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Always look on the bright side of life Why employers are upbeat, but graduates might want to prepare for the worst. Tristram Hooley Chief Research Officer. Acknowledgements. I’m drawing extensively on ISE research in this presentation.
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Always look on the bright side of lifeWhy employers are upbeat, but graduates might want to prepare for the worst • Tristram Hooley • Chief Research Officer
Acknowledgements • I’m drawing extensively on ISE research in this presentation. • But I’m also drawing on a range of other sources, notably analysis of DLHE, the Labour Force Survey and the Employer Perspectives Survey. • The work of Charlie Ball at HECSU is particularly important and I’m using some material from a presentation that we did together recently.
So most graduates aren’t going into graduate schemes • Graduates are also: • Being recruited ‘direct to desk’ in larger companies • Working for large companies • Working for SMEs (around 30% of all graduates) • Working in non-graduate roles • Becoming self-employed
Place also matters! • London is the most important graduate labour market. • Outside of London graduates tend to be concentrated in the big cities. • Graduates are not as mobile as they are often portrayed to be.
Grads in non-grad roles https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/19-07-2018/DLHE-publication-201617 https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/graduatesintheuklabourmarket/2017#graduates-and-non-graduates-in-work 75.3% males in graduate roles 72.5% females in graduate roles
What do graduates do? 2017 graduates after six months Data comes from HESA Destination of Leavers of Higher Education 2016/17
Profession roles that graduates go into Most common professional level occupations for new graduates from 2017 Data comes from HESA Destination of Leavers of Higher Education 2016/17
Shortages • Highest number of hard to fill jobs • Nurses • Programmers and software development professionals • HR and recruitment • Medical practitioners • Welfare and housing associate professionals • Business sales executives • IT user support technicians • Sales accounts and business development managers • Marketing associate professionals • General and specialist engineers • Managers and directors in retail and wholesale • Design and development engineers • Web design and development professionals • Veterinarians • Chartered and certified accountants • Highest proportions of vacancies that were hard to fill • Medical practitioners 93.0% • Veterinarians 86.8% • Draughtspersons 72.6% • Nurses 72.1% • Electronics engineers 63.3% • Electrical engineers 58.8% • Civil engineers 57.9% • Quantity surveyors 56.6% • Web design and development professionals 54.1% • Design and development engineers 53.9% • Environment professionals 52.6% • Pharmacists 52.5% • Estimators, valuers and assessors 52.2% • Programmers and software development 50.0%
Graduate premium • At the age of 29… • The average male graduate earns 25% more than the average man with 5 GCSEs. • The average woman earns 50% more. • When we control for various demographic characteristics the premium is… • 8% for men • 28% for women https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759278/The_impact_of_undergraduate_degrees_on_early-career_earnings.pdf
Employers want to increase the diversity of their workforce • Current hires are not representative of the population. those who have attended state schools, women, first generation graduates and disabled people are the most under-represented groups. • Almost all employers are prioritising diversity. With some very focused on multiple diversity strands. • 77% are changing attraction and marketing. • 67% are changing recruitment and selection.
What skills do employers report that hires lack? • Where do graduates out perform apprentices? • x4 dressing appropriately • x2 presentation skills • x2 data analysis skills • x2 IT skills • x2 interpersonal skills • x2 writing skills • x2 problem-solving skills
How are skills acquired? • 87% of employers agreed that students who had completed a placement or internship had better skills. • 19% of employers agreed that students who had completed a postgraduate degree came with better skills. • 12% report that postgraduate qualified hires progress more quickly in terms of salary.
The UK economy since 2008 • The economy took five years to get back to the size it was before 2008. • Unemployment has been falling since the recession. And is now at its lowest point ever. • But earnings haven’t kept up with prices (as we have already seen with the graduates). • Productivity has also been stagnant. • See https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/the2008recession10yearson/2018-04-30
The global economy • The global economy is not in great shape at the moment. • The IMF is predicting slow but stable growth in the global economy over the next couple of years. But this will be particularly weak in advanced economies. • But, Brexit, the US/China trade war and other forms of political and economic instability mean that there is quite a lot of risk in predictions.
Economic vulnerability • “We are in danger of sleepwalking into a future crisis… There is going to have to be a severe awakening to the escalation of risks, but we are in a leaderless world… In an interconnected world there is an escalation of risks. We have had a decade of stagnation and we are now about to have a decade of vulnerability.” • Gordon Brown
Are you concerned about finding the talent you need after Brexit?
What are you concerned about? • Filling general entry level roles 17% • Finding general experienced hires 17% • Filling specialist roles at the entry level 32% • Finding specialist experienced hires 38%
Lessons from the past: Changes in the size of the graduate labour market as reported by ISE members
What can graduates do? • Good career management makes sense in every labour market. • Learn how to read the labour market. • Think carefully about their sectoral and geographical positioning. • Avoid responsibilising ‘failure’. You didn’t cause a global economic meltdown! • Remember that a successful career is about more than just money (or even paid employment). • Recognise the inter-relationship between individual careers and politics and economics. • Try and do something about the world in which we live.
What can careers services do? • Work to improve career support and develop career management skills. • Provide access to, and interpretation of labour market data. You should be both a source of expertise and responsible for developing labour market literacy. • Be careful with how you message ‘success’ and create a norm of a graduate career. • Reassure graduates that failure to achieve a particular outcome may not be their fault. • Help students and graduates to understand what is going on in the labour market. • Encourage them to engage collectively and politically as well as personally.
5 signposts to socially just and contextually aware careers work
About me • Tristram Hooley • tristram@ise.org.uk • Blog: http://adventuresincareerdevelopment.wordpress.com • Twitter: @pigironjoe
References • HECSU https://hecsu.ac.uk/. • High Peak Data https://highpeakdata.wordpress.com/. • Hooley, T., Sultana, R.G. and Thomsen, R. (2018). Career guidance for social justice: Contesting neoliberalism. London: Routledge. • Hooley, T. Sultana, R.G. & Thomsen, R. (2019). Career guidance for emancipation: Reclaiming justice for the multitude. London: Routledge. • International Monetary Fund. (2019). World economic outlook. Washington: IMF. • Institute of Student Employers. (2018). ISE Annual student recruitment survey. London: ISE. • Institute of Student Employers. (2019). Pulse Survey 2019. London: ISE. • Institute of Student Employers. (2019). Student development survey. London: ISE. • Office for National Statistics https://www.ons.gov.uk/. • World Bank Group. (2019). Global economic prospects. Washington: World Bank.
