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Dr. Martin Sherman` . Cape Town, August 2006. Traditional Phenomenon Terror National Secular Motivations Aspire to Political Self Determination Often Marxist/Socialist Orientation, Rhetoric & Symbolism. Phenomenon of Modern Terror Global Religious Motivations

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slide1

Dr. Martin Sherman`

Cape Town, August 2006

slide2

Traditional Phenomenon Terror

  • National
  • Secular Motivations
  • Aspire to Political Self Determination
  • Often Marxist/Socialist Orientation,Rhetoric & Symbolism
  • Phenomenon of Modern Terror
  • Global
  • Religious Motivations
  • Aspire to Global Domination
  • Usually Theological Orientation, Rhetoric & Symbolism

Characteristics of Terror: Traditional vs. Modern

The 70s Constituted a Watershed in the Nature of Terrorism

usual recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of war on terror
Usual Recommendations for Increasing the Effectiveness of War on Terror

Call for Paradigm Shift in Approach

But Usually Suggest

►Organizational Changes

►Technological Advances

usual recommendation for increasing the effectiveness of war on terror

► Enhancement of intell-collection capabilities – space, UAV. All weather conditions; day and night; underground installations

► Enhancement of sensors and detectors

- Face recognition

- Explosive detection devices (sniffers)

► Internet Surveillance

- Content Analysis

- Data Mining

- Enhanced Search Engine – Tracing of Financial Transfers

Usual Recommendation for Increasing the Effectiveness of War on Terror

►Technological Advances

slide5

Usual Recommendation for Increasing the Effectiveness of War on Terror

►Organizational Changes

►International Inter-Service Intelligence Sharing

►International Inter-Service Operational Cooperation

►Establishment of International Anti-Terror Organization

slide6

Usual Recommendation for Increasing the Effectiveness of War on Terror

Widening Recruitment of Field Operatives

Enhancing Language Skills Intelligence Analysts

Follow the Money Trial – Drugs Crime Terror

slide7

What Would be Considered a Paradigm Change in the War on Terror?

Terror Cannot Exist without State Support

What Regimes Afford Support

and Sanctuary for Terror?

slide8

Does Regime Type Matter?

Source: http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/ponsacs/seminars/Synopses/s92rumme.htm

slide9

- Air Power

- Special Forces

- Large-Scale, Long Term Ground Deployment

- Complex Domestic Issues - Politics, Religion,Culture

The Question of Regime Change

The Lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan

►Deposing Autocrats

►Installing Democrats

slide10

The Question of Regime Change

The Lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan

WWII Regime Changes: False Analogies

- Germany

- Japan

slide11

Friday June 9th 2006

Arab development

Self-doomed to failure

slide12

Friday June 9th 2006

The barrier to better Arab performance is not a lack of resources, concludes the report, but the lamentable shortage of three essentials:

► freedom

►knowledge

►womanpower

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Friday June 9th 2006

The one thing that every outsider knows about the Arab world is that it does not treat its women as full citizens. The report sees this as an awful waste: how can a society prosper when it stifles half its productive potential? After all, even though women's literacy rates have trebled in the past 30 years, one in every two Arab women still can neither read nor write.

Their participation in their countries' political and economic life is the lowest in the world…Governments and societies (and sometimes, as in Kuwait, societies and parliamentarians are more backward than their governments) vary in the degrees of bad treatment they mete out to women. But in nearly all Arab countries, women suffer from unequal citizenship and legal entitlements.

The UNDP has a “gender-empowerment measure” which shows the Arabs near the bottom But the UN was able to measure only 14 of the 22 Arab states, since the necessary data were not available in the others. This, as the report says, speaks for itself, reflecting the general lack of concern in the region for women's desire to be allowed to get on.

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The Advancement of Women as a Strategic Libertarian Initiative against Regimes Supportive of Terror

Weaponizing Women

slide16

The Advancement of Women as a Strategic Libertarian Initiative against Regimes Supportive of Terror

Lines of Cleavage in Islamic Society

Gender Apartheid – Soft Under-Belly of Islamist Society

Use criteria of Political Correctness against Those who Hide behind them

slide17

The Advancement of Women as a Strategic Libertarian Initiative against Regimes Supportive of Terror

Effective

Defensible

Sustainable

slide18

Promoting The Status of Women as a Strategy for Regime Change

It would be difficult to imagine any other measure which would cut the ground from under the pillars of radicalMuslim society more effectivelythan a dramatic upgrading of the status of women in Islamic countries.

