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Travel Behavior and mode choice in the Czech Republic

Travel Behavior and mode choice in the Czech Republic. Markéta Braun Kohlová Charles University of Prague, Environment Centre Czech Republic. Structure of the presentation. I) CUEC research activities in transport II) Modal choice modelling III) Potential demand for cycling infrastructure

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Travel Behavior and mode choice in the Czech Republic

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  1. Travel Behavior and mode choicein the Czech Republic Markéta Braun Kohlová Charles University of Prague, Environment Centre Czech Republic

  2. Structure of the presentation • I) CUEC research activities in transport • II) Modal choice modelling • III) Potential demand for cycling infrastructure • IV) Future research

  3. PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport • Estimation of Cost Functions of public transport providers (for welfare analysis of regulation in cities) • Quantification of external costs • Regulation analysis • Analyses of the household demand systems • Travel behavior – modal choice

  4. PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport Ad1. Estimation of Cost Functions of public transport providers (for welfare analysis of regulation in cities) • the cost function parameters • parameters of scale effects Ad2. Quantification of external costs • ExternE methodology Ad3. Regulation analysis • air-pollution regulation in Czech cities • CBA (cycling infrastructure, Pilsen) Brůhová-Foltýnová, Braun Kohlová, 2006

  5. PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport Ad4. Analyses of the household demand systems • The Household Budget Surveys (CSÚ) • N=3,000; quota sampling; quazi panel • 13 household groups • social status> farmers, retired, single or pair with / without children  determining transport use • municipality size> (up to 2.000, 2.000-20.000, above 20.000)  determining transport mode availability Estimates: • Own-price, cross-price and income elasticities (for fuels consumption, public transport use) • Distributional effect assessment for motor fuel taxation Brůha, Ščasný, AERE, 2006

  6. Selected Results – expenditures (%) • Elasticities for income deciles and 9 social groups - for motor fuels only • 1) own price el.: 2) Income el.: • - average for deciles:- 0.41 - declines with income • - for social group: - 0.65 - average for decile:+ 1.07 • - the highest for pensioners:- 0.82 - for social group:+ 0.6Ščasný-Brůha (2003) • Brůha-Ščasný (2004) • Uncompensated price elasticities: Fuel price Public transport fares • Fuel use – urban - 1.04 0.28 • Fuel use – rural - 0.4 0.03 • Public Transport Use 0.3 - 0.65

  7. PART II - Modal choice

  8. Modal split in Pilsen and other European Cities Source: Informace o dopravě v Plzni 1997 - 2003, ECI 2003

  9. Case study: survey City of Pilsen Intra-urban travel only Population: 155 000 Adults (18+) Quota sample: 763 Working days only Year: 2005

  10. Travel behavior– personal (individual) Dependent variables: • binary choice models 1) Car ownership 2) Modal Choice = a mean chosen on experimental working (included in the chain of the trips) - Car use (driver, passenger) - Bicycle use

  11. Car ownership - logit model

  12. Attitudes Measurement • General statements (26) • Agreement on the 5 point Likert-scale • Factor Analysis (4 extracted): I) BIKE – neither convenient nor appropriate II) PUBLIC TRANSPORT – convenient for all the purposes III) CAR – status symbol and necessity IV) SPEED TOLERANCE

  13. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN INDEX Statements (6): reported behaviour seriousness of environmental threat • RESULTS: -  - public transport + walk -  - car - Ø - bike

  14. Car choice - logit model

  15. PART III – Estimate of a potential demand for cycling infrastructure • For the CBA of cycling infrastructure in Pilsen • Stated preferences design = willingness to replace the current means of transport with bicycle

  16. Identification of more frequent cyclists… if cycling infrastructure improved

  17. Demand for cycling -estimate of its potential change Current transportation behavior • Diaries: • All trips (on previous working day) • Purpose, distance, duration, means of transport Demand = aggregate of population preferences stated as a potential choice of means of transport • Quantified: persons, kms, minutes • For current prices • For each trip purpose separately

  18. Change in demand – estimate

  19. PART IV – Future reasearch • Modal choice – data from middle sized and small cities and Prague • residential characteristics • suburban commuting • explain differences in modal split between cities • Impact of new constructed infrastructure on modal choice (in-depth interview) • Validation of SP method • Regulation analysis • Economic model of travel behavior (mode specific costs) • Analysis of household demand system

  20. The research project has been supported by the grant of the Ministry of Transport No. 1F43E/045/210 „CYCLE 21 – Analysis of Demand for Building of cycling infrastructure“ and the grant of the Ministry of Transport No. 24/2006-430-OPI/3 supported from the Operational Program „Infrastructure“ - Priority 2 (2.4) The support is gratefully acknowledged.

  21. Markéta B R A U N K O H L O V Á marketa.braun.kohlova@czp.cuni.cz +420 251 080 403 http://cozp.cuni.cz Charles university in Prague Environment Center

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