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ASPRS/CRSP IPT * 10 Year Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Forecast May 24, 2000 *Views presented are IPT opinion and do not necessarily reflect NASA or ASPRS position

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asprs crsp ipt 10 year remote sensing industry rsi forecast

ASPRS/CRSP IPT* 10 YearRemote Sensing Industry (RSI)Forecast

May 24, 2000

*Views presented are IPT opinion and do not necessarily reflect NASA or ASPRS position

background
As we enter the Information Era, The Commercial Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) is on the verge of a period of accelerated growth with significant potential impact on the U.S.

Socio-economic

Environmental

National security

To maximize the potential, there is an urgent need to accurately determine future customer/user-driven remote sensing needs and requirements …

Commercial

Government

Academia

and measure success

Standards

Baselines

Criteria

Background
background3
Background
  • August 1999
  • Under a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), ASPRS and NASA Commercial Remote Sensing Program have combined resources and expertise to develop a baseline and forecast of the Remote Sensing Industry Market
vision and mission
Vision and Mission

Within 5 years, the joint ASPRS/NASA CRSP endeavor will produce a cohesive, comprehensive Remote Sensing Industry analysis that will serve as the planning standard for both U.S. Government and private industry enterprises and facilitate U.S. dominance in this highly competitive market.

By the end of FY 2004, ASPRS and CRSP will jointly develop a process that:

  • Enables analysis of the Remote Sensing Industry
  • Baselines the industry
  • Presents a 10-year business forecast
slide5

Integrated Product Team (IPT)

  • Working Group IPTs Formed as Needed
    • Lit. Search: Jim Plasker
    • Interview: Charles Mondello and Ron Rabin
    • Survey: Bill Piper andJim Plasker
    • Forecast: Ron Rabin and Mindy Brown
    • Marketing: Mindy Brown and Patrick Skrmetti
space act agreement saa plan7
Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan
  • Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000)
  • Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users (Jan 2001)
  • Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003)
  • Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)
slide8

SAA Near-term Goals

  • Create and maintain interest and awareness
  • Develop process
    • Interview
    • Survey
    • Literature search
    • Market forecast
  • Present plan and interim results (May 2000)
  • Present Phase I results (Dec 2000)

Your Feedback Essential

market sectors
Commercial/Private/Not for Profit

Government

Federal

State

Local

Academia

Market Sectors
slide10

Remote Sensing Industry

Business Segments

Platforms & Sensors

Data

Collection

Data Processing

Support

Elements

Industry

Intermediaries

  • Hardware
  • Software
  • Etc.
  • VARs
  • Consultants
  • Etc.

End-User

market segments12
Market Segments

NAICS:

Market segments have been mapped to the North American Industry Classification System (formerly the SIC codes) for the Remote Sensing Industry to provide the ability to correlate future economic census data retrospectively to market forecasts.

slide13

Forecast Framework

Customer

Segments

Business Segments

Commercial

Support

Elements

Government

Intermediaries

Market Segments

Data Processing

Academia

Data Collection

Utilities

Mapping

Forestry

Civil Gov’t

Exploration/

Resources

Insurance

Telecomms

Real Estate

Agriculture

National/

Global Security

Entertainment/

Media

Transportation

Environmental

study components

Literature

Search

Interviews

Market

Forecast

ANALYSIS

Survey

Study Components
  • Literature Search
  • Interviews
  • Survey
  • Market Forecast
literature review
Literature Review
  • Frost & Sullivan 1998/1999
  • KPMG
  • Merrill Lynch
commercial sector interviews
Commercial Sector Interviews
  • Summary:
  • These preliminary results apply to commercial sector only
  • This commercial sample represents about 20% of targeted 150 companies
  • Government and academia sectors to be added

Companies tend to operate in multiple business segments

emerging key factors barriers
Competition

The international playing field is not level.

U.S. Companies are not "part of the Government" as are foreign competitors

Foreign competitor workforce trains in U.S.

Smaller companies have trouble "staying in the game” due to investment costs

Issue: US Governmentrole? Industry role?

Emerging Key Factors & Barriers
emerging key factors barriers19
Governmental influence is pervasive...

Legislation and policies restrict U.S. company foreign sales, but do not hinder foreign companies

Government is predominant purchaser of data

Mergers with foreign companies are problematic

Standardization

Issues: Who should lead? Is anybody now? Could/Should U.S. Government and Industry become closer “Partners” & “Speak with one voice?”

