Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones

1. Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Topic 5 Disaster Mitigation, Warning Systems and Societal Impact Topic Chair : M C Wong Rapporteurs: Topic 5.1 – W J Lee Topic 5.2 – Roger A Pielke, Jr Topic 5.3 – Linda Anderson-Berry

2. Focus of Topic 5: Application of tropical cyclone forecasting and warnings in disaster risk management, including : Evaluation of the effectiveness of warning systems Factors contributing to human and economic losses , & Mitigation strategies and community capacity building for disaster reduction Recommendations

3. I. Effectiveness of Warning Systems Reliable forecasting of tropical cyclones Efficient conveyance of warning information

4. Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones Tools Satellite data, Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) guidance, Model consensus track forecasts, Nowcasting tools, etc. Performance Improved track forecasting up to 72 hours Less reliable for weak or compact cyclones; cyclones with unusual track behaviour or undergoing extratropical transition; multi-cyclone situation Intensity forecast (including wind / rainfall distribution) remains a challenge Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) gearing towards the prediction of extreme weather events International and cross-discipline cooperation Sharing of information/experience via diff platforms Encourage interaction / communications between meteorologists, hydrologists and DPP experts

5. Conveyance of Warning Information Getting the message through the last mile/km Multiple and diverse dissemination channels with high and low technology varieties and different forms of presentation of TC messages according to the level of intended audience and strength of dissemination channels Digital Multimedia Broadcasting, Internet portal sites, mobile phones, satellite broadcasting, radio, TV Social scientists to help translate probabilistic prediction into a more visual format for different stakeholders Outreach programmes and secondary education to promote public awareness of the threat of TCs battle the human nature of “It won’t happen here” Cooperation amongst NMHSs, emergency managers, media, and stakeholders down to the community level

6. II. Factors Contributing to Human and Economic Losses Indexation (normalization) methodology incorporating factors to account for changes in population, inflation and wealth How past events would affect the present society Cyclone impact studies in India, US, the Caribbean, and Latin America No consistent trend in the normalized damage values Societal factors largely contributing to increased losses Cost-benefit analyses of disaster mitigation policy alternatives and practices A more comprehensive understanding of the value of disaster mitigation Open-source databaseon the broad human and economic impacts of disasters A centralized, comprehensive, peer-reviewed reference

7. II. Factors Contributing to Human and Economic Losses (cont.) • Policy options for disaster mitigation; securitization of risk through catastrophe bonds and derivatives, provision of micro-finance in developing countries • A tool for disaster recovery in ways to reduce long-term vulnerabilities • Effect of increase in sea surface temperature on TC damage and losses (due to anthropogenic climate change) • Still inconclusive, but the possibility cannot not be rule out

8. Predict / monitor TC development/progress using best science available Produce / deliver timely and accurate warnings in well understood formats via different channels A receptive, prepared and resourceful community III. Mitigation Strategies and Community Capacity Building for Disaster Reduction A Total Warning System–a complete end-to-end warning process

9. III. Mitigation Strategies and Community Capacity Building for Disaster Reduction (cont.) • Identifying, understanding and reducing community vulnerabilities was seen to be important • Disaster mitigation gradually shifted to the development of social policies and engineering of defences • Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 - 2015 - Building the Resilience of Nations and Committees to Disasters and the Platform for the Promotion of Early Warnings (PPEW) - a global blueprint for disaster risk reduction efforts during the next decade

10. III. Mitigation Strategies and Community Capacity Building for Disaster Reduction (cont.) • “Community capacity” is increasingly being recognized as a reliable indicator of how human populations are likely to respond to and recover from disasters • A ‘bottom-up’ approach to strengthen and build resilient communities – case examples from Australia, Hong Kong, Fiji • Cooperatively and collectively evaluate the effectiveness of TC warning systems - achieved through International and multi-disciplinary post-impact case studies

11. Recommendations: The need to enhance skills in TC intensity forecasting (wind and rainfall distribution) More research and development work on the applications of EPS, particularly for probabilistic assessment of extreme events Establishment of international “reference database” on the economic and non-economic losses due to TC and related disasters Promulgation of “early warnings” as an “end-to-end” process with enhanced community involvement Adoption the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in mitigation strategies formulation Facilitation interaction and communications amongst meteorologists, hydrologists, social scientists and DPP experts. Also, coordinate multi-disciplinary studies on social impacts of TC

12. THANK YOU