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Capacity Building

User. Observing and Monitoring. Capacity Building. Research, Modelling and Prediction. Climate Services Information System. User Interface. GFCS – DWD‘s first experience Dr. Paul Becker (Vice-President, DWD) through

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Capacity Building

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  1. User Observing and Monitoring Capacity Building Research, Modelling and Prediction Climate Services Information System User Interface GFCS – DWD‘s first experience Dr. Paul Becker (Vice-President, DWD) through Dr. Andreas Becker (Head GPCC and Precipitation Monitoring Unit, DWD) Port of Spain, Trinidad, May 29, 2013

  2. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) / German Met Service Matured know-how in weather and climate based on • Strong national presence of DWD by running the most dense and one of the most reliable observastional networks in Europe: • 2360 staff positions (FTEs) • 19 advisory centres including 6 large • branch offices • 1 meteorological training centre • 2 meteorological observatories • 9 radiosonde land stations, 4 on ships • 18 weather radars, 4 wind profilers • 181 primary weather stations (74 staffed) • 1795 secondary weather stations • 17 automated weather stations on ships • about 840 ships with voluntary observers (VOS) • 48 stations measuring radioactivity in the air 900 km (2011) 600 km

  3. Budget approx. 215 Mio € • Revenue 59 Mio € • Funding 156 Mio € DWD in figures Contributions to international Organisations in 2010 Mio € • EUMETSAT 28,7Mio € • EZMW 8,6Mio € • EUMETNET 1,3 Mio € • WMO 3,9 Mio €

  4. ( ) ( ) Climate Services Information System ( ) ( ) ( ) National implementation of GFCS – The process / DWD‘s capabilities Observing and Monitoring Research, Modelling and Prediction Capacity Building • New institutional structure necessary? • New approach to service delivery necessary? User Inferface User Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  5. National implementation of GFCS – The process / DWD‘s abilities • No! Among other NMHS’s DWD is a Cat-4 Climate Service provider! • Maybe! But let’s improve customer orientation of existing delivery mechanisms first before re-inventing wheels. GFCS mechanisms should be instrumental for this process! Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  6. National implementation of GFCS – The German Adaptation Strategy Sectors Energy industry Building Fishery Human health Cross sectoral Water regime management Soil Civil protection Trade and industry Coastal and marine protection Tourism Urban (spatial) development Financial services Agriculture Forestry Transport, Infrastructure Biological diversity Challenge: combining the climate/weather knowledge with sector specific knowledge(impact models)identifying interfaces Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  7. Fields of expertiseof the Business Area Climate and Environment Hydrometeorology Human Biometeorology The Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) contributes to … (Analysis of extreme values) Climate Monitoring Agrometeorology Urban Climate Utilization and modelling of climate projections

  8. Climate Monitoring • National climate reference network • Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly global precipitation climatology and monthly and daily precipitation analyses for the Earth's land surfaces. • WMO GCOS Reference Upper Air Network: GRUAN Lead Centre in Lindenberg • WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW): Global Station Zugspitze-Hohenpeißenberg • RCC on Climate Monitoring for RA VI • EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility – Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF)

  9. Monitoring of the Atmosphere Projekt KLIDADIGI Start: September 2005 National Climate Data Centre • Integration of historicalclimate data • Complete inventorisation of documents and data which contain ancient climate data • Collection and gathering of all available information in a archive in Leipzig • HISTOR - digitalisation of historical ship records (Hamburg)

  10. The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) A German contribution to Climate Monitoring and Research in context of GCOS, WCRP, and WMO • Monthly precipitation • analyses for the • earth‘s landsurface • based on the largest • monthly in situ • precipitation data- • base of the world; • The GPCC database • holds precipitation • observation data • from more than • 89.000 stations in • more than 190 • countries and regions GPCC-Homepage: http://gpcc.dwd.de -> free access to the gridded GPCC analysis products