Emerging Key Factors & Barriers
emerging key factors barriers20
Emerging Key Factors & Barriers
  • Technology: Innovations needed to...
    • Speed availability of information/Enhance delivery time
      • “Real Time” Decision Support at user’s fingertips
    • Provide information valued by user
    • Develop system of systems that integrate/merge applications, and provide multi-disciplinary solutions
    • Lower costsIssues: How can the industry focus more sharply on real needs and requirements? Roles of industry? Role of U.S. Government?
emerging key factors barriers21
Emerging Key Factors & Barriers
  • Education is multi-faceted problem...
    • Workforce trained & educated to appropriate progression of task levels
      • The requirement RS skills in the US is high, qualified applicants few
      • How many students do we train and retain? (foreign students train in US, return home)
    • Knowledgeable customers/users
    • Issues: Can “workforce” shortfalls be solved by current education "pipeline"? Whose responsibility is “knowledgeable” customer?
emerging key factors barriers22
Emerging Key Factors & Barriers
  • Lack of customer knowledge inhibits market growth
    • Users are not fully aware of potential benefits
    • Application-based marketing and prototype testing are vehicles for user enlightenment
    • Issue: Industry investment is needed to cultivate the market
  • Economy has heavy impact on U.S. remote sensing industry
    • Majority of RSI companies are small and sensitive to economic fluctuations
    • Issue: Sales depend on available customer/user purchasing power
future industry trends
Future Industry Trends
  • Increased growth and competition
    • Scope is Global: Growing Global Market, growing global competition; U.S. Government and U.S. industry vs. foreign nations and industry at home and abroad
  • Continued importing of new technology: changes, insertions and improvements
    • LIDAR, SAR, system of systems, unattended systems, micro-systems, etc.
  • Increased personal use of remote sensing information
  • Also mentioned: More timely delivery, continuing shortage of qualified people, fewer companies (mergers, failures, realignments)
market forecast25
Market Forecast
  • 150 Interviews will be used to profile commercial organizations
    • 20% Complete
    • Government and Academia Sectors will be added
  • Survey to include entire ASPRS membership and other industry groups [August - October 2000]
  • Phase I interview and survey results available [December 2000]
  • Literature search
  • Analysis
  • Market forecast
slide26

Current World RSI Market Projections

Based on conventional approaches ...

  • 2000 World RSI revenues estimated over $4 billion
    • U.S. market
      • Aerial imagery dominates
      • Software is significant component
      • High resolution space-based imagery just entering market
  • Increasing demand for high-resolution panchromatic and multi- spectral data (space-based collection)
  • Basic market strategy: Technology push to new consumer-driven markets
  • Integrated orthophotography unit cost declining

Source: Frost & Sullivan 1999

slide27

World wide Remote Sensing Market

?

Based in part on Frost and Sullivan, 1999

Projected Market Forecast

  • Assumes inelastic market, therefore could be conservative
  • Out years difficult to predict
  • Market analysis process will better define the future

What Happens When You Go “Out-of-the-Box”?

what if
What If...?????
  • Space-based imagery proliferation results in new markets
  • The workforce issues are resolved
  • User knowledge/awareness is enhanced
  • U.S. Government levels the playing field for international competition
what if29
Existing technologies inserted in existing application

LIDAR

Radar

SAR/IFSAR

Commercial satellites

GPS

Emergent technologies enrich existing applications

Electronic & wireless information transfer

Hyperspectral

Multi-returns radar

Foliage Penetrating (Fopen) radar

New systems are created to support RSI

Unattended systems

Systems of systems

Knowledge-based decision aids

Personal use systems

New technologies create new merged applications

Micro-electronics

Micro power

Multi sensors in single platforms

Bandwidth increase

What If...?????

Technologies are combined in creative, innovative ways to meet customer/user requirements

Time

and what if

Then

?

and What if ??? ...
  • Remote sensing resources are increasingly applied to broader issues related to socio-economic improvement, environment, infrastructure, disaster mitigation, etc
  • Use of remote sensing information becomes increasingly ubiquitous and transparent to users, especially in the domain of personal-use systems

More Answers at the December Meeting

slide31

?

Estimating/Forecasting Future RS Market

  • Example Factors for Consideration
  • Addressable market
  • Potential sales; revenues;
  • profit margins
  • Investment
  • Potential influences of market globalism
  • Better market measures
market summary
Market Summary

Growth? YES!!!

Amount related to creative, innovative solutions to meet real needs of users and customer’s requirements with focus on remote sensing information rather than simply supplying data and imagery

More details in December

slide33

Industry Research &

Survey Methodology

asprs nasa joint industry survey
Purpose

To better understand the industry:

Current baseline of industry

A 10-year industry forecast

An estimate of future industry trends

Future workforce needs

ASPRS/NASA Joint Industry Survey
survey plan outline
Perform preliminary interviews

Develop online questions

Design database

Expand on premise

Establish e-mail list

Collect/analyzedata

Survey Plan Outline
commercial survey objective
To characterize the Remote Sensing Industry for current operations and future expectations in terms of:

Average firm size

The primary markets they serve

Trends and directions of the industry forces affecting the growth of the industry

Establishing the current and future workforce needs

Commercial Survey Objective
academic survey objectives
To define the changes in the 2000-2010 period:

numbers of students, majors/minors, degrees, certificates

faculty recruitment- specialties to be hired

technology acquisition and laboratory development

disciplinary and interdisciplinary program development

To understand the business and governmental environments most applicable to this community. For example:

business-university partnership commercialization efforts

research

funding, equipment funds

registration/certification regulations

friction between private sector and educational project work

Academic Survey Objectives
industry survey
Industry Survey

Click here to begin

slide40

Care to Join Us???

Contact:Charles Mondello or Ron Rabinforecast@asprs.orgFor copies of presentation: www.asprs.org

Contributing Organizations Include:NOAASpencer B. Gross, Inc.University of UtahKodakSpace ImagingEarthdata TechnologiesPAR Government SystemsAutometric