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GENERATION SYSTEM MASTER PLAN FOR GHANA

GENERATION SYSTEM MASTER PLAN FOR GHANA. PRESENTATION TO KNUST ENERGY CENTER BY ING. NORBERT ANKU DIRECTOR, ENGINEERING GHANA GRID COMPANY LIMITED. 1. Presentation Outline. Loads and Load Forecast Existing Generation Committed Generation Candidate Generation

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GENERATION SYSTEM MASTER PLAN FOR GHANA

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  1. GENERATION SYSTEM MASTER PLAN FOR GHANA

    PRESENTATION TO KNUST ENERGY CENTER BY ING. NORBERT ANKU DIRECTOR, ENGINEERING GHANA GRID COMPANY LIMITED 1
  2. Presentation Outline Loads and Load Forecast Existing Generation Committed Generation Candidate Generation Generating Plant Technology and Facility Planning Criteria Results
  3. Background and Objectives Aim: Presentation of the 15-year (2012-2026) Generation System Master Plan for Ghana. Purpose: To Guide Investment Basis: Using detailed load forecast, existing and committed facilities, optimal technology options, reserve margin and required reliability criteria.
  4. LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
  5. Historical Load Demand (MW)
  6. Historical Load Demand (MW)
  7. Historical Energy Consumption (MWh)
  8. Historical Demand Analysis Growth Rate VALCO Power Curtailments Suppressed Demand – 3% Losses
  9. LOAD FORECAST(2012-2026)
  10. Load Forecast:Macroeconomic Parameters Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Population GDP per Capita
  11. Data Collection: Existing Load Forecast Demand forecast is the main driver of the Generation Plan VRA EC ECG GRIDCo The VALCO Scenario
  12. Load Forecast: Correlation Study Objective To identify a relationship between historic consumption and the macro-economic parameters. Methodology Multiple, least square linear regression to determine the linear relationship between one dependent variable (consumption) and one or more independent variables (macro-economic parameters)
  13. Load Forecast: Correlation Study (contd.) Resulting relationship for Domestic Energy Forecast (GWh) = 2.35 * (GDP+1) - 144.82 * (Population) - ad 11.45*(GDP per capita)+ 2629.13
  14. Global Forecast Based on various projected GDP and population growth rates, Three Growth Scenarios Proposed Low: 5.2% for system and 4.1% for domestic High: 8.8% for system and 8.4% for domestic Base Case: 6.7% for system and 6.3% for domestic Load Factors/Utilization Factor: Percentage of time of utilization of peak load – 70%
  15. Global Forecast (contd) System Load (MW) evolution 20122026 Base 1573 4161 Low 1457 2960 High 1692 5733
  16. Demand Forecast (MW)
  17. Demand Forecast (MW) Domestic Demand Forecast System Demand Forecast
  18. Demand Forecast (MW)-Domestic
  19. Demand Forecast (MW)-System
  20. EnergyForecast (GWh)
  21. Energy Forecast (MWh) Domestic Energy Forecast System Energy Forecast
  22. Energy Forecast (GWh): Domestic
  23. Energy Forecast (GWh): System
  24. Generation in Operation (Existing)-General (2011) Total Installed capacity: 2200 MW Dependable Capacity: 1900 MW Hydro:55% Thermal:45% All thermal plants are dual fired except Asogli
  25. Plant Characteristics-Summary
  26. Operating Data: Technical and Economic Maintenance Period Forced Outage Variable O&M Cost Fixed O&M Cost Technical Minimum Loading Gradient
  27. Hydro Generation Hydro generation – dominant: 55% of installed capacity Energy: 68% in 2010, 75% in 2009 and 53% in 2007. Firm hydro generation – 5300 GWh with 5% hydrological risk of failure. Dependable capacity for each unit at Akosombo 150 MW (wet) and 145MW (dry). For dry period value reduces to 140 MW
  28. Committed Generation Concerns units/plants expected to be commissioned in the short term with in line dates fairly well known Expected addition by 2015: 1,552MW Expected addition by 2019: 1,780MW
  29. Committed Generation Data
  30. Candidate Generation Units Potential generation plants in early development phase Enhanced by gas discoveries in Ghana
  31. Candidates Plant Data
  32. Thermal Power Plant Technology Technology – Open cycle and combined cycle Bi-fuel – natural gas and liquefied fuel(LCO or DFO) Standard Sizes: CCGT-60MW, 300MW, 450MW GT- 45MW, 100MW, 150MW
  33. West African Gas Pipeline 680 km long pipeline Connected at Takoradi and Tema VRA contracted to 120 MMSCFD Additional 120 request expected in 2019 By 2026, Ghana would have about 300 MMSCFD
  34. Local (Indigenous) Gas From Jubilee Field Expected to last 20 years 120 MMSCFD of associated gas produced and a net of 80 MMSCFD. Jubilee Phase 2 by 2016 to yield 160 MMSCFD and 400 MMSCFD by 2025
  35. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Considered as a candidate fuel in competition with LCO, DDO, Coal, NG from Nigeria. No limitation imposed on LNG supply
  36. Coal No coal powered power plant as yet Potential sizes: 125 MW and 250 MW Sizing Incident: 250 MW Coal is candidate to compete with LCO, DDO, LNG, NG No limitation of quantity.
