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Item #2. Final Version 2.2 Travel Demand Model Documentation Part II. Presentation to the TPB Travel Forecasting Subcommittee Ron Milone March 21, 2008. TFS_Pres_Ver2.2model_3_21_2008.ppt. Recent Events . Final Documentation on Website. Version 2.2 Documentation. What’s included:

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final version 2 2 travel demand model documentation part ii

Item #2

Final Version 2.2 Travel Demand Model DocumentationPart II

Presentation to the

TPB Travel Forecasting Subcommittee

Ron Milone

March 21, 2008

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

TFS_Pres_Ver2.2model_3_21_2008.ppt

recent events
Recent Events

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

final documentation on website
Final Documentation on Website

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

version 2 2 documentation
Version 2.2 Documentation
  • What’s included:
    • Overview of features & description (Ch. 1)
    • Inputs & model specification (Ch. 2-8)
    • Validation (Ch. 9)
    • User’s application guide (Ch. 10-21)
    • Technical appendix
      • Detailed model output summaries
      • Application listings (scripts, batch files, etc.)
      • Flowcharts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

distinguishing features of ver 2 2
Distinguishing Features of Ver. 2.2
  • Commercial vehicle model added
  • Revised/moderated external traffic forecasts
  • Revised volume-delay functions and added queuing delay function to freeway volume-delay formulation
  • Reduction/removal of model adjustments (K factors, etc.)
  • 60 Iterations of user equilibrium traffic assignment

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

latest refinements 1 of 3 modified approach for disabling dummy links from queuing delay
Latest Refinements: #1 of 3Modified approach for disabling ‘dummy links’ from queuing delay
  • Revised approach identifies link disabling on a time-of-day basis; this is more accurate

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

latest refinements 2 of 3 modified highway toll skims development wrt the mode choice model
Latest Refinements: #2 of 3Modified highway toll skims development wrt. the mode choice model
  • Highway skims are normally developed by mode (SOV, HOV 2-occ, HOV 3+occ) and include time, distance, toll
  • Tolls are now expressed differently, based on toll policy type:
    • Fixed toll facilities (e.g., Gov. Nice Bridge, Dulles Toll Road)
    • Variably priced toll facilities (HOT Lanes in Virginia, electronic toll lanes in Md.)

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

latest refinements 3 of 3 modified highway toll skims development wrt the mode choice model
Latest Refinements: #3 of 3Modified highway toll skims development wrt. the mode choice model

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

previous and revised traffic growth projections at all external stations
Previous and Revised Traffic Growth Projections at all External Stations

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

slide11

Note: V2.1D#50 model results are based on Round 7.0a Cooperative Forecasts;

V2.2 model results are based on Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecasts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

slide12

Note: V2.1D#50 model results are based on Round 7.0a Cooperative Forecasts;

V2.2 model results are based on Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecasts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

slide13

Note: V2.1D#50 model results are based on Round 7.0a Cooperative Forecasts;

V2.2 model results are based on Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecasts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

p a balance over time based on v2 2 trip generation and round 7 1 coop forecasts
P/A Balance Over TimeBased on V2.2 Trip Generation and Round 7.1 Coop. Forecasts

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

special modeling applications reference page 1 10 in model report
Special Modeling Applications(Reference page 1-10 in Model Report)
  • Some forecasts are developed using elements of two model executions. This approach is used to reflect special policy conditions:
    • Transit constraint: 2010 transit trips are used to constrain modeled 2020, 2030 transit trips to/through the regional ‘core’
    • HOT lane modeling: HOV level-of-service matrices are specially developed in ‘initial’ model executions; the ‘initial’ HOV skims are used in the ‘final’ model execution

