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Turkey: Solid fundamentals, structural roadblocks Melis Metiner HSBC Economist +90 (212) 376 4618 melismetiner @hsbc.com.t r. Title. EVENT:. DATE:. Turkey has a young, growing population…. Source: UN , HSBC. Favourable debt dynamics…. Source: CBRT. Source: European Mortgage Federation.

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  1. Turkey: Solid fundamentals, structural roadblocks Melis Metiner HSBC Economist +90 (212) 376 4618 melismetiner@hsbc.com.tr Title EVENT: DATE:

  2. Turkey has a young, growing population… Source: UN, HSBC

  3. Favourable debt dynamics… Source: CBRT Source: European Mortgage Federation

  4. And a diversified economy Source: Turkstat

  5. But when it grows, it creates external imbalances… Source: Turkstat

  6. And runs a large current account deficit Source: CBRT

  7. Low domestic savings mean dependence on external financing… Source: Fitch

  8. Which makes Turkey’s growth model an unsustainable one Source: CBRT, Turkstat

  9. Exports are nominally low and low value added Source: Undersecretariat of Trade, HSBC Source: HSBC

  10. While import appetite is strong for both energy and non-energy items Source: Turkstat

  11. High (and volatile) inflation is another issue Source: CEIC, HSBC

  12. … Food inflation in particular Source: Eurostat Source: Turkstat, HSBC

  13. Labour market participation is low… Source: Turkstat Source: World Bank

  14. …And the share of unrecorded employment is high Source: Turkstat

  15. Which translates into a small tax base Source: OECD Source: Ministry of Finance

  16. Turkey faces four structural weaknesses that require structural reform

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