  37. Hydro Power Next hydro Plant-Bui Installed capacity of 400 MW and average available energy of 969 GWh To be commissioned in 2013 Other Potential Hydro Sites Juale: 87 MW Pwalugu: 48 MW Hermang: 93 MW Kulpawn: 36 MW Daboya: 43 MW
  38. Biomass Power generated from municipal solid waste, animal residues, industrial residues, sewage, agricultural crops and residues. Plant sites range from 5 to 20, 40, 50 and 100 MW Key challenge is sustainability
  39. Wind Two technologies considered 2 MW units and 1 MW unit Various wind sites are currently being investigated along the coast as well as inland Wind cartography studies indicate the best site as in Techiman area (2588 GWh/y/installed MW). Coastal sites have about 200 GWh/y/installed MW
  40. Solar Two technologies Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Standard Size: 50MW. Not suitable for regions with Direct Normal Irradiation of less than 2,000 kWh/m2/yr Photovoltaic (PV) Solar Plant – Converting solar radiation into direct current using semi-conductors. Requires sunny environment
  41. Nuclear Nuclear power currently under investigation in Ghana to develop a 400 MW Plant by 2018. This vision is not feasible Period too short (10 years required) Gas availability in Ghana Incident size limitations (400-900 MW) Public concern
  42. Fuel Prices at Border of Ghana
  43. Investment Costs Combined Cycle, NG Fired Plants (300 MW) USD 320 million to USD 400 million Coal Fired Plant 125 MW: USD 314 million Coal Fired Plant 250 MW: USD 540 million Hydro Bui: 400 MW: USD 622 million Juale 87 MW: USD 309 million Pwalugu 48 MW: USD 174 million Hermang 93 MW: USD 250 million Kulpawn 36 MW: USD 292 million Daboya 43 MW: USD 202 million
  44. Investment Costs Biomass 100 MW: USD 324 million 40 MW: USD 136 million 5 MW: USD 34 million Wind 25units x 2MW: USD 69 million 50units x 1MW: USD 81 million Solar CSP 50 MW: USD 507 million PV Plant 1 MW: USD 3.7 million
  45. Planning Criteria – Reliability Criteria Reliability – ability of the system to meet the demand for power at any given time. Measured in terms of probability of failing to meet expected demand. Failure factors – random deviations of load, water shortage, forced outages of generating units, preventive maintenance, generator deratings etc.
  46. Planning Criteria – Contd. The fraction of time that the available capacity is unable to meet the demand is known as loss of load probability (LOLP). Expected quantum of energy not served as a ratio of demand = Loss of Energy Probability (LOEP)
  47. Planning Criteria – Contd. Installed Capacity Margin = (Dependable Installed Capacity – Peak Load) Peak Load
  48. ReliabilityCriteria Adopted reliability criteria drives and justifies all the investments. Impacted by two main peculiarities of the Ghana System Share of hydropower in generation mix Private backup generation LOLP is based on Cost of Unserved Energy (CUE) If CUE is high – incentive for new generation If CUE is low – system can afford lesser reliability – high LOLP
  49. Reliability Criteria - Contd No unique CUE can be determined. Methods include Production Loss Willingness To Pay (WTP) Generation Cost Based on various considerations, acceptable values for Ghana are CUE: 1000USD/MWh (100cents per unit) LOLP: 100h/year = 1.14%
  50. Spinning Reserve Primary Reserve: Component of Ghana participation in the sizing incident currently at 90 MW. Current sizing incident is 150 MW (Akosombo unit) Sizing incident will increase in the advent of larger size machines such as 450 MW combined cycle plants resulting in incident sizes of 225 MW (1 GT + ½ ST) or 250 MW Coal Plant.
