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4E1 Project Management. Planning 2 Estimating and Scheduling. Key Concepts. Estimating Scheduling Gantt charts Network notations. # Best guess Upper estimate Lower estimate 1 2 3 .. 10. Exercise. Take a blank sheet of paper

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4e1 project management

4E1 Project Management

Planning 2 Estimating and Scheduling

key concepts
Key Concepts
  • Estimating
  • Scheduling
  • Gantt charts
  • Network notations
exercise
# Best guess Upper estimate Lower estimate

1

2

3

..

10

Exercise
  • Take a blank sheet of paper
    • Divide it into five columns as follows:

There should be ten rows to write on.

test your general knowledge
Test Your General Knowledge
  • For each item, write (a) best guess and (b) upper and lower estimates that you are 90% confident of.
    • Distance in miles from Moscow to Santiago (in Chile)
    • Gold medals won by Finland in summer Olympics 1896-1992
    • Area of Greenland in square miles
    • Year the ballpoint pen was invented
    • Year the HJ Heinz company was founded
    • Population of Belize in 1990
    • Denmark’s GNP in $US in 1989
    • Year that Louis Braille was born
    • Average depth of Pacific ocean to nearest 1,000 feet
    • Length in miles of the river Danube
answers
Answers
  • Distance from Moscow to Santiago is 10,118 miles
  • Finland won 97 gold medals in summer Olympics 1896-1992
  • The area of Greenland is 839,781 square miles
  • The ballpoint pen was invented in 1938
  • The HJ Heinz company was founded in 1876
  • The population of Belize in 1990 was 187,000
  • Denmark’s GNP in $US in 1989 was $105,238 million
  • Louis Braille was born in 1809
  • The Pacific ocean is 14,000 feet deep on average
  • The river Danube is 1,770 miles long
why are estimates so often wrong
Why are Estimates So Often Wrong?
  • Internal causes
    • Psychology: over-confidence, optimism, ego
    • Misjudgement: inexperience, uniqueness of project
    • Failure to learn from previous projects
  • External pressures
    • Management pressure, sales imperative
  • Other causes
    • Games, inadequate specifications, unclear objectives
    • Rarely, bad luck
example software estimating
Example: Software Estimating
  • How many steps in this C program to convert Fahrenheit to Celsius?

#define LOWER 0

#define UPPER 300

#define STEP 20

main()

{int fahr

for (fahr=LOWER

fahr<=UPPER

fahr=fahr+STEP)

print(“%4d %6.1f\n”,fahr,

(5.0/9.0*(fahr-32))}

estimating broad strategies
Estimating – Broad Strategies
  • Bases
    • Experience, similar work in previous projects
    • Detailed breakdown/WBS
    • Heuristics e.g. function points
  • Types
    • Ballpark, comparative, feasibility, detailed
    • Top-down vs bottom-up
  • Risks
    • Theoretical versus actual resource costs
    • Cumulative effect of small errors
scheduling context
Acts of

God

External Factors

Fiscal

Policy

Corporate

Strategy

Market

Conditions

Statutory

Regulations

Working factors

Supporting

Services

Technical

capability

Communications

Planning

and

Scheduling

Attitudes

and culture

Procedures

and systems

Resources

and capacity

Management

skills

Organisation

structure

Contribution to results

Time

Profit

Quality

Scheduling: Context
the bar gantt chart
The Bar (Gantt) Chart

Henry Gantt

Task

Implicit

dependency

Design

Purchase

materials

Overlap

Set up

Lag

Manufacture

Explicit

dependency

Test

Time

exercise1
Exercise
  • Draw a Gantt chart for your “Gulliver Experience” project, showing only the top-level tasks (i.e. about 7 phases)
    • Planning
      • Project plan, agree requirements
    • Outsource project
      • Issue request for tenders, review proposals, award contract
    • Design
      • Architectural design, detailed design and blueprints, order materials
    • Move TCD administration
      • Prepare new location, move
    • Construction
      • Site preparation, building, fit-out
    • Set up business
      • Establish company, hire staff, implement systems, marketing
    • Commence business operations
  • Add estimated durations, start and end dates, dependencies and resources
network diagrams
5

2

9

1

7

3

6

8

4

Get up

Eat breakfast

Go to college

1

2

3

4

10

20

30

Network Diagrams
  • Activity on arrow
activity properties
Activity Properties
  • Description
  • Resources: human, other
  • Work/non-work
  • Duration
  • Dates: earliest start, latest finish
  • Dependencies: predecessors, successors
  • Other constraints
precedence
5

3

5

2

9

1

8

4

1

1

7

4

3

2

4

5

3

6

5

8

4

6

Precedence
  • Dummy task (dashed line) indicates order
    • Node 4 precedes node 5
    • Therefore tasks 5 and 8 cannot start until task 3 is complete
types of network diagram
Types of Network Diagram

Two basic types:

  • Activity on arrow (most intuitive)
    • Arrow diagrams (ADM)
    • Critical Path Method (CPM)
    • Critical Path Analysis (CPA)
    • Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
  • Activity on node (suits computers)
    • Precedence diagrams (PDM)
    • Rare but still used
      • Method of potentials (MPM)
      • Activities on circular nodes
precedence diagrams
Go to college

30

Get up

10

Eat breakfast

20

Precedence Diagrams
precedence diagrams dummy tasks
Precedence Diagrams - Dummy Tasks
  • Not customary but can be useful
exercise2
Activity AF

Activity FV

V

A

F

Activity BE

Activity FW

W

B

Activity CE

Activity FX

X

E

C

Activity GY

Activity DE

Y

G

D

Activity GZ

Z

Exercise
  • Redraw this arrow diagram as a PDM (a) with dummy tasks and (b) without dummy tasks
solution with dummy tasks
Dummy 1

AF

FV

BE

FW

Dummy 2

CE

FX

DE

GY

GZ

Solution (with dummy tasks)
network notations example 1
Activity

Code

Activity

Description

Duration

Elapsed time

Earliest

Start Date

Latest

Start Date

Earliest

Completion

Date

Latest

Completion

Date

Resources

Assigned

Network Notations - Example 1

Networks use standard notation as follows:

Screed Floor

B1.3

D =26 Bus = 35

ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10

EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11

Res = FEB, JH

network notations example 2
Earliest finish

time

Latest

event time

Earliest start

time

Duration

Activity

identifier

5

10

15

25

Activity identifier and description

Resources required.

10

17

8

3

18

Earliest

event time

Latest start

time

Total float

Latest finish

time

Network Notations - Example 2
network notations example 3
Network Notations - Example 3

Duration

Earliest Start Time

Earliest Finish Time

Task Description

14/11/06 5 15/12/06

4.2.3 Specify Hardware

3/12/06 17 18/1/05

JO’D €2,500 0%

Task ID

Latest

Finish

Time

Latest

Start

Time

Budget

Resources/

Responsibility

%Complete

Total

Float

gantt vs network
Gantt vs Network
  • Both used widely
  • Gantt
    • Simpler, easier to grasp
    • Limited in ability to show dependencies
    • Easily cluttered
  • Networks
    • More meaningful, more information
    • Harder to read
    • Often large and complex
summary key points
Summary: Key Points
  • Estimating
    • Part science, part art
    • Tools help but judgment is required
  • Gantt charts
    • Most basic tool; intuitive but limited
  • Network (arrow/precedence) diagrams
    • More powerful, less intuitive
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