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Household Survey Summary Results (Sept-Jan) - District Government Attitudes and Security Insights

This report presents findings from two waves of a household survey conducted between September 2010 and February 2011 in Afghanistan. With approximately 4,800 diverse samples across several districts, the survey examines attitudes toward district government and perceptions of security. Key insights show a mixed sentiment toward government services and significant influences of local militias on security perceptions. Notably, while electricity showed degrading satisfaction, other areas, like roads, exhibited improvement trends. The report highlights critical areas for future development.

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Household Survey Summary Results (Sept-Jan) - District Government Attitudes and Security Insights

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  1. HMEP Household SurveySummary of ResultsSept-Jan

  2. THE SAMPLECAVEAT EMPTOR • Wave 1 (Sept-Oct 2010) • ~2300 samples (Garmser, LashkarGah, Nad Ali, NarriSarranj, Nawa) • Wave 2 (Jan-Feb 2011) • ~2300 new (not repeat) samples from those districts, • added ~1500 samples from NawZad, Musa Qala, Sangin, and Reg • Diverse, non-representative sample • >350 samples per district • Broad tribal representation across all Districts • ~90% rural • ~30% had some history of being displaced • ~40% admitted income from poppy production

  3. DISTRICT SAMPLE

  4. TRIBE Breakdown

  5. ATTITUDES TOWARD DISTRICT GOVERNMENT • Question:Over the last 12 months in your District, the District Government has… Improved _____ • Asked about…Education, Health, Roads, Urban Infrastructure, Security on Roads, Security in Urban Areas, Electricity Supply, Irrigation, Drinking Water, Reduced Govt, Corruption, Access to Info, Central Bazaar, Jobs, Taxes, Listening, Justice • Trends and Analysis: • Government corruption and electricity have most unfavorable baselines • Electricity has negative trend • Roads and road security seen positively and improving • Except for electricity, all trends are positive or neutral • Question: Over the next six months, do you see each of the following in your district improving, staying the same, or worsening? • Answer: Mild positive trend for all questions over all Districts except electricity

  6. OVERALL SECURITY: STATUS Overall improvement, LashgarGah is weakest. Wave 2 shows strong baseline across all Districts.

  7. CONTRIBUTORS TO SECURITY IMPROVEMENT • How satisfied are you with each of the following’s role in keeping the district secure? • Trends from September to January • District Authority: decreased satisfaction • Police: decreased satisfaction • Army: very dramatically decreased satisfaction • ISAF: increased satisfaction • Local Militia: strongly increased satisfaction • Taliban: very strongly increased satisfaction • All shifts consistent through all Districts • Taliban and Army (dis)satisfaction moves significant (1.5+ pts) in every District

  8. HMEP SURVEY CONCLUSIONS • Perceptions about District Government and GIRoA…All Districts • Ability to deliver services and be responsive – neutral, trends are mildly positive • Efforts to decrease poppy production and improve agricultural opportunities -- not seen as important, not increasing • People anticipate improvement in the future • Security Improving -- Urban Centers, Roads, and Overall • Improvement attributed to Militia and Taliban • Dissatisfied with Army and Police

  9. BACK UP

  10. Survey Methodology Concerns • Huge wealth of unmineddemographic information • Potential insights correlating demo to (dis)satisfaction • Codebook (.xls) and document vary • Questions in the document not asked • Observations are not pair-able • Wave 1 and wave 2 vary • Added districts; composition w.r.t. district • Questions’ wording • Questions’ sequence • Scales vary • 1..3, 1..4, 1..5 • 1 = good & 1 = bad

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