slide1 l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Forecasting Eddy Ulysses PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Forecasting Eddy Ulysses

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 24

Forecasting Eddy Ulysses - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 222 Views
  • Uploaded on

Dynamic Positioning Conference. November 15 - 16, 2005. Sensors II. Forecasting Eddy Ulysses. Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc. (Narragansett, RI). When will the Loop/eddy hit our site?. ?.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Forecasting Eddy Ulysses' - arleen


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

Dynamic Positioning Conference

November 15 - 16, 2005

Sensors II

Forecasting Eddy Ulysses

Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson

Horizon Marine, Inc.

(Marion, MA)

Sergei Frolov

Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc.

(Narragansett, RI)

slide2

When will the Loop/eddy hit our site?

?

?

W O C

Waiting On Currents….

When will it go away?

?

How long will it shut us down?

slide3

LOOP CURRENT/EDDY

MODEL FORECAST

Frontal boundary

Cyclone

Center

slide4

EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM COMPONENTS

OBSERVATIONAL DATA

INITIALIZATION

COMPONENT

HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE

PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES

NOWCAST

FORECAST

PREDICTION

COMPONENT

slide5

TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM

AUTOMATED DATA ASSIMILATION

SATELLITE

ALTIMETRY

MODEL

NOWCAST

FORECAST

slide6

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ANALYSIS

15 SEPTEMBER 2004

EDDY WATCH GULF CHART

15 SEPTEMBER 2004

MC

GC

WR

Courtesy of R. Leben CU-CCAR

slide7

AEF- HORIZON EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM

ALL OBSERVATIONAL

DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME

INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS

INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE

INITIAL CONDITIONS

(NOWCAST)

MODEL

FORECAST

slide8

OBSERVATIONAL DATA

  • Drifting buoys
  • Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs (AXBTs)
  • Ocean current surveys
  • Rig mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs)
  • SST and ocean color
  • Rig and pilot observations
  • Altimetry
slide9

FAR HORIZON DRIFTING BUOYS

  • EXPERIENCE
  • Over 1700 FHDs successfully deployed at sea
  • Eddy Watch – GOM (1705)
  • Eddy Watch – Trinidad (69)
  • Hurricane
  • Oil Spill
  • Search & Rescue
  • Ring & Eddy Surveys
  • Vessel Tracking
  • Instrument Recovery
  • Plankton Studies, etc.
slide11

OCEAN CURRENT SURVEYS

RIG-MOUNTED ADCPs – EDDYNET

EDDY ULYSSES

LOOP

CURRENT

SATELLITE IMAGERY

slide12

EDDY WATCH GOM CHART

GULF of MEXICO

09 September 2004

EDDY WATCH REPORT

CE

EDDY

ULYSSES

WE

CE

LOOP

CURRENT

TITANIC

EDDY

slide13

EDDY WATCH CENTRAL GULF CHART

GULF of MEXICO

09 September 2004

EDDY WATCH REPORT

CE

EDDY

ULYSSES

CE

LC

slide14

IDENTIFICATION OF EDDY FEATURES

  • Eddy size
  • Eddy shape
  • Rotation and migration
  • Vertical density structure
  • Swirl speed
  • Surrounding cyclonic eddies
slide15

INITIALIZATION COMPONENT

  • Analysis of observational data
  • Identification of significant eddy features
  • Initialization component
  • Formulation of a “nowcast”
  • Model forecast
slide16

COMPARISON OF TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM…

NOWCAST

AUTOMATED DATA ASSIMILATION

SATELLITE

ALTIMETRY

MODEL

FORECAST

….WITH AEF-HMI EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM

ALL OBSERVATIONAL

DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME

INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE

INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS

INITIAL CONDITIONS

(NOWCAST)

FORECAST

MODEL

slide17

09 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART

09 SEPTEMBER 2004 NOWCAST

slide18

15 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART

15 SEPTEMBER 2004 FORECAST

slide23

SUMMARY

  • New Loop Current/Eddy forecasting system now available
  • Skill in predicting currents out 1 month
  • Advance knowledge of currents answers questions