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Statistical Approach. try to understand the R simulation needed what kind of distribution will I ask R to use ? Where will I get a reasonable starting point for the magnitude of that variability. Where will I get guesses for realistic variability so I’m not fixing the game. Well. Spring.

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Presentation Transcript
slide2

try to understand the R simulation needed

  • what kind of distribution will I ask R to use?
  • Where will I get a reasonable starting point for the magnitude of that variability.
  • Where will I get guesses for realistic variability so I’m not fixing the game.
slide3

Well

Spring

Native

Pasture

S1

E

TD

Dryland

Pasture

w/ fence

I1

S

B

S2

CP

C

H

DAM

Hayed

Anually

F

MU

P

DC

WT

BV

BU

Fileds

I2

WL

G

CB

Planned

Fence-line

D

O

Rented

CO

Tree

Rows

CS

A

slide8

Anticipating the End:

For Each Parcel:

Old Attributes

Possible Interventions

Use

Yield – Cost

Decision

slide11

NRCS

ARC-GIS

Soil

slide13

Calculating Rangeland Production

1.

Range Science:

1000 lb. Cow with calf consumes

- 26 lbs of dry forage per day

-760 lbs of dry forage per month

1 Animal Unit Month (AUM) = 760 lbs. of dry forage

2.

USDA

One AUM = 915 pounds.

Given:

Annual forage production = 900 pounds per acre.

AUM per acre = (900 pounds per acre) x (25 percent grazing efficiency)

= (225 poundsavailableforage per acre) / (915 pounds per AUM)

= 0.25 AUM per acre.

slide15

Yields

Multiply by 915

Multiply by 780

Hay Yield:

slide18

Vector of soil types for each parcel

Forage Yield Equation

Wheat Yield Equation

Hay Equation

AUM Equation

Income- cost Equation

Stocking Rate

Cumulative Parcel Data

Compare to Current Use

Income- cost Equation

Make Decision

slide19

Range Simulation:

Mean Year

Cumulative Parcel Data

Yield

Stocking Rate Decision