  11. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Data Coverage of GPCC archive shown in terms of global distribution of stations with records exceeding10 years and thus eligible for the full data product Over 67,200 stations

  12. La Niña Year 2011 featured strong anomalies in annual totals as well as frequent extreme events for certain periods and regions. Year 2011 Precipitation Anomaly [mm/month]

  13. La Niña Year 2011 featured strong anomalies in annual totals as well as frequent extreme events for certain periods and regions. Correlation ENSO Index (SOI) vs. GPCC Precipitation 1901- 2010

  14. Operational global climate forecast and projection Seasonal forecast (EUROSIP) Decadal forecast (MIKLIP) Long-term Climate projections

  15. COSMO-CLM: Regional Climate Modeling CLM-Community is an open international network of scientists, who accepted the CLM Community agreement in all of its details. Currently 42 member institutions; more information: http://www.clm-community.eu

  16. Downscaling of Climate Projections (~ 150 km) (50 km – 10 km) (500 m – 50 m) A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  17. Urban Climate Change Example: Change in number of summer days 1961 – 2100 in Frankfurt/Main MUKLIMO_3 forced by CLM (A1B)

  18. CC adaptation accomplished Climate Service:German Heat Health Warning System • More than 7000 casualties due to 2003 heat wave in Germany • Increasing probability of similar event in the future according to IPCC • two warning levels • thermo-physiologically relevant (comprehensive heat budget model for human body following an adaptability approach) • Lead time: 7 days • spatial resolution: 415 warning districts • additional information on in-door temperature enhance the modelling of the night-time periods

  19. ● Expert analysis of precipitation records and downscaling of climate projection reveals a significant trend to more frequent heavy precipitation events. ● New run-off projections demand adaptive measures of municipalities and counties to prepare and resize run-off systems. ● DWD issues and updates an atlas of heavy precipitation. The climatology encompasses intensity-duration curves and return periods being crucial information for municpalities and counties to properly re-size their channel (run-off) systems. GFCS Sector Water • DWD provides core hydrometeorological information to federal agencies in charge for flood protection and water resources management. • Example CC adaptation issue: More frequent heavy precipitation ● In an unique and unprecedented effort, DWD currently performs a decadal re-analysis of the entire homogenized radar data archive, to ultimately enhance the temporal resolution of heavy precipitation climatologies

  20. Customers: • Services: ● Street building bureaus ● High resolution precipitation data sets ● Energy Supplier ● Site specific precipitation statistics ● Universities ● Planning Bureaus ● radar based quantiative precipitation analysis ● Water management and run-off agencies ● Data on evaporation related to water sheds or other areas of interest ● Federal-, State- and County Agencies ● Particular assessments and consulting Our Services and Customers in the water sector

  21. B. Rudolf, A. Gratzki, G. Malitz, and A. Becker, Water related services and developments at DWD; EGU TM on Flood and Climate, 4 October 2012, Potsdam KLIWAS – Impacts of climate change on waterways and navigation – options to adapt www.kliwas.de Part of the German Adaptation Strategy Prepare waterborne transportation for the impacts of climate change: Acquisition and regionalization of global and regional climate projections (ensemble approach) Assessing the vulnerability of navigation (incl. an estimation of the future costs of this particular transport mode) Identification of options for action and development of sector-specific adaptation strategies (waterways, coasts, and estuaries)

  22. Climate Service to protect river borne transport caps "high" „low" "high" „low" Change in transport capacity of fleet (Example: Rotterdam – Oberrhein Fleet Scenario Change in transport capacity Compared to 1961-1990 (Mt / a) Rhein River Run-off Scenario Source: Holtmann et al., 2011