  51. Spinning Reserve - Contd With the size of the interconnected system growing, the spinning reserve would be expected to be lower than the current value. A spinning reserve of 150 MW is recommended - 60% of the sizing incident of 250 MW.
  52. Supply Mix Vision Based on three issues Decrease dependency on hydro power Achieve 10% share of renewable resources in the electricity supply mix by 2020 Security of fuel supply
  53. Technical and Economic Analysis Technical and economic analysis to optimize the power system in the long term Optimized investment and operation of the entire generation and transmission system to meet the energy and power requirements over a long period. Minimize the discounted investment and operations cost taking various constraints into account such as water inflows, grid capacity, reliability, fuel prices and availability, wind generation modeling etc.
  54. Optimization Process The problem of finding optimum generation expansion plan for a given electrical system may be stated as “Find the investment decision in form of generation such that the electrical demand could be satisfied at the different nodes of a transmission network, over the entire planning period under various probabilistic conditions of equipment availability such that the total discounted cost of investment and operation decisions are minimized”.
  55. Results
  56. Results Type of generating units to be adopted, size, year, where; Yearly total investment cost Total discounted investment cost Energy produced by each unit (power plant dispatched) Cost of such generation pattern Power flows in transmission lines System marginal costs
  57. RESULTS SUMMARY – GENERATION Installed capacity evolution 2011: 1,855MW 2015: 3,090MW 2020: 4,210MW 2026: 5,470MW
  58. RESULTS SUMMARY – Reliability/Reserve Margins 2011: 6.1% 2013: 17% 2014: 32% 2016: LOLP of 100hrs reached 2016: 450MW capacity added 2016: 42% 2020: 38% 2026: 31%
  59. RESULTS SUMMARY: Combined Cycle Combined Cycle units run on Base Load. 2011: 9.7% 2015: 40.2% 2020: 48% 2026: 54%
  60. RESULTS SUMMARY : Hydro 2011: 55% 2013: 57% 2026: 30%
  61. RESULTS SUMMARY: Gas Turbines 2011: 34% 2021: 9% 2026: 10% to compensate for the impact on reliability of renewables
  62. RESULTS SUMMARY: Renewables 2015: 100MW photovoltaic and 150MW wind turbines. 2015: 5% 2019: 9.5% on commissioning of three small hydro plants 2020: Renewable Energy Bill Constraint imposed. 2020: 40MW added 2020-2026: 20MW added each year.
  63. RESULTS SUMMARY – Investments (mUSD)
  64. SensitivityAnalysis Based on: Load growth scenario Fuel prices Quantities of Natural Gas available
  65. Conclusions Optimal Development plan for power generation based on a corresponding LOLP of 100 hours per year to be achieved in 2016 Generation investment covers decided units candidate units and standard technologies from 2016 Required installed capacity are 3,550 MW in 2016; 4,200 in 2020 and 5,470 MW in 2026 corresponding to reserve margin of 42%, 38% and 31% respectively
  66. Conclusions- (Contd) Decrease in reserve margin associated in decrease in share of hydro power Natural gas quantities from Nigeria and Jubilee fields is more than adequate to meet the power generation requirements Pipeline from Domunli to Aboadze is required Load sensitivity – increase in load results in smaller margin and smaller hydro generation share
  67. Conclusions- (Contd) Fuel price sensitivity – insensitive to fuel price Gas availability sensitivity- for a 50% reduction in gas, the maximum is attained in 2023. The economically optimal solution is the commissioning of a coal fired plant in Tema
  68. REFERENCES Ghana Generation System Master Plan Study for Ghana-Tractebel2011 Ghana Transmission System Master Plan Study for Ghana-Tractebel2010 Ghana Wholesale Reliability Assessment- PSEC 2010 Ghana Generation Resource Adequacy Assessment: 2011 Loss of Load Expectation and Expected Unserved Energy Study. –PSEC 2011
  69. QUESTIONS & DISCUSSIONS
  70. THANKYOU
  71. backbone to power delivery
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