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The MINNI Project: An Integrated Assessment Modeling System For Policy Making

Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment. G. Zanini, T. Pignatelli , F. Monforti, G. Vialetto, L. Vitali ENEA, Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment. The MINNI Project: An Integrated Assessment Modeling System For Policy Making.

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The MINNI Project: An Integrated Assessment Modeling System For Policy Making

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  1. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment G. Zanini, T. Pignatelli, F. Monforti, G. Vialetto, L. Vitali ENEA, Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment The MINNI Project: An Integrated Assessment Modeling System For Policy Making G.Brusasca, G.Calori, S.Finardi, P.Radice, C.Silibello ARIANET, Milano Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  2. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Preface: The MINNI Project A 3 year project for the development of a National Integrated Modelling System for Atmospheric Pollution and its effects Carried out under the leadership of ENEA in cooperation with ARIANET and IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria) Project financed by ENEA and the Italian Ministry for the Environment (total investment 1,268 million Euros) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  3. The MINNI Project Emission Scenarios Two main components: AMS-Italy RAINS-Italy Trasfer Matrices Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  4. The MINNI Project Derived from the RAINS-Europe model developed by IIASA for the UN Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution and used by the EU Commission to develop policies on Air Pollution (CAFE) The RAINS-Italy Model Pollutants: SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, PM(10&2,5), Ozone Source Areas 20 Administrative Regions 4 Metropolitan Areas, 1 National Sea Traffic Area 14 Large Combustion Plants Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  5. The MINNI Project The RAINS-Italy Model Input Output Emission scenarios Cost Curves Deposition and Concentration maps Impact on Environment and Health Economic Activities Energy Scenario RAINS-Italy Semplified flow-chart CONTROL STRATEGY Abatement technologies Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  6. The MINNI Project The RAINS-Italy Model IAM flow-chart Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  7. The MINNI Project Example of input dataEnergy consumption in road transport The RAINS-Italy Model Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  8. The MINNI Project Example of Control Strategyfor petrol cars The RAINS-Italy Model Penetration of the control standards EURO I – EURO IV over years,for petrol cars Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  9. The MINNI Project Emission calculation in the RAINS methodology ( from official IIASA documentation ) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  10. The MINNI Project NOx Emission Scenario (kt/y), per sector, per year(NEC data 2005) Output of the RAINS-Italy Model Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  11. The MINNI Project Example of Cost Curve – NOx Cost Curve at 2010 (CAFE 2004) Output of the RAINS-Italy Model Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  12. The MINNI Project Example of Cost Curve – NOx Cost Curve at 2010 (NEC review test) Output of the RAINS-Italy Model The Cost Curve identifies the most cost-effective measures Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  13. The MINNI Project PM10 concentration map (μg/m2) (inventory data 2000) Output of the RAINS-Italy Model Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  14. The MINNI Project Nitrogen deposition map (mg/m2/y) (test data) Output of the RAINS-Italy Model Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  15. The MINNI Project Sulphur deposition maps (mg/m2/y) – Sectoral / Plant contribution (test data) Output of the RAINS-Italy Model National Sea Traffic Large refinery plant Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  16. The MINNI Project Applications in the international context Range of application of RAINS_Italy - The CAFE Program of the EU Commission - The revision of the NECD of the EU Commission (2001/81/CE) - The UN-ECE CLRTAP ( within the TFIAM ) • The UN-ECE CLRTAP ( provisions art. 8 and revision of the Gothenburg Protocol ) • The UN-ECE CLRTAP ( ICP Materials )Italian Sub-Center for Stocks at Risk (Cultural Heritage) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  17. The MINNI Project Applications at national/regional level Range of application of RAINS_Italy • The Air Quality Directive (96/62/CE) and daughter dirrectives of the EU Commission (plans & programmes referred to art. 8) • Sectoral emission analysis at regional level (relative contribution from sectors) • Sectoral emission analysis at national level (e.g. pollution from seagoing ships) • Ex-ante, Ex-post assessment of measures at national/regional level • Assessment of non-technical measures Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  18. The MINNI Project The RAINS-Italy Model as integrated assessment model is a valuable support for policy makers Conclusions: The RAINS-Italy Model has natural applications in the frame of EU policy development (TS, CAFE etc.) and UN-CLRTAP The RAINS-Italy Model offers cost benefit analysis as comparison among different reduction strategies The RAINS-Italy Model may provide estimations of the same Health/Environment Indicators used by the EU Commission (e.g. as in theTS, life expectancy reduction and premature deaths) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

  19. The MINNI Project RAINS – Europe on line at IIASA web site: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

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