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

transit constraint applied in 2020 2030 simulations
Transit Constraint (Applied in 2020, 2030 simulations)
  • Reason: Infrastructure limitations will constrain peak Metrorail travel to/through the regional ‘core’ to 2010 levels
  • Approach:
    • 2010 model run is executed; 2010 final iteration transit trips created
    • 2020/ 2030 model runs are executed; after mode choice step, peak transit trips to/through the regional core are compared to 2010 levels.
    • 2020/2030 peak transit trips exceeding 2010 levels are converted to auto trips

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

hot lane modeling applied in 2010 2020 2030 simulations
HOT Lane Modeling (Applied in 2010, 2020, 2030 simulations)
  • Reason: VA policy assumes that HOV service levels will be maintained with HOT lane operation
  • Approach:
    • An initial run is executed with the HOT lane facility simulated as an HOV-priority facility (hypothetical). HOV level of service (LOS) matrices for each iteration are developed. This is known as a ‘BASE’ model execution
    • A second model run is executed, with the HOT lane facility accordingly coded (pay SOV’s and free HOV’s are allowed access). Initial tolls rates are used. The final assignment is then run iteratively, so that tolls rates are developed by segment and time-period (off-line step)
    • A final run utilizes the HOV LOS matrices developed in Step 1 with the toll rates developed in Step 2. This final model execution is known as the ‘Conformity’ run

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

tpb forecasts must be executed in sequence
TPB Forecasts Must Be Executed in Sequence
  • Model years available: 2000, 2002, 2005, 2008-2010, 2020, 2030
  • ‘Early’ years (2000 – 2009) are not dependent upon prior runs
  • ‘Out’ years 2010-2030 are dependent on prior runs; recommended sequence:
    • 2010 Base
    • 2010 Conformity
    • 2020 Base
    • 2020 Conformity
    • 2030 Base
    • 2030 Conformity

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

version 2 2 model execution
Version 2.2 Model Execution
  • Applied in a ‘command prompt’ window
  • Structured application
    • Standardized subdirectory system
    • Pre-established batch files
    • Generically named inputs and outputs that are established in specific subdirectories

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

why use specific subdirectories generic names and batch files
Why use specific subdirectories, generic names, and batch files?
  • It minimizes model preparation time
  • Generically named inputs and outputs facilitates the ability to prepare comparative summaries between alternatives
  • It enables the analyst to focus on what’s important:
    • the accuracy of inputs
    • the analysis of outputs

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

version 2 2 subdirectories
Version 2.2 Subdirectories

\Version2.2_Xmittal\

(batch files)

\SOFTWARE

\CONTROLS

\SCRIPTS

\SUPPORT

\2000_ModDev

\Inputs

\2002_Conf

\Inputs

\2005ModDev

\Inputs

.

.

.

\2030_Conf

\Inputs

 ‘Root’ Subdirectory / name arbitrary, typically project related

  • ‘Boilerplate’ subdirectories for model application

Subdir. names must be as shown

 ‘Model ‘output’ subdirectories / name is arbitrary

 ‘output’ subdirs. must have a ‘child’ subdirectory named ‘Inputs’ where modeling inputs reside. Input files are named generically

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

batch file types in the root sd
Batch File Types in the Root SD

User enters this batch file name at command prompt

Pre-established file ‘called’ by primary batch file

Pre-established file ‘called’ by secondary batch file

NOTE: the _Year_ variable must be accurately defined (e.g. ‘_year = 2030’)

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

primary batch file
Primary Batch File

:: runall2000.bat, 2008-02-04

:: Source: M:\model_dev\Version2.2_Jan08_Xmittal

set root=E:\model_dev\Version2.2_Jan08_Xmittal

set scenar=2000

set runbat=runall_2000.bat

set fullpth=%root%\%scenar%

:: Std error redirected to a file; Std output split between file and screen

timethis "cmd /c %runbat% %scenar% 2> %fullpth%\%scenar%_errs.txt" | tee %fullpth%\%scenar%_output.txt

start %fullpth%\%scenar%_errs.txt

start %fullpth%\%scenar%_output.txt

:: Cleanup

set root=

set scenar=

set fullpth=

set runbat=

Root Subdirectory

Output Subdirectory

Secondary batch file

Output log and error listing files

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

example section of secondary batch file
Example Section of Secondary Batch File

:: runall_2000.bat

:: TPB Travel Model, Version 2.2

set _year_=2000

set _alt_=Version_2.2

:: Make sure appropriate MC control files exist in \controls SD

:: and copy to generic names in the output SD.

