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Climate Change. October 29, 2007 By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law). The Greenhouse Effect. 380. 360. 340. *. 320. *. *. *. *. *. 300. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. 280. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. *. 260. 900. 1000.

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climate change

Climate Change

October 29, 2007

By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law)

co 2 levels are more than 30 higher than pre industrialized levels

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CO2 Levels are More Than 30% Higher Than Pre-industrialized Levels

372ppm in 2002

CO2 Concentration (ppmv)

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are now at levels unprecedented in at least the past 400,000 years

the carbon cycle
The Carbon Cycle

What is a Carbon Sink?

green house gases ghgs
Green House Gases (GHGs)
  • Carbon Dioxide
  • Methane
  • Nitrous oxide
  • Sulphur hexafluoride
  • Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)
  • Perflurocarbons

Up to 20,000 times more potent than CO2

Come from diverse sources: from wetlands and cow burps to transportation and industry

slide8

Heat Waves in Canadian Cities are Expected to Become More Frequent

Number of days above 300 C

… and warmer weather means the possible arrival of exotic diseases

much of canada s coastline is sensitive to sea level rise
Much of Canada’s Coastline is Sensitive to Sea-level Rise

… and melting sea ice has implications for Arctic sovereignty

the general effects
The General Effects
  • Higher temperatures will effect eco-systems
  • Flooding of coastal areas
  • Storms more severe and frequent
  • Floods and Droughts
extreme events can cause many types of disasters

Lightning damage

Ecological

disaster

Floods

Wind

damage

Structural damage

Loss of

life

Extreme Events Can Cause Many Types of Disasters

Fires

primary sources of ghgs
Primary Sources of GHGs
  • Burning fossil fuels
    • Industry
    • Transportation
  • Refrigeration systems
  • Deforestation
  • Agriculture and livestock
  • Volcanoes

The problem is not just about increasing sources, but also the reduction of ‘sinks’

not just warming
Not Just Warming
  • Some places will experience cooling
  • Longer Growing Season
  • Animals winter outside
  • Changes in water distribution – flooding and droughts
  • Melting glaciers and rising sea level
  • Spread of Tropical Diseases
  • Storms will be more frequent and more violent
impacts of climate change
Impacts of Climate Change
  • Impacts are felt on many different scales
    • Local – urban heat
    • Regional – Arctic, Prairies, Maritimes
    • National – Becomes a warmer country
    • Global – Environmental refugees
impacts in other countries have implications for canada
Impacts in Other Countries Have Implications for Canada
  • Environmental refugees
    • 3 billion more in water stressed regions
    • 200 million more displaced by sea level rise
    • 80 million more malnourished
  • Offshore disasters
    • Financial assistance
    • Peace making/keeping
  • International conflict over dwindling natural resources
    • Darfur (Sudan)
state of play of climate change
State of Play of Climate Change
  • Science is clear – serious problem that needs to be dealt with immediately
  • Must be dealt with at global level
  • Emission reductions can take place anywhere in world
  • Global Convention 1992
  • Kyoto Protocol 1997
  • Protocol ratified in 2002, in effect 2003
canada s kyoto gap

Climate Change Plan

Canada’s “Kyoto Gap”

Projected 2010 Business as Usual Emissions:

809 Mt

2001 Emissions:

720 Mt

Business as Usual “Kyoto Gap”: 270 Mt

Million tonnes (Mt) CO2 equivalent

1990 Emissions: 607 Mt

Kyoto Target -6%: 571 Mt

and canada is furthest from its target
… and Canada is Furthest From its Target

Per cent difference between 2002 emissions and Kyoto targets

*These countries have reached or surpassed their Kyoto target in 2002 but in France and the United Kingdom emissions started to increase in 2002

so what is needed
So What is Needed?
  • New sources of energy
  • New technologies
  • New ways of doing business
  • Responsible extraction and use of resources
  • New social/community values
  • Regulations, taxes, trade in emissions
  • Incentives, rewards, recognition
  • Leadership
what has happened since kyoto
What Has Happened Since Kyoto?
  • Main elements of program in place but very slow implementation
  • Conservative government backed out but now is legally obligated to follow-up on Kyoto commitments
  • 30% increase in CO2 emissions
commissioner on environment and sustainable development
Commissioner on Environment and Sustainable Development
  • “Achieving success on a problem as pervasive as climate change demands that all levels of government, industry and business groups, science, academia, and civil society organizations collaborate.”
  • “…developing and deploying new technology will play a key role in building a healthier and more sustainable future. Canadians will have the opportunity to contribute and compete at home and globally.”

Johanne Gelinas, 2006 Commissioners Report to Parliament

canada s clean air plan oct 2006
Canada’s Clean Air Plan (Oct 2006)
  • New baseline of 2003
  • Intensity targets up to 2020
  • Emission caps for sectors 2020 to 2030
  • National target 45-65% reduction by 2050
  • Kyoto not mentioned
  • Canada subject to Kyoto penalties

Good enough?

takeaways
Takeaways
  • Climate change is real and already happening
  • “greatest challenge to humanity this century”
  • Global approach essential but Canada not pulling its weight
  • Technology is seen as being integral to combat climate change
  • Full long-term consequences unknown