? Check official announcement and business report, ability of management Forecasting earning rate by rate of growth of EPS annually Does it overrun average of return of equity? Does it raise price freely when increase in inflation? Does it need any amount of expense for improving facilities or factory?

14. 1 1st Method – Value Investing • If so, • Which results we can get?? in case of investing and analyzing domestic company by method of Buffett • So we will analyze company and verify result of investment after choosing one company next page • Standard • We will choose a market leader or major company randomly • And choose only IPO company because it was compared and verified using by the past data

15. 1 1st Method – Value Investing • POSCO • We think that POSCO have consumer monopoly-power, because it is seizing domestic market • share over 65% • We think that it have business structure easy-understanding • Then from now on we are going to analyze POSCO using by method of Buffett

16. 1 1st Method – Value Investing Is It a promising company(Does it produce necessaries? and have monopoly power?) Steel industry is decided on price and profit by global situation and demand. But POSCO is industry leader seizing market, and it is NO1. as combined steel mill Does it try to minimize debt running finance conservatively? In 2010, POSCO’s long-term debt is 7t 200b, total debt is 11t 100b, rate of debt is about 37% Additionally,net profit is 4trillion so finance is sound

17. 1 1st Method – Value Investing Does it show mounting trend and high profit to us consistently? 12% -9% • net profit increased consistently during past 10y except for 2006y, 2009y • average rate of growth is about 12% during 10y, but recent 5y of rate of growth • is volatile

18. 1 1st Method – Value Investing Check official announcement and business report, ability of management • according to business report , POSCO is buying treasury stock consistently and retiring • share . If share is retired, share outstanding is decrease and EPS is increase • POSCO is having treasury stock over 11% of total • We know that management increase wealth using by accumulated earnings. • Management accumulated 3.1t 452b won from 2001 to 2010, and they divided about 6t • to share holder out of accumulated earnings

19. 1 1st Method – Value Investing Does it overrun average of return of equity? POSCO’s return of equity average is 14% during past 10y. It is safe because it overran domestic average, Domestic average = 12%

20. 1 1st Method – Value Investing Does it raise price freely when increase in inflation? • Price is move by business fluctuation and demand than price index. So price fluctuation • is difficult • Management is forecasting increase price of product including 열연강판 냉연강판 etc. • Because of rising nation of growth and increasing steel demand of global Does it need any amount of expense for improving facilities or factory? • 1.5% ofsales is expended to R&D cost, and trillions of won have been spent for facility • every year • A mort of money sometimes make entry barrier

21. 1 1st Method – Value Investing • Until now we know what POSCO’s value is high by several analysis methods • But this is not finish • we should calculate relative value, supposing we invest risk free assets and forecast • rate of return using by EPS yearly • NEXT • We will investigate Technical method and compare between value investing

22. 04 Technical investing 2nd Method 2nd method

23. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing Technical Investing Technical investing put more weigh pillar, daily base and weekly base, demand information than fundamental information This method is a little different from value investing method of buffett In order word, it find suitable timing by concentrating on chart than fundamental So from now we are going to explain about technical investing method

24. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing Process of Technical investing Candlestick move chart We find answer by trend We decide willingness of investment by analyzing company Trading method using day moving average Analysis method using trading volume

25. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing 1. Candlestick move chart White candlestick - Rise Blue candlestick - Drop When stick made some shapes, we can forecast rise or drop in stock Pattern One candlestick– umbrella, belt-hold line, cross, shooting star, inverted hammer Two candlestick– engulfing, pierce, cloud, harami, counterattack, isolation, tongs Three candlestick– star, two crows

26. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing Important point - Stick preferred on practice are cross sign and pole sign - Stick having highest probability is touching on Golden-Cross and red stick confirmed supporting line - Key point is that should decide timing after the end of market

27. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing 2. We find answer by trend • Trend is important to investment, because we can forecast stock price, rise or drop continuously • trend is difficult to change direction • If you catch trend, you can analyze overall trend of stock

28. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing 3. Trading method using day moving average • 5day MA – show average flow of stocks during 5day • 20dayMA – show average flow of stocks during month, called influence line • 60dayMA – show average flow of stocks during quarter • 120dayMA – used when analyze middle of year and understand economy • 240dayMA – used when long-term inverstment • If 5day MA overcome 20day MA, it is possible to support 20day MA , but soaring • stocks are exception • And if short-term MA overcome long-term MA, it is best timing for investment • From now on we are going to analyze POSCO's chart actually

29. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing POSCO – Chart

30. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing POSCO – Chart

31. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing POSCO – Demand chart

32. 1 2nd Method – Technical investing POSCO – Demand chart

33. 1 1st Method – Value Investing • Demand trend do not show trading pattern of institution and foreigner • EURO risk aggravating investor's confidence • I think stock price will recovered in the long-term, because there's no exchange distribution • Short-term MA will anticipated overcoming trend line and long-term MA after a week • And stock price will rise because price forming in the down of box • We are going to trade after checking Golden cross • NEXT • We confirmed soundness and it is suitable for trade technically, So we are going to buy stock of POSCO, and then wait and see market situation

34. We analyzed POSCO by fundamental method and technical method We could know appropriate timing and potential of POSCO So we decided to buy the stock 05 Investment & Result

35. 2 Investment & Result • This is chart of POSCO • Point marked red is rising point forecasting last week • It dropped in 5th Dec. but it will rise again in the short term, because long-term MA • supporting short-term MA

36. 2 Investment & Result This is price of POSCO , we can see rising 22,000won in 1st Dec. it rose about 10% from 28th Nov to 2nd Dec Our investing timing is 2nd Dec, 5th, 6th Total is -2,500 394,000 +3,500 – 3,500 – 2,500 = 392,000 (-2500)

37. 2 Investment & Result • Result • POSCO rose as forecasting, but we were damaged 2,500won because traded stock in the next day • If we invested a day earlier, we make profits over 20,000 • Opinion • - Wedidn't obtain competent result, because of wrong process , so we waste much time • We analyzed and invested. although we were damaged, we forecasted investing timing • exactly. If we have much time, we will make more profits

38. Q&A

39. THANK YOU