A Framework for Monitoring Economic Development: Data for understanding structural change

1. A Framework for Monitoring Economic Development:Data for understanding structural change Eric Swanson, Senior Adviser Development Data Group The World Bank International Forum on Monitoring National Development: Issues and Challenges 27-29 September 2011, Beijing, China

2. Plan for the presentation • Data from international data sets – availability and gaps: • Gross Domestic Product • Valued added by industry • Labor force and employment • Productivity • Trade • Infrastructure • How do these data help to identify structural differences and changes over time? • Questions for discussion?

3. Data availability • Two years ago we conducted an inventory of data available for classic structural analysis of economic development based on Chenery and Syrquin’s “Patterns of Development” (1975) and other subsequent studies • Results of the data inventory indicated that even in the most recent decade, annual data for all indicators are available for no more than 75% of the country-year periods.

4. Data availability -- results • Macroeconomic indicators in WDI database • Two-digit SITC indicators from COMTRADE

5. The “Beijing Sample” • For this presentation we looked at data available for the 25 low- and middle-income economies participating in this conference.

6. GDP – Income accounts

7. Changing economic structures

8. GDP – Production accounts

9. Sectoral change: Ethiopia Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources

10. Sectoral change: China Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources

11. Sectoral change: Mexico Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources

12. Labor force statistics

13. Labor statistics: data availability

14. Sectoral distribution of employment

15. Global trade statistics

16. Trade in commodities

17. Infrastructure statistics

18. Inventory of infrastructure sources • Road transport • Principal international data source: International Road Federation‘s World Road Statistics • Alternative sources : National and/or regional road associations • Coverage (time, countries, road class, length) 1990 onward; 188 countries; total road network, paved road (% ) and passengers carried, and goods hauled. • Air transport • Principal international data source: International Civil Aviation Organization’s Civil Aviation Statistics • Coverage (time, countries, domestic and international traffic) 1970 onward; 148 economies; registered carrier departures, Passengers carried, and Air freight • Sea transport • Principal international data source: Containerisation International’s Containerisation International Yearbook • Coverage (time, countries, volume of shipments) 2000 onward; 60 economies; Port container traffic • Railways • Principal international data source: International Union of Railways’ Railisa database • Coverage (time, countries, length of track, volumes) 1980 onward, 154 countries, Rail lines, Passengers carried, and Goods hauled

19. Infrastructure inventory, continued • Electricity production and use • Principal international data source: IEA Energy Statistics and Balances • Alternative sources : United Nation’s Statistics Division’s Energy Statistics Yearbook • Coverage (time, countries, production, distribution, access) 1960 onward; 135 countries; production, consumption, transmission and distribution losses % of output, and sources of electricity • Information and telecommunications • Principal international data source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database • Coverage (time, countries, bandwidth, internet access, mainline telephones, mobile phones) 1960 onward, 212 countries; fixed lines, mobile cellular subscriptions, International voice traffic, population covered by mobile cellular network, residential fixed-line tariff, mobile cellular prepaid tariff, fixed broadband Internet subscribers, and International Internet bandwidth etc. • Water • Principal international data source: Joint Monitoring Programme of t WHO, UNICEF, FAO and AQUASTAT • Coverage (time, countries, freshwater resources, consumption by industry/household access) 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008. 157-197 countries, Access to an improved water source % of population • Sanitation • Principal international data source: Joint Monitoring Programme of WHO and UNICEF • Coverage (time, countries, treatment levels, household access) 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008. 149-194 countries. Access to improved sanitation facilities % of population

20. The Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF) • The GIFF suggests looking at economies with GDP per capita 100 to 300 percent higher – a gap that could be bridged by rapid growth over 20 years. • Among comparator economies look for dynamic export industries in which the rising economy may be able to establish a comparative advantage • GIFF is not intended to be applied in a mechanistic manner – considerable judgment and highly disaggregated data are required.

21. Growth identification 2009 Source: World Development Indicators database

22. What trade data show us

23. Additional data required • Capital and labor intensity of production processes • Raw material sources and prices (domestic and imported) • Domestic and foreign demand • Input-output structure • Characteristics of existing firms • All of these data at the finest subdivisions available, including sub-national units

24. Questions for discussion • How do the demands of the new structural economics change the priorities and development plans for economic statistics? • What new tools and methodologies are needed to improve the supply and availability of economic statistics? • How can we carry forward the ideas from this conference? Through an expert group? Pilot country studies? Other mechanisms?