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This report discusses the recent evolution, current status, and prediction update of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It provides information on rainfall patterns, monsoon prediction, climatology, and atmospheric circulation.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 10, 2013 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall has been slightly above normal over northeastern India, Bangladesh, southeastern China, parts of Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over northern Australia. However, rainfall is at below normal levels over Japan, and southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern is showing above normal features over northeastern India, Bangladesh and sporadically over eastern China and deficit characteristics over southern Japan, and over many southeast Asian countries.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days During this past week, the SW monsoon over India, that was declared onset along the Kerala coast on June 1st by the India Met. Dept, has spread rather quickly northwards and is now well established over central India, beyond Mumbai, all the way up to Gujarat.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall has been slightly above normal over northeastern India, Bangladesh, southeastern China, parts of Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over northern Australia. However, rainfall is at below normal levels over Japan, and southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern is showing above normal features over northeastern India, Bangladesh and sporadically over eastern China and deficit characteristics over southern Japan, and over many southeast Asian countries. During this past week, the SW monsoon over India, that was declared onset along the Kerala coast on June 1st by the India Met. Dept, has spread rather quickly northwards and is now well established over central India, beyond Mumbai, all the way up to Gujarat. In the upcoming two weeks, according to the NCEP GFS model, the SW monsoon will further spread and gradually move beyond central India northwards toward northern India. However, the model is predicting below normal rainfall across the large swath of southern and eastern China as well as over parts of southeast Asia including Indonesia.
