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Denton ISD Economic and Housing Analysis 4Q12

Denton ISD Economic and Housing Analysis 4Q12. Denton ISD Foreclosures 4Q12. Denton ISD - 61. 50% lower than same time a year ago. ISD New Home Ranking Report 4Q12. Denton ISD New Housing Activity. 2012 starts up 31% over 2011. Most closings since 3Q10. Annual Closing

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Denton ISD Economic and Housing Analysis 4Q12

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  1. Denton ISDEconomic and Housing Analysis4Q12

  2. Denton ISD Foreclosures 4Q12 Denton ISD - 61 50% lower than same time a year ago

  3. ISD New Home Ranking Report 4Q12

  4. Denton ISD New Housing Activity • 2012 starts up 31% over 2011. • Most closings since 3Q10.

  5. Annual Closing Distribution, 4Q12

  6. Vacant Developed Lots, 4Q12

  7. Overall Housing Data by Elementary Attendance Zone

  8. Enrollment History *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 150 Student swing 2011 KG - 3rd = 8,404 2011 9th - 12th = 6,631 Difference = 1,773 Gap between elementary grades and secondary grades is large but closing.

  9. Future Lots, 4Q12 Cole Ranch Hunter Ranch

  10. Future Residential Development US 380 Corridor Spiritas Ranch West 1,217 Futures Savannah 717 Futures Cross Oaks Ranch 786 Futures Spiritas Ranch East 608 Futures • 2012 New Home Analysis • 586 Starts • 484 Closings • 7,368 Occupied • 277 Inventory • 758 Vacant Developed Lots • 5,032 Future Lots Paloma Creek South 1,119 Futures

  11. Future Residential Development North Denton • 2012 New Home Analysis • 22 Starts • 26 Closings • 1,587 Occupied • 11 Inventory • 55 Vacant Developed Lots • 2,200 Future Lots* Clear Creek Ranch 441 Futures Hills of Denton & Hills of Denton North 7,392 SF, 1,756 MF Windsor Oaks Addn. 376 Future * Does not include Hills of Denton Beaver Creek Add. 378 Future Kings Ridge Estates 653 Future

  12. Future Residential Development IH 35W Southwest The Vintage 240 Futures Cole Ranch 6,182 SF, 2,621 MF - Futures Robson Ranch 1,454 Futures • 2012 New Home Analysis • 92 Starts • 95 Closings • 2,294 Occupied • 42 Inventory • 387 Vacant Developed Lots • 2,676 Future Lots* Hunters Ranch 9,682 SF, 5,560 MF - Futures * Does not include Cole Ranch or Hunters Ranch Country Lakes North 979 Futures

  13. Future Residential Development South / Lantana • 2012 New Home Analysis • 156 Starts • 140 Closings • 3,110 Occupied • 89 Inventory • 340 Vacant Developed Lots • 85 Future Lots Lantana / Bandera. 26 Futures Vacant developed lots Lantana / Carlisle Add. 56 Futures

  14. 2013/14 Enrollment Projection

  15. Understanding Recent High School Boundary Change 2011/12 HS Boundary 2012/13 HS Boundary

  16. Denton ISD Overview • DISD 990 New home starts in 2012 highest start rate since 2008. • New housing market positioned for growth in 2013 as builder confidence appears to be high. • District in position for enrollment growth of 891 (3.5%) growth by fall 2013. • District enrollment should exceed 30,000 by the fall of 2017. • DISD can expect all grade levels to exceed 2,000 students by 2018 • DISD can expect an increase of approximately 10,000 students during the next 10 years. • 2022/23 enrollment projection 35,765

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