Climate Change and its Impact on Food and Agriculture

1. Climate Change and its Impact on Food and Agriculture Lim Li Ching, Third World Network

2. Climate change - What the science says • IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) • Warming of climate system is unequivocal: 0.74˚C rise from 1906-2005 • Most of the observed increase due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions • Warming by end of 21st century will be worse than expected: projected rise of 1.8-4˚C (best estimate; likely range 1.1-6.4˚C) • Total sea level rise in 20th century is 17cm, projected sea level rise by end 21st century ranges from 18-59cm

3. Climate injustice • With only 4% of the world population, the US accounts for more emissions (30.3%) than 136 developing countries that together are responsible for about 24% of all emissions • 20% of the world’s richest populations are responsible for over 60% of current emissions; if past contributions taken into account, 80% • Billions of the world’s poorest will be impacted most by climate change - those who are least responsible for the problem are paying the price • Some developed countries failing to meet targets for emissions reduction, while US has refused to ratify Kyoto Protocol

4. 200 million climate refugees by 2050

5. Impacts of climate change on agriculture • Moderate local warming (1-3˚C) means slightly increased yields in mid- to high-latitudes, depending on crop • Even small local temperature increases (1- 2˚C) would decrease yields in low-latitudes, especially in tropical and seasonally dry areas, which would increase risk of hunger • Further warming of >3˚C has increasingly negative impacts; global food production is projected to decrease

6. Impacts of climate change on agriculture • Projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and South-East Asia, but could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by mid-21st century • Taken together, and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanisation, the risk of hunger projected to remain very high in several Asian developing countries

7. Impacts of climate change on agriculture • Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease; could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s • Climate change projected by mid-century to reduce water resources in many small islands, to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods

8. Impacts of climate change on agriculture • Heat waves very likely to lead to reduced yields in warmer environments due to heat stress • Heavy precipitation linked to damage of crops, soil erosion, waterlogging of soils • More areas affected by drought, resulting in land degradation, lower yields/crop damage or failure • Extreme high sea level events likely to lead to salinisation of water bodies • Possible increase in pest and disease infestations due to warming temperatures

9. Who are the most vulnerable? • All countries affected by climate change, but poorest countries and populations will suffer earlier and most, even though contributed the least to the causes of climate change • Increased frequency of droughts and floods will affect crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors • Smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and artisanal fisherfolk will suffer complex, localised impacts of climate change

10. Agriculture contributes to climate change • Agriculture releases significant amount of CO2,CH4 and N2O - estimated 5.1 to 6.1 GtCO2-eq/yr in 2005 (10-12% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions) • Including indirect contributions (e.g. land conversion to agriculture, fertilizer production, distribution and farm operations) -> 17-32% of global emissions • Agricultural N2O emissions projected to increase by 35-60% up to 2030 due to increased N fertilizer use and animal manure production

11. Climate change challenge for agriculture • Increased variability, extreme weather events • Potential to irreversibly damage agricultural resource base and lead to food insecurity • Can farmers and farming adapt? • Agriculture contributes 10-12% of anthropogenic GHG emissions • Can agriculture reduce its emissions?

12. What kind of agriculture? • International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science & Technology for Development (IAASTD) 2008 • “Business-as-usual is no longer an option” • High yields and production with industrial farming, high external inputs and high energy consumption • BUT costs to environment and social equity • Radical overhaul of agricultural policy and practice urgently needed

13. IAASTD: Some key findings • Agriculture involves more than yields; there are multiple social, political, cultural, institutional and environmental impacts • The future of agriculture lies in biodiverse, agroecologically based farming that can meet social, economic and environmental goals • Reliance on resource-extractive industrial agriculture is unsustainable, particularly in the face of worsening climate, energy and water crises

