East-West trajectory dilemma in Ukraine’s post-communist transformation

1. East-West trajectory dilemma in Ukraine’s post-communist transformation Petro Kuzyk 18 February 2015 GSG Annual Conference

2. Initial suggestions: • A new East-West divide has taken root in post-communist Eastern Europe • Ukraine’s foreign course dilemma is about a choice of trajectory for its development • Successful post-communist transitions in the East-European region are imitations of Western institutions

3. Two models of post-communist transformation • Different outcomes of transformation evident by the end of the 1990s: the post-communist Eastern Europe divided in two parts • Successful CEE countries followed the Western-bound model (swift transition to liberal democracyand market economy): “Return to Europe” • The Post-Soviet model: half-hearted reforms (democracy “with adjectives”, state-regulated and oligarchic economy). Conserving some structures from the past

4. A country at the cross-roads • Both alternative transformation models available to Ukraine • Ukrainian foreign trajectory problem: “multi-vectorism” (the “East-and-West” integration policy) • Most governments attempted to imitate the West structures and follow the Post-Soviet developmental patterns simultaneously East or West?

5. The roots of the problem • The puzzle of Ukraine political and societal divide: ethnic, linguistic, religious, regional? • An “East-West” divide: rather pro-EuropeanWestern and Central parts vs. pro-Russian/Eurasian or mixed East and South. • Deep societal structures of the divide: political subcultures. National-Democratic vs. Post-Soviet

6. 1991, 1994, 2004 presidential elections and 2006 parliamentary elections:electoral winners(Source: Kolodii A. Ukraїns’kyi rehionalizm iak stan kul’turno-politychnoї poliaryzovanosti. In Ahora. Ukraїna – rehional’nyi vymir.- No.3, 2006.- P.88)

7. Regional winners of 2010 presidential election (2nd round, left) and 2012 parliamentary election (multi-mandate party constituency, right)(Source: www.electoralgeography.com)

8. 2014 presidential election (1st and 2nd places by constituencies, above) and parliamentary election (multi-mandate constituency leaders and Opposition Bloc returns by regions, bellow)(Source: www.electoralgeography.com)

9. Two political cultures

10. Consequences • “Multi-vectorism” responsible for ineffective transformation: no stable political system or strong economy • Reiteration of the Western and Eastern integration alternatives reinforces the domestic cleavages (and vice-verse) • Foreign trajectory ambiguity is a source of Ukraine’s foreign security threats (Russia’s land-grab and triggering of war in the East)

11. A way out? - breaking free from the vicious circle (foreign trajectory ambiguity and societal cleavages): • Stop the conflict in Donbas • Swift democratic/ Western-bound reforms • Integration into the European and North-Atlantic structures

12. comments, questions? thank you!

13. “Should Ukraine join the following international organizations?” European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (Source: Ilko Kucheriv DI Foundation http://www.dif.org.ua/ua/polls/2014_polls/mlvbkrfgbkprhkprtkp.htm)