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Tools for Hazard Monitoring, Assessment, and Response

Landsat 8. Tools for Hazard Monitoring, Assessment, and Response . Jesslyn F. Brown, U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science, South Dakota, USA. In the face of hazards, what can people and organizations do to help our situation? Better access to information

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Tools for Hazard Monitoring, Assessment, and Response

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  1. Landsat 8 Tools for Hazard Monitoring, Assessment, and Response Jesslyn F. Brown, U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science, South Dakota, USA

  2. In the face of hazards, what can people and organizations do to help our situation? Better access to information Responsive to a changing situation Have the proper content, latency, spatial detail Plan Take actions to reduce vulnerability

  3. Specific actions to address hazard management within integrated assessment and planning An assessment of the presence and effect of natural events on the goods and services provided by natural resources Estimates of the potential impact of hazard events on development activities Include measures to reduce vulnerability in the proposed development activities Organization of American States

  4. Drought is a kind of climate hazard, and it is one that dramatically effects agriculture. Generally more costly than other hazards especially when we consider the impacts and costs at multiple scales. Multiple tools are needed to access information about hazards Where, When, How severe? Remote sensing is one tool

  5. Effect Accuracy Remote Sensing Advantages Cost-effective and rapid of acquiring up-to-date information over a large geographical area Practical way to obtain data for inaccessible places High repetition rate and continuous coverage (time and space) Standard methods and techniques Remote Sensing Limitations Indirect measure of the phenomena Atmosphere noise needs to be corrected Geometric and sensor calibration issues

  6. Satellite Systems User/Decision Support System AVHRR MODIS Data Services Georegistration Compositing Surface Reflectance Stacking Smoothing Anomaly Detection Metrics Calculation (SOS, SG, PASG) Existing Vegetation Dynamics System Data Translation Data/products to partners >> Regular and Quick EMODIS System Vegetation Dynamics and VegDRI Models 2009>

  7. Drought Impacts Annual direct losses to the U.S. due to drought are, on average, $6-8 billion (FEMA) 2012 $$150 billion Drought severity can be significantly under- or over-estimated due to inadequate drought observations. This affects Planning, Prediction, Mitigation, and Response. Impacts are evident at multiple scales (local, regional, national, global) and in multiple sectors

  8. Drought Impacts Warrick and Bowden, 1981

  9. drought drought drought Dust Bowl drought drought

  10. U.S. requirements for operational drought monitoring—geospatial products

  11. Multi-year time-series observations support National monitoring of land change Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Start of Season End of Season Length of Season Seasonal “greenness” –cumulative productivity

  12. Integrating Satellite and Climate Data Seasonal greenness condition from satellite highlights areas with anomalous vegetation condition Deficits (compared to average condition) might be caused by drought, flooding, late greennup, land cover conversion, etc. Climate information is needed to provide evidence that enables interpretation of the satellite data anomalies

  13. http://vegdri.cr.usgs.gov/

  14. Regression Tree Model (*) Vegetation Drought Response Index Methodology Brown, J.F., et al. (2008). The Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI): A new integrated approach for monitoring drought stress in vegetation. GIScience and Remote Sensing, 45, 16-46. 1. Historical Database Development Satellite Data Data Input Variables 2. Model Development 3. Map Generation • Percent Annual Seasonal Greenness (PASG) • Start of Season Anomaly (SOSA) Climate Data • Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 1-km2 VegDRI Map Biophysical Data • land use/land cover type • soil available water capacity (STATSGO) • ecoregion type • irrigation status • elevation * Models developed from a 20-year historical record (1989 – 2009) of climate and satellite observations at 3,000+ weather station locations. Biophysical variables are static over time.

  15. VegDRI Flow: Providing Near-real time Delivery of Information eMODIS Historical Input Data Target: Monday 10:30 a.m. Terra MODIS T+11hrs LAADS USGS Drought Monitoring VegDRI MODAPS EDOS T+6hrs NIDIS Drought Portal MODIS L0 Data T+3hrs eMODIS Expedited NDMC Vegetation Drought Response Index U.S. Drought Monitor MODIS L2, L1B Data LANCE

  16. 8-day Cumulative ETa Anomaly Apr 1– Sep 12, 2012 Courtesy: G. Senay

  17. 2001, 2006 National Land Cover Datasets 20 LC Classes Only 2 Agricultural Classes ~78% Overall Accuracy

  18. Information for decision-makers through combinations of Information/data

  19. Crop Type Classification of the U.S. Great Plains: An Application of Regression Tree Modeling using Remote Sensing and Environmental Data Spatial coverage: U.S. Great Plains Temporal coverage: 2000 – 2011 Spatial resolution: 250 meter Overall model classification accuracy: 87% Linear agreement with county results from the USDA NASS Survey Program: R2 = 0.76 D. Howard, B. Wylie

  20. Global Agricultural Monitoring System of Systems: GEOSS Activity Satellite observations, in-situ observations and model outputs are needed. Standardization and coordination among countries Combined information (seasonal forecast models, agro-meterological data [precip, temp, humidity], in-situ obs, satellite obs at various scales, optical, thermal, microwave… Planted area, crop condition, crop type, crop yield

  21. Summary Remotely sensed observations (spatial detail and synoptic coverage) are a critical tool for monitoring hazards Need to understand limitations and accuracy Need for continued development of tools that fit national needs, and also enhance a global system International cooperation and technical advancement is being supported through GLAM

  22. Thank You! Muchos Gracias! Questions? Preguntas?

  23. Extra slides

  24. March 2007 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey 2006 Satellite Vegetation Phenology for the Conterminous U.S. April 2, 2006 April 30, 2006 May 28, 2006 June 25, 2006 July 23, 2006 August 20, 2006 September 17, 2006 October 15, 2006 October 29, 2006

  25. Earth Observing Systems VIIRS optical band widths will be similar to MODIS

  26. Integrated Assessment and Planning Courtesy: D. Wilhite

  27. Examples of Federal Policy Decisions Allocation of Federal Emergency Relief Funds U.S. Drought Monitor used as primary tool in allocating federal emergency drought relief Bureau of Reclamation for American Indian Nations of the Southwest Use of US Drought Monitor to trigger several key drought mitigation programs (including livestock assistance under the non-Fat Dry Milk Initiative and the Conservation Reserve Program)

  28. Examples of Agribusiness Decisions Federal Drought Information in Agribusiness Used by Farmers and Ranchers in making purchasing decisions Making crop planting decisions Identifying areas of greatest demand for hay Evaluating feed supplies and potential for shortages Kansas Association of Wheat Growers and other agriculture-related groups rely on US Drought Monitor products

  29. Examples of Agribusiness Decisions Futures pricing of U.S. Commodities Kansas City and Chicago Boards of Trade use federal drought monitoring and forecast information in futures pricing for U.S. Commodities Other Futures brokering companies (e.g., Allendale Inc.) use the USDM for assessing impacts to grain futures and for providing advisories to customers

  30. Examples of Water Management Decisions Bonneville Power Administration with $3B in annual revenues depends on water supply forecasts/drought information for hydro power management decisions Critical water management decisions that affect agriculture and wildlife resources in Klamath Basin are heavily dependent on accurate and timely drought information

  31. Examples of Energy Decisions Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Use Drought Monitor information for the oversight of energy markets Hold drought workshops to improve and maintain coordination and cooperation among licensees, agencies, stakeholders, and Commission staff during developing drought

  32. State and Local Decisions State and local drought planning Requires higher spatial resolution and improved method for communicating drought classification categories Enhanced coverage of surface observing networks along with improvements in reporting frequency and timeliness will support decision-making at the county level

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