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Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Deutscher Bundestag Berlin - 5th October 2007. Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Success stories of RES-E development:

PV Solar Electricity

7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting

Deutscher Bundestag

Berlin - 5th October 2007

Dr. Winfried Hoffmann

Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials

President of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association

(BSW Solar) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH

Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG • Siemensstr. 100 • 63755 Alzenau

Phone: +49 6023 92 6679 • Fax: +49 6023 92 6560

email: [email protected] • www.appliedmaterials.com

applied materials overview
Power$/W

Area$/m²

SunFabTM

Applied Materials Overview

Vision:We apply nanomanufacturing technology™ to improve the way people live

“Solar Business

Group” within

“Energy and

Environmental

Solutions”

slide3
Historical Market Development by Regions

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting

slide4
2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)

Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 €ct per kWh

1991: Electricity Feed-In Act

Right of (1) of grid access(2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 €ctper kWh)

1991 - 1995:

1,000 RoofsProgram

1999 - 2003: 100,000 Roofs Progr.

Low-interest loansfor 300 MWp

2004: Amendment to EEG

Feed-in tariff of 45.7 - 62.4 €ct per kWh

Development of the German PV market

ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)

renewable energies are requested
Solar energy

Wind

Hydro

Geothermal

Bio energy

Renewable Energies are requested

“These energy sources should secure our energy needs in the future”

The vast majority of the population in Germany bets on Renewable Energies for their future energy needs.

ref: forsa, Germany 2005

industry is following the market
Image: Q-Cells

Image: Aleo

Industry is following the market
  • More than €15 billion were invested in PV systems in Germany since 2000
  • About €1 billion will be invested in manufacturing plants in 2007
    • About 50 companies produce silicon, wafers, cells, modules and inverters
    • Modern and automated production lines
    • Improved efficiency, improved products
  • About €100 million will be invested in Research & Development in 2007
    • Strong technological development and increased R&D activities
    • R&D is done by industry and institutes

ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)

european market support programs
European Market Support Programs

Country

Feed-in law

2005

2006 (est.)

yearly market [MW]

Tariff

[€ct/kWh]

Duration

[a]

Cap

[MW]

Germany

38 – 49

BIPV + 5ct

20

-

750

750

Italy

36 – 49

20

1,200

5

12

Portugal

31 – 45

150

1

1

Spain

22 – 41

25

400

20

63

France

30 - 40

BIPV + 15- 25

20

-

5

12

Greece

40 – 50

20

1

1

other countries

Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005)

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA)

customer needs
on-grid

off-grid

consumer

high efficiency

²

€/kWh

€/hr light

g/W

W/m

Source: Fraunhofer ISE

€/m² / aesthetics

€/W

flexibility

W/mm²

Customer Needs
world pv application segmentation
World PV Application Segmentation

2000

40 %/yr overall

1800

1600

1400

63%/yr

1200

1000

Market Size in MW

800

600

400

18%/yr

200

0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Off-Grid & Consumer

on-Grid

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting

slide10
Photovoltaics

Retail prices private

and small business

Large power consuming

industries

market support programs necessary:

ref: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH, Germany

Competitiveness between Electricity

Generating Cost for PV and Utility Prices

seasonal electricity prices
Seasonal Electricity Prices

Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation

(Jp) Tariff 2005

Range of Electricity Prices

in California

ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW

experience curve for pv solar modules
History

10,0

1,0

$/W module price

experience factor

15%

18%

340 GW/yr

1.8 GW/yr

6 GW/yr

70 GW/yr

2030 F

2005

2010 F

2020 F

0,1

1

10

100

1.000

10.000

GW accumulated

Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules

Forecast

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

cost learning curve examples
‘65

‘70

‘75

‘80

‘85

‘90

‘95

‘00

VLSI/DRAM

100

FPD Cost (PECVD)

10,000

10

1

~28% reduction for doubling of total volume

Analog Handset Price

Market Price/unit (1996 $)

10-1

DRAM Cents/bit

10-2

1,000

10-3

10-4

Cumulative Bits

10-5

100

105

107

109

1011

1013

1015

1017

1019

0.1

1

10

100

Cumulative Units Sold (Millions)

Cost/Learning Curve Examples
slide15
Future Growth of the Global PV SolarElectricity Market in GWp and bn€ turnover

F

F

F

F

F

F

F

ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates

slide16
= own estimates

ref: EURELECTRIC and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

summary the future of pv solar electricity i
Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (I)
  • Success story for PV solar electricity industry due to market support programs (40 % annual growth in the last decade) specific
  • Industry investment for PV solar electricity high-tech production needs

Stable market conditions

  • Not short also not long term, but until grid parity is reached (+ 5 … 15 years)
  • Allow differentiated feed-in tariff programs in EK 27 – do not force non-differentiating quota systems / trading of green certificates in short term
  • No stop and go budget

(happening when coming from finance minister, instead feed in tariff budgets allocated to electricity users)

  • In compliance with population (more than 80% of people like to support financially in particular PV systems, e.g. modest increase to electricity bill in feed in tariffs)
  • Easy grid access without bureaucratic hurdles (no approval procedures for decentralized PV systems)
summary the future of pv solar electricity ii
Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (II)

If support programs are done now globally, we will have

  • Short term (2015 …)
    • Reach grid parity in liberalized utility markets
    • Market volume above 30 bn €
  • Medium term (2030 …)
    • Reach generation cost equal to clean coal electricity production
    • Market volume towards 200 bn €
    • Be the most suited energy delivery together with micro-credit financing to the billions of people in the developing world
  • Long term (2050 …)
    • Together with solar thermal electricity power stations be the lowest cost electricity producing technology (also less than nuclear)
    • Contribute aggressively to the global electricity needs (more than30 %)
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