ESPON SEMINAR Evora, 12-13 november, 2007

1. ESPON SEMINAREvora, 12-13 november, 2007 Progress on an ex-ante assessment tool for territorial impact of EU policies: The TEQUILA model and beyond Roberto Camagni – Politecnico di Milano

2. Content • The TIA / Territorial Cohesion link • An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion • Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria • The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model • The Territorial Assessment Model: TIM • TEQUILA SIP: Interactive Simulation Package • Application to TENs policies • The interactive package • Mapping the results 10. The way forward

3. 1. The TIA / Territorial Cohesion link ESDP made a plea for an integrated TIA methodology A TIA methodology has necessarily to start by linking up with a sound theoretical and operational definition of Territorial Cohesion “Territorial cohesion translates the goal of sustainable and balanced development assigned to the Union into territorial terms” (Rotterdam Declaration, Dutch Presidency, 2004) For us: Territorial cohesion may be seen as the territorial dimension of sustainability (beyond the technological, the behavioural and the diplomatic dimensions of sustainability) (Camagni, 2004)

4. 2. An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion The 3 main components of territorial cohesion: * Territorial Efficiency: resource-efficiency with respect to energy, land and natural resources; competitiveness and attractiveness of the local territory; internal and external accessibility * Territorial Quality: the quality of the living and working environment; comparable living standards across territories; similar access to services of general interest and to knowledge * Territorial Identity: presence of “social capital”; landscape and cultural heritage; capability of developing shared visions of the future; creativity;productive “vocations” and competitive advantage of each territory

5. 2. An operational definition of Territorial Cohesion

6. 3. Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria • Territorial efficiency: • Lisbon: • Economic efficiency and production capability • Competitiveness and innovation capability • Inter-regional integration • Gothenborg + Kyoto: • Resource efficiency: consumption of energy, land, water…. • Reduction of technological and environmental risk • Compact city form, reduction of sprawl • Spatial structure: • - Polycentric urban system • Development of city-networks and medium cities • General accessibility - internal and external • - Quality of transport and communication services

7. 3. Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria Territorial quality: People and cohesion: • Access to services of general interest • Quality of life and working conditions • Multiethnic solidarity and integration • Reduction of interregional income disparities • Reduction of unemployment, poverty and exclusion Natural resources - Conservation and creative management of natural resources • Sustainable transport: public transport and absence of congestion Spatial structure: • Cooperation between city and coutryside

8. 3. Territorial dimensions and assessment criteria Territorial identity: Heritage and landscape • Conservation and creative management of cultural heritage • Conservation and creative management of landscape Production “vocations” • Cognitive capability: creativity and innovativeness • Development of region-specific know-how and knowledge • Accessibility to global knowledge and creative “blending” with local knowledge Capabilities • Development of shared “visions” for the future Social capital • Cooperation capability; social networks; • Shared behavioural rules

9. 4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model T erritorial E fficiency QU ality I dentity the TEQUILA Model L ayered A ssessment Model (Camagni, 2006) • TEQUILA is a Multicriteria Model for the Territorial Impact Assessment of EU policies 2. The 3 components of the T.C. concept and their sub-components become the criteria in the Assessment Model

10. 4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model 3. The weights of the 3 criteria and sub-criteria are flexible (sensitivity of results with respect to change in weights is tested interactively) 4. The general impact of EU policies on each criterion is defined using ad hoc studies, with both qualitative and quantitative approaches 5. A method for combining quali-quantitative impact indicators inside the multi-criteria analysis is supplied

11. Alternative scaling of quantitative assessments (e.g.) a) “local scaling” b) “ad hoc scaling” +5 0 +3 +2 180 250 180 250 Impact on regional employment Impact on regional employment 4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model Qualitative impact scores are attributed on a +5 to -5 scale: 5= very high advantage for all; -5= very high disadvantage for all 4= high advantage for all; -4= high disadvantage for all 3= high advantage for some, med. adv. for all; -3= high disadv. for some, medium disadv. for all 2= medium advantage; -2= medium disadvantage 1= low advantage; -1= low disadvantage 0= nil impact;

12. 4. The Territorial Assessment Model: the TEQUILA Model The 2 layers 1st layer:General Assessment of the impact of EU policies on the overall European territory: to be intended as a “potential impact” on an abstract territory (PIM) 2nd layer:“Territorial Assessment” on each region: why? • the intensity of the policy application may be different on different regions • the relevance of the different “criteria” is likely to be different for different regions, according to their utility function • the vulnerability and the receptivity of the different regions to similar “potential” impacts is likely to be different • a region may not be subject to a specific policy

13. 5. The Territorial Assessment Model: TIM TIMr = Σc θc . (PIMr,c . Sr,c ) TIM = territorial impact c = criterion of the multi-criteria method r = region θc = weight of the c criterion PIMr,c = potential impact according to quantitative assessm. Sr,c = sensitivity of region r to criterion c Sr,c = Dr,c . Vr,c Dr,c = desirability of criterion c for region r (territorial “utility function”) Vr,c = vulnerability of region c to impact on c (receptivity for positive impacts) In qualitative assessment: PIMr,c = (PIMc . PIr ) where PIr = policy intensity in r

14. 6. TEQUILA SIP: an Interactive Simulation Package The TEQUILA model is operated through an interactive simulation device, specifically built for Espon (3.2): TEQUILA SIP • interactive, easy to build and operate • working on different layers (particularly: Europe 29 and NUTS 3) and on any EU policy As a pioneering and prototype experiment, TEQUILA SIP was applied to the assessment of the Territorial Impact of EU transport policy (TEN-TINA), using existing quantitative ESPON assessments and data base Territorial level : NUTS 3 (1329 regions) Collaboration of ESPON teams in data supply is gratefully acknowledged

15. 7. Application to TENs policies

16. 7. Application to TENs policies: PIM

17. 7. Application to TENs policies: sensitivity

18. 8. The interactive package

19. 8. The interactive package

20. 8. The interactive package: Impact on Efficiency

21. 8. The interactive package: PIM on accessibility

22. 9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Efficiency

23. 9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Quality

24. 9. Mapping results: impact on Territorial Identity

25. 9. Mapping results: General Impact

26. Beyond TEQUILA: another sip? a. Improving theory • cause-effect chains: unintentional side-effects of policies • territorial preferences and utility functions b. Improving modelling effort • Interregional spillover effects (economic, environmental) c. Enlarging data base • construction/destruction of territorial capital: a paradigm shift in territorial accounts d. Picking the right policies: as selective as possible! Avoid complex policies (such as cohesion policy). Better: competitiveness pol., excellence pol., infrastr., capacity building, water managm. policies).

27. THANKS As the EU Ministers stated at the end of the Leipzig Charter: “we look ahead with confidence” Thanks for your attention! Roberto CamagniDipartimento di Ingegneria GestionalePolitecnico di MilanoPiazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - 20133 MILANOtel: +39 02 2399.2744  - 2750 secr.fax: +39 02 2399.2710roberto.camagni@polimi.ithttp://econreg.altervista.org