  23. DWD‘s regional Climate / Weather bureaus User Interface User / Service provider interaction Very often the development of suitable adaptationmeasures requires an intensive consulting activity In Germany decisions on climate issues are commonly made on a sub-national level Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  24. German Climate Portal Sector agriculture / DWD‘s German Climate Atlas Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  25. User Interface German Climate Portal Climate Services for the Länder Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  26. Interdisciplinary Cooperation KLIWA (German Abbrev.) - Climate Change and Adaptation of Water Management • Activities: • Analysis of Observations(Climate- and water body monitoring) • Assessment (and downscaling) of available regional climate scenarios • Working Groups, Workshops und Symposia A joint project of DWD and the southern Federal States, Bavaria(Bayern), Baden-Württemberg, (since 1999), and Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) (since 2007)

  27. B. Rudolf, A. Gratzki, G. Malitz, and A. Becker, Water related services and developments at DWD; EGU TM on Flood and Climate, 4 October 2012, Potsdam KLIWA: Consideration of a climate change factor in new structural flood protection measures Example dam: Construct as planned, but prepare for future increase of dam height

  28. User Interface German Climate Portal Forum Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  29. Setting-up and operation of • an useful meteorological observation system • a suitable data management system • reliable user support and consultancy • climate monitoring and modelling • a long-term archive for meteorological and climatological data • DWD support for • Regional Science Service Centres (RSSC) for climate change and adaptive land management in Africa Capacity Building Existing demand for climate services in developing countries A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  30. an Initiative of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South-Africa, Zambia and Germany • Goal: to minimize climate change impacts on agriculture and water resources in Southern Africa • Three pillars: „Research, Capacity buildung and regional consultance and Information, product service • Finance by German minitstry of research • www.sasscal.org SASSCAL: Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) a Regional Science Service Centre (RSSC) in Southern Africa A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  31. Capacity Building:SASSCAL: proposed DWD Contributions • Satellite based climate analysis • Support development of suitable climate monitoring products • Support management of historical and recent climate data • Development of a user friendly climate data management system to support operation of an RSSC and the national met service • Support built up of a quality controlled and documented climate data archive to serve a basis for independent regional climate research activities. • Pursue concepts of data rescue and archival with regard to regional data in close cooperation with national met services of the targe region. • Provision of climate data for other SASSCAL activities in the field of land use, farming through development of suitable access-tools SASSCAL could be representative for similar activities adopted to the specific needs of the Caribbean countries

  32. National implementation of GFCS The DWD is best suited to serve and maintain the capabilities required for the national implementation of the GFCS. Rather than creating a new institutional structure on national level, the outstanding challenges are: to integrate the existing initiatives, e.g. the German Adaptation Strategy to spread the news on the GFCS: Answer What and Why questions to involve the relevant stakeholders / to identify interfaces to integrate seamless prediction into the services portfolio-> GFMS? A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  33. National implementation of GFCS / Spread the Word • DWD • supports suitable webinars • hosts GFCS Sector specific national information and user workshops • Installation of sector specific user forums corresponding to the major theme of the annual DWD climate symposium to spread the news on the GFCS: Answer What and Why questions A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

  34. Wrap Up In Germany, the scientific and technical capabilities and the infrastructure of DWD are the backbone for both, the aspired climate service components of GFCS on international scale and „downstream“ applications on the national scale. 3.: DWD is actively networking with its national and international partners in the area of climate services. This is crucial also to avoid duplication of efforts. 1.: DWD provides climate services on all time scales for a broad spectrum of users. Our climate services encompass all GFCS components, from climate monitoring to qualified consultancy based on state-of-the-art climate modeling and research. DWD’s climate services are provided at 24/7 on every day of the year. Results 2.: DWD investigates climate change impacts in diverse sectors by making use of climate monitoring, research, modelling and projection.

  35. Outlook Sea-level rise poses a boundary condition that is already regional at the climate change forcing level DWD is partner of provider of this climate information (DKRZ, German Climate Research Centre, Hamburg 35

  36. User Observing and Monitoring Capacity Building Research, Modelling and Prediction Climate Services Information System User Interface Many thanks! Andreas for Paul Becker Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

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