if not exist controls\mc_hbw00.ctl goto err

if not exist controls\mc_hbs00.ctl goto err

if not exist controls\mc_hbo00.ctl goto err

if not exist controls\mc_nhb00.ctl goto err

copy controls\mc_hbw00.ctl %1\mchbw.ctl /y

copy controls\mc_hbs00.ctl %1\mchbs.ctl /y

copy controls\mc_hbo00.ctl %1\mchbo.ctl /y

copy controls\mc_nhb00.ctl %1\mcnhb.ctl /y

rem ====== Pump Prime Iteration ==========================================

set _iter_=pp

set _prev_=pp

call Set_Factors.bat %1

call Set_CPI.bat %1

call PP_Highway_Build.bat %1

.

.

.

call Highway_Assignment.bat %1

call Highway_Skims.bat %1

rem ====== End of batch file =============================================

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

model step batch file example highway assignment
Model Step Batch File ExampleHighway Assignment

CD %1

REM Highway Assignment

del tppl*.*

del %_iter_%_Highway_Assignment.rpt

start /w TPPLUS.EXE ..\scripts\Highway_Assignment.s /start -Ptppl -S..\%1

if errorlevel 1 goto error

copy tppl*.prn %_iter_%_Highway_Assignment.rpt

copy %_iter_%_Highway_Assignment.rpt temp.dat

..\software\extrtab temp.dat

copy extrtab.out %_iter_%_Highway_Assignment.tab

goto end

:error

REM Processing Error....

PAUSE

:end

CD..

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

version 2 2 modeling step batch files
Version 2.2 Modeling Step Batch Files

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

sequence of version 2 2 modeling steps by iteration
Sequence of Version 2.2 Modeling Steps by Iteration

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

what files are in the inputs sd
What Files are in the Inputs SD?
  • 42 files are required consisting of:
    • Land use files
    • Exogenous trip files
    • External, through trip files
    • Highway/transit network files
    • 2 optional transit access link files may be used if desired (be careful)

Recommendation: DO NOT mix and match V2.1D inputs with V2.2

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

land use trip inputs
Land Use / Trip Inputs

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

network inputs
Network Inputs

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

iteration 6 outputs transit
Iteration 6 Outputs: Transit

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

iteration 6 outputs transit fares
Iteration 6 Outputs: Transit Fares

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

iteration 6 outputs trip gen
Iteration 6 Outputs: Trip Gen.

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

iteration 6 outputs trip dist
Iteration 6 Outputs: Trip Dist.

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

iteration 6 outputs mode choice
Iteration 6 Outputs: Mode Choice

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

iteration 6 outputs assignment highway skims
Iteration 6 Outputs: Assignment, Highway Skims

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

link variables on the final loaded link highway network i6hwy net
Link variables on the final loaded-link highway network (i6hwy.net)

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

link variables on the final loaded link highway network i6hwy net continued
Link variables on the final loaded-link highway network (i6hwy.net)- continued

<Iter> = pp, i1, i2,…..i6

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Version 2.2 model is now ‘on-line’
  • TPB is currently responding to 10 requests
  • Version 2.2 represents an improvement in the TPB’s travel forecasting practice
    • Fewer adjustment factors used
    • Freeway queuing delay is now addressed
    • More realistic external traffic assumptions used
  • Version 2.2 will continue to be monitored and refined, as is the case with any production model
  • TPB’s models development activities are continuing: Version 2.3 is in progress

3/21/08 Ver2.2 Presentation to the TFS