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The main tool kit for our project: Jordmod – a partial equilibrium model of Norwegian agriculture. Ivar Gaasland (SNF). Outline. General characteristics of Jordmod Adaptation at the farm level – Model Farm illustration Adaptation at the sector level – Climate policy scenario

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The main tool kit for our project: Jordmod – a partial equilibrium model of Norwegian agriculture


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the main tool kit for our project jordmod a partial equilibrium model of norwegian agriculture

The main tool kit for our project:Jordmod – a partial equilibrium model of Norwegian agriculture

Ivar Gaasland (SNF)

outline
Outline
  • General characteristics of Jordmod
  • Adaptation at the farm level – Model Farm illustration
  • Adaptation at the sector level – Climate policy scenario
  • Improvement of model – on-going work
  • Use of model - potential
general characteristics
General characteristics
  • Model class
    • Partial equilibrium model (small sector assumptions)
    • Small country assumption
    • Comparative static model
    • Long run perspective
    • Domestic and foreign products perfect substitutes
general characteristics1
General characteristics

north

Price

S

south-west

PW

D

Milk production

general characteristics2
General characteristics
  • Optimization model

Max: producers’ + importers’ + consumers’ surplus

subject to:

1) available land

2) regulations

3) policy targets

  • Policy analysis
    • optimal policy subject to policy targets
    • exogenous policy instruments, like:
      • Subsidies of various kinds
      • Import tariffs and quotas
      • Emission taxes or quotas
general characteristics3
General characteristics
  • 32 production regions (e.g., western Norway)
  • 11 model farm types (e.g., combined milk and beef)
  • 15 products (e.g., milk and beef)
  • 8 intermediaries (e.g., grass fodder)
  • 4 land qualities
    • arable land, food grain
    • arable land, other
    • surface tilled land
    • infield pasture
  • 32 regions
example model farm milk and beef production western norway
Example model farm -milk and beef production Western Norway
  • Separate supply module that constructs model farms for given relative prices, technology, and natural restrictions
  • 36 activities to choose among
  • Most inputs are proportional to the number of animals and land units, but endogenous:
    • Plant yield per land unit = f(nitrogen)
    • Milk production per cow = g(fodder)
    • Functions and coefficients for GHG emission have been attached to activities and production factors
      • IPCC methodology, adapted to Norwegian conditions and practices)
adaptation at the sector level climate policy analysis
Adaptation at the sector level –climate policy analysis

GHG emission target:

  • 30 percent reduction in GHG emission compared to base solution

Policy assumptions:

  • Current policy as a point of departure
  • Market access and export subsidy commitment as in the Doha proposal
  • Carbon tax: NOK 300 per ton GHG emissions
  • Production and land use as high as possible subject to these requirements
climate policy analysis1
Climate policy analysis
  • Abatement costs is negative in agriculture if no value is attributed to agricultural activity beyond the world market price of food
improvements of model on going work
Improvements of model -on-going work
  • Data
    • Regional differences in emission or sequestrationwith respect to land use (e.g., till/no-till; forest) at different land types (e.g., cultivated wetland; mineral soil)
    • Nationally adapted emission coefficients
  • Technologies
    • Restoration of wetland, forest, biogas, bio-char
  • Model aspects
    • Dynamic aspects handled in a comparative static model
    • “Permanence”
use of model potential
Use of model –potential
  • Cost-benefit analysis of different ways to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture
  • Trade-offs between policy objectives, e.g., emission cut vs.:
    • production targets
    • land amenities values
  • What if carbon sequestration on agricultural land is credited?