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ASPRS/CRSP IPT * 10 Year Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Forecast

ASPRS/CRSP IPT * 10 Year Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Forecast May 24, 2000 *Views presented are IPT opinion and do not necessarily reflect NASA or ASPRS position

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ASPRS/CRSP IPT * 10 Year Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Forecast

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  1. ASPRS/CRSP IPT* 10 YearRemote Sensing Industry (RSI)Forecast May 24, 2000 *Views presented are IPT opinion and do not necessarily reflect NASA or ASPRS position

  2. As we enter the Information Era, The Commercial Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) is on the verge of a period of accelerated growth with significant potential impact on the U.S. Socio-economic Environmental National security To maximize the potential, there is an urgent need to accurately determine future customer/user-driven remote sensing needs and requirements … Commercial Government Academia and measure success Standards Baselines Criteria Background

  3. Background • August 1999 • Under a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), ASPRS and NASA Commercial Remote Sensing Program have combined resources and expertise to develop a baseline and forecast of the Remote Sensing Industry Market

  4. Vision and Mission Within 5 years, the joint ASPRS/NASA CRSP endeavor will produce a cohesive, comprehensive Remote Sensing Industry analysis that will serve as the planning standard for both U.S. Government and private industry enterprises and facilitate U.S. dominance in this highly competitive market. By the end of FY 2004, ASPRS and CRSP will jointly develop a process that: • Enables analysis of the Remote Sensing Industry • Baselines the industry • Presents a 10-year business forecast

  5. Integrated Product Team (IPT) • Working Group IPTs Formed as Needed • Lit. Search: Jim Plasker • Interview: Charles Mondello and Ron Rabin • Survey: Bill Piper andJim Plasker • Forecast: Ron Rabin and Mindy Brown • Marketing: Mindy Brown and Patrick Skrmetti

  6. Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan

  7. Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan • Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) • Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users (Jan 2001) • Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) • Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)

  8. SAA Near-term Goals • Create and maintain interest and awareness • Develop process • Interview • Survey • Literature search • Market forecast • Present plan and interim results (May 2000) • Present Phase I results (Dec 2000) Your Feedback Essential

  9. Commercial/Private/Not for Profit Government Federal State Local Academia Market Sectors

  10. Remote Sensing Industry Business Segments Platforms & Sensors Data Collection Data Processing Support Elements Industry Intermediaries • Hardware • Software • Etc. • VARs • Consultants • Etc. End-User

  11. Market Segments

  12. Market Segments NAICS: Market segments have been mapped to the North American Industry Classification System (formerly the SIC codes) for the Remote Sensing Industry to provide the ability to correlate future economic census data retrospectively to market forecasts.

  13. Forecast Framework Customer Segments Business Segments Commercial Support Elements Government Intermediaries Market Segments Data Processing Academia Data Collection Utilities Mapping Forestry Civil Gov’t Exploration/ Resources Insurance Telecomms Real Estate Agriculture National/ Global Security Entertainment/ Media Transportation Environmental

  14. Literature Search Interviews Market Forecast ANALYSIS Survey Study Components • Literature Search • Interviews • Survey • Market Forecast

  15. Literature Review • Frost & Sullivan 1998/1999 • KPMG • Merrill Lynch

  16. Commercial Sector Interviews • Summary: • These preliminary results apply to commercial sector only • This commercial sample represents about 20% of targeted 150 companies • Government and academia sectors to be added Companies tend to operate in multiple business segments

  17. Commercial Sector Markets

  18. Competition The international playing field is not level. U.S. Companies are not "part of the Government" as are foreign competitors Foreign competitor workforce trains in U.S. Smaller companies have trouble "staying in the game” due to investment costs Issue: US Governmentrole? Industry role? Emerging Key Factors & Barriers

  19. Governmental influence is pervasive... Legislation and policies restrict U.S. company foreign sales, but do not hinder foreign companies Government is predominant purchaser of data Mergers with foreign companies are problematic Standardization Issues: Who should lead? Is anybody now? Could/Should U.S. Government and Industry become closer “Partners” & “Speak with one voice?” Emerging Key Factors & Barriers

  20. Emerging Key Factors & Barriers • Technology: Innovations needed to... • Speed availability of information/Enhance delivery time • “Real Time” Decision Support at user’s fingertips • Provide information valued by user • Develop system of systems that integrate/merge applications, and provide multi-disciplinary solutions • Lower costsIssues: How can the industry focus more sharply on real needs and requirements? Roles of industry? Role of U.S. Government?

  21. Emerging Key Factors & Barriers • Education is multi-faceted problem... • Workforce trained & educated to appropriate progression of task levels • The requirement RS skills in the US is high, qualified applicants few • How many students do we train and retain? (foreign students train in US, return home) • Knowledgeable customers/users • Issues: Can “workforce” shortfalls be solved by current education "pipeline"? Whose responsibility is “knowledgeable” customer?