Effective

Experience shows that advancement of women produces effects that run strongly counter to the factors which nourish fundamentalist extremism

Higher Levels

of

Education

Increased Income

Per Capita

Reduced Size

of

Families

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Promoting The Status of Women as a Strategy for Regime Change

An Islamic world, in which the status of women approached that of women in the West, would constitute an entirely different and probably less implacably hostile adversary than it does at present.

Western nations have definite interest in undertaking a vigorous long-term campaign, designed to foment demands for women's emancipation in Muslim societies, to exert pressure for upgrading their status and for acquiring civil rights currently denied them.

This will entail a huge effort in terms of funding, planning and execution of PR initiatives, propaganda offensives and psychological warfare stratagems.

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Promoting The Status of Women as a Strategy for Regime Change

This would involve measures such as:

Massive financing of movements advocating women's rights in Muslim countries (perhaps even arming them to fend off attacks, which may not be long in coming);

Continuously pounding public opinion within the Islamic world with themes stressing the need for, and the merits of, upgrading the status of Muslim women by means of media channels similar to those directed at the Soviet bloc during the Cold War; Radio Free Lady c.f. Radio Free Europe

Imposing punitive measures against countries which flagrantly violate women's rights -- such as curtailing diplomatic privileges of the representatives of such nations.

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Promoting The Status of Women as a Strategy for Regime Change

The Moslem World must be forced to acknowledge that lack of economic progress is inevitable if half the population is kept in state of unproductive suppression

Defensible

Difficult to conceive of any other “offensive strategy” which, on the one hand, would more effectively erode the foundations of fundamentalist fanaticism and induce a positive, moderating transformation in Islamic society; and which, on the other hand, conforms entirely to the moral tenets of liberal democracy.

Sustainable

This allows democratic governments to mount and maintain a sustained campaign over time..

Dialectic of Government Support of NGO Activity and of NGO Activity Spurring Government Action

slide22

Promoting The Status of Women as a Strategy for Regime Change

Summary

Strategic Initiative with Little Downside

►At Best – Positively Transform Regressive Terror Supportive Societies

►At Worst – Throw into then in to Disarray and Turmoil

It would seem, therefore, that just as in many other walks of life, the solution to the conflict with radical Islam may also be found in the well-known dictum:

Cherchez la femme.

slide25

Need for Paradigm Change:

“Changing Rules of the Game”

Indeed, as Kissinger himself explains, [such a measure] goes against the principle enshrined at the Treaty of Westphalia: the inviolability of states. Nonetheless, in the case of Iraq, Kissinger endorses … altering this 350-year-old convention…

Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post Sunday, August 18, 2002

Diagnosis and Articulation of Self Destructive (or at least Self –Obstructive) Contradiction Inherent in Modern Day Liberalism

Modern Liberalism demands that we recognize and acknowledge human diversity. But once that diversity and pluralism has been acknowledged, Modern Liberalism goes on to demand that all these diverse elements be afforded equal treatment. In other words it repudiates diversity and pluralism in dealing with the very diversity and pluralism which demands be recognized and acknowledged. This demand for homogenous attitudes to heterogeneous adversaries is inherently contradictory – and dangerously misguided

  • Changing of Rules -I
  • Reject Homogeneous Policy/Treatment for Heterogeneous Adversaries
  • Changing of Rules - II
  • Rejection of Westphalian Sanctity of Sovereignty
  • Rejection of Westphalian Sanctity of Sovereignty
  • Transformation of Regimes
  • Divergent Policies towards Different Regime Leadership
  • Divergent Policies towards Different Regime Leadership
  • Targeting of Foreign Leaders Supporting Terror
  • Transformation of Regimes
  • Aggressive Promotion of Women’s Rights to Transform Islamic Society
  • Radio Free Lady c.f. Radio Free Europe