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Climate Change

Climate Change. October 29, 2007 By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law). The Greenhouse Effect. 380. 360. 340. *. 320. *. *. *. *. *. 300. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. 280. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. 260. 900. 1000.

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Climate Change

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  1. Climate Change October 29, 2007 By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law)

  2. The Greenhouse Effect

  3. 380 360 340 * 320 * * * * * 300 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 280 * * * * * * * * * * * * * 260 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 CO2 Levels are More Than 30% Higher Than Pre-industrialized Levels 372ppm in 2002 CO2 Concentration (ppmv) Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are now at levels unprecedented in at least the past 400,000 years

  4. The Carbon Cycle What is a Carbon Sink?

  5. Green House Gases (GHGs) • Carbon Dioxide • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Sulphur hexafluoride • Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) • Perflurocarbons Up to 20,000 times more potent than CO2 Come from diverse sources: from wetlands and cow burps to transportation and industry

  6. Average Global Temperature Has Increased by Approximately 0.60 Since the Late 19th Century

  7. Temperature Patterns in Canada will Change Substantially by 2050 What are GCM’s?

  8. Heat Waves in Canadian Cities are Expected to Become More Frequent Number of days above 300 C … and warmer weather means the possible arrival of exotic diseases

  9. Much of Canada’s Coastline is Sensitive to Sea-level Rise … and melting sea ice has implications for Arctic sovereignty

  10. The General Effects • Higher temperatures will effect eco-systems • Flooding of coastal areas • Storms more severe and frequent • Floods and Droughts

  11. Lightning damage Ecological disaster Floods Wind damage Structural damage Loss of life Extreme Events Can Cause Many Types of Disasters Fires

  12. The Risk of Forest Fires Will Increase

  13. Coastal Erosion Means Buildings, Roads and Railways Will Have to be Moved

  14. …and Finally There are Small Risks of Impacts of Catastrophic Proportions

  15. Primary Sources of GHGs • Burning fossil fuels • Industry • Transportation • Refrigeration systems • Deforestation • Agriculture and livestock • Volcanoes The problem is not just about increasing sources, but also the reduction of ‘sinks’

  16. Not Just Warming • Some places will experience cooling • Longer Growing Season • Animals winter outside • Changes in water distribution – flooding and droughts • Melting glaciers and rising sea level • Spread of Tropical Diseases • Storms will be more frequent and more violent

  17. Impacts of Climate Change • Impacts are felt on many different scales • Local – urban heat • Regional – Arctic, Prairies, Maritimes • National – Becomes a warmer country • Global – Environmental refugees

  18. Impacts in Other Countries Have Implications for Canada • Environmental refugees • 3 billion more in water stressed regions • 200 million more displaced by sea level rise • 80 million more malnourished • Offshore disasters • Financial assistance • Peace making/keeping • International conflict over dwindling natural resources • Darfur (Sudan)

  19. State of Play of Climate Change • Science is clear – serious problem that needs to be dealt with immediately • Must be dealt with at global level • Emission reductions can take place anywhere in world • Global Convention 1992 • Kyoto Protocol 1997 • Protocol ratified in 2002, in effect 2003

  20. Climate Change Plan Canada’s “Kyoto Gap” Projected 2010 Business as Usual Emissions: 809 Mt 2001 Emissions: 720 Mt Business as Usual “Kyoto Gap”: 270 Mt Million tonnes (Mt) CO2 equivalent 1990 Emissions: 607 Mt Kyoto Target -6%: 571 Mt

  21. … and Canada is Furthest From its Target Per cent difference between 2002 emissions and Kyoto targets *These countries have reached or surpassed their Kyoto target in 2002 but in France and the United Kingdom emissions started to increase in 2002

  22. So What is Needed? • New sources of energy • New technologies • New ways of doing business • Responsible extraction and use of resources • New social/community values • Regulations, taxes, trade in emissions • Incentives, rewards, recognition • Leadership

  23. What Has Happened Since Kyoto? • Main elements of program in place but very slow implementation • Conservative government backed out but now is legally obligated to follow-up on Kyoto commitments • 30% increase in CO2 emissions

  24. Commissioner on Environment and Sustainable Development • “Achieving success on a problem as pervasive as climate change demands that all levels of government, industry and business groups, science, academia, and civil society organizations collaborate.” • “…developing and deploying new technology will play a key role in building a healthier and more sustainable future. Canadians will have the opportunity to contribute and compete at home and globally.” Johanne Gelinas, 2006 Commissioners Report to Parliament

  25. Canada’s Clean Air Plan (Oct 2006) • New baseline of 2003 • Intensity targets up to 2020 • Emission caps for sectors 2020 to 2030 • National target 45-65% reduction by 2050 • Kyoto not mentioned • Canada subject to Kyoto penalties Good enough?

  26. Takeaways • Climate change is real and already happening • “greatest challenge to humanity this century” • Global approach essential but Canada not pulling its weight • Technology is seen as being integral to combat climate change • Full long-term consequences unknown

  27. The End

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