14. IAASTD: Some key findings • Short-term technical fixes, including GM crops, cannot adequately address the complex challenges facing agriculture, and often exacerbate social and environmental harms • Achieving food security and sustainable livelihoods requires ensuring access to and control of resources by small-scale farmers, especially women • Fair local, regional and global trading regimes can build local economies, reduce poverty and improve livelihoods

15. IAASTD: Some key findings • Strengthening the human and ecological resilience of agricultural systems improves our capacity to respond to changing environmental and social stresses • Indigenous knowledge and community-based innovations are invaluable part of the solution • Need to build better governance mechanisms and ensure democratic participation by the full range of stakeholders

16. Ecological agriculture and climate change adaptation • Application of farmers’ skills and knowledge • Key to adaptation; to manage complex agroecosystems, breeding locally adapted seed and livestock, producing on-farm fertilizers, etc. • Increased soil fertility and increased organic matter via compost, manures, cover crops etc • Reduces negative effects of drought, while increasing crop productivity • Enhancement of soil water-holding capacity, resilience under unpredictable climatic conditions • Higher water capture during torrential rains, reducing risks of floods

17. Ecological agriculture and climate change adaptation • High degree of diversity -> risk aversion • Respond better to change, pest and diseases • Multiple cropping or polyculture systems • Greater yield stability and less productivity declines during drought • Use of traditional and locally-adapted drought and heat-tolerant varieties and species • Agroforestry systems and mulching • Protect crops against extremes, inhibit moisture loss, reduce heat stress

18. Ecological agriculture and climate change mitigation • Building up carbon in the soil • E.g. legumes, crop residues, cover crops, compost • Enhanced soil fertility stabilizes soil organic matter, may sequester carbon dioxide • Reduced soil erosion (impt. source of CO2 losses) • Using less synthetic external inputs • Production of N fertilizers energy intensive, account for 0.6-1.2% of global emissions • Reduced concentration of easily available mineral N in soils, less N2O emissions • Recycling N: using manures & N-fixing plants • Agroforestry and restoring degraded land

19. Is ecological agriculture productive? • Badgley et al. (2007) examined global dataset of 293 examples: • Organic yields comparable to conventional in developed countries • Organic produced 92% of yield of conventional • Organic practices greatly increase yields in developing countries, especially if existing system is low input • Organic produced 180% of yield of conventional • Organic can produce enough food on global per capita basis to sustain current human population

20. Examples of yield increases • Review of 286 projects in 57 countries (Pretty et al., 2006) • Yields rose on average 79% • Review of 89 projects for which yield data available (Pretty & Hine, 2001) • Yields rose 50-100% for rain-fed crops • Yields rose 5-10% for irrigated crops • Average food production per household rose by 73% for small farmers growing cereals & roots

21. Mainstreaming ecological agriculture • Based on locally available resources, appropriate technologies and specific needs of farmers • Systematic redirection in investment, funding, research, training and policy focus on ecological agriculture needed • Overall support needed from governments and international agencies • Ensure participation of farmers and producers in agricultural decision- and policy-making

22. Action on adaptation and mitigation in agriculture • More research and action on adaptation measures in agriculture, especially in developing countries, in order to assist farmers • Action plans for mitigation measures for agriculture should be urgently researched and implemented • Prioritize financing assistance for climate adaptation and mitigation measures in the agriculture sector in developing countries • Arrangements for sharing of experiences and transfer of good practices in agriculture that can constitute mitigation and adaptation

23. Climate justice now! • A fair global deal - based on equity and principles of burden-sharing, and common but differentiated responsibilities between the North and South to establish science-based targets • Huge and deep cuts needed for the North • There needs to be ‘environmental space’ for sustainable development in the South • Differentiated approach justified as developed countries bear historical responsibility, are largest emitters (especially on per capita basis) and have financial and technological resources • Finances and technology transfer to the South • Repay the climate debt

24. Third World Network www.twnside.org.sgTWN Information Service on Sustainable AgricultureTWN Information Service on Climate Change Thank you!