  22. Emerging Key Factors & Barriers • Lack of customer knowledge inhibits market growth • Users are not fully aware of potential benefits • Application-based marketing and prototype testing are vehicles for user enlightenment • Issue: Industry investment is needed to cultivate the market • Economy has heavy impact on U.S. remote sensing industry • Majority of RSI companies are small and sensitive to economic fluctuations • Issue: Sales depend on available customer/user purchasing power

  23. Future Industry Trends • Increased growth and competition • Scope is Global: Growing Global Market, growing global competition; U.S. Government and U.S. industry vs. foreign nations and industry at home and abroad • Continued importing of new technology: changes, insertions and improvements • LIDAR, SAR, system of systems, unattended systems, micro-systems, etc. • Increased personal use of remote sensing information • Also mentioned: More timely delivery, continuing shortage of qualified people, fewer companies (mergers, failures, realignments)

  24. Market Forecast

  25. Market Forecast • 150 Interviews will be used to profile commercial organizations • 20% Complete • Government and Academia Sectors will be added • Survey to include entire ASPRS membership and other industry groups [August - October 2000] • Phase I interview and survey results available [December 2000] • Literature search • Analysis • Market forecast

  26. Current World RSI Market Projections Based on conventional approaches ... • 2000 World RSI revenues estimated over $4 billion • U.S. market • Aerial imagery dominates • Software is significant component • High resolution space-based imagery just entering market • Increasing demand for high-resolution panchromatic and multi- spectral data (space-based collection) • Basic market strategy: Technology push to new consumer-driven markets • Integrated orthophotography unit cost declining Source: Frost & Sullivan 1999

  27. World wide Remote Sensing Market ? Based in part on Frost and Sullivan, 1999 Projected Market Forecast • Assumes inelastic market, therefore could be conservative • Out years difficult to predict • Market analysis process will better define the future What Happens When You Go “Out-of-the-Box”?

  28. What If...????? • Space-based imagery proliferation results in new markets • The workforce issues are resolved • User knowledge/awareness is enhanced • U.S. Government levels the playing field for international competition

  29. Existing technologies inserted in existing application LIDAR Radar SAR/IFSAR Commercial satellites GPS Emergent technologies enrich existing applications Electronic & wireless information transfer Hyperspectral Multi-returns radar Foliage Penetrating (Fopen) radar New systems are created to support RSI Unattended systems Systems of systems Knowledge-based decision aids Personal use systems New technologies create new merged applications Micro-electronics Micro power Multi sensors in single platforms Bandwidth increase What If...????? Technologies are combined in creative, innovative ways to meet customer/user requirements Time

  30. Then ? and What if ??? ... • Remote sensing resources are increasingly applied to broader issues related to socio-economic improvement, environment, infrastructure, disaster mitigation, etc • Use of remote sensing information becomes increasingly ubiquitous and transparent to users, especially in the domain of personal-use systems More Answers at the December Meeting

  31. ? Estimating/Forecasting Future RS Market • Example Factors for Consideration • Addressable market • Potential sales; revenues; • profit margins • Investment • Potential influences of market globalism • Better market measures

  32. Market Summary Growth? YES!!! Amount related to creative, innovative solutions to meet real needs of users and customer’s requirements with focus on remote sensing information rather than simply supplying data and imagery More details in December

  33. Industry Research & Survey Methodology

  34. Purpose To better understand the industry: Current baseline of industry A 10-year industry forecast An estimate of future industry trends Future workforce needs ASPRS/NASA Joint Industry Survey

  35. Perform preliminary interviews Develop online questions Design database Expand on premise Establish e-mail list Collect/analyzedata Survey Plan Outline

  36. To characterize the Remote Sensing Industry for current operations and future expectations in terms of: Average firm size The primary markets they serve Trends and directions of the industry forces affecting the growth of the industry Establishing the current and future workforce needs Commercial Survey Objective

  37. To define the changes in the 2000-2010 period: numbers of students, majors/minors, degrees, certificates faculty recruitment- specialties to be hired technology acquisition and laboratory development disciplinary and interdisciplinary program development To understand the business and governmental environments most applicable to this community. For example: business-university partnership commercialization efforts research funding, equipment funds registration/certification regulations friction between private sector and educational project work Academic Survey Objectives

  38. We Will Be Conducting an Online Survey That Will Begin Like This: ASPRS/NASAJoint Industry Survey

  39. Industry Survey Click here to begin

  40. Care to Join Us??? Contact:Charles Mondello or Ron Rabinforecast@asprs.orgFor copies of presentation: www.asprs.org Contributing Organizations Include:NOAASpencer B. Gross, Inc.University of UtahKodakSpace ImagingEarthdata TechnologiesPAR Government SystemsAutometric

  41. The End

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