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A frican M onsoon M ultidisciplinary A nalyses A frikanske M onsun : M ultidisiplinære A nalyser A frikaanse M oesson M ultidisciplinaire A nalyse A nalisi M ultidisciplinare per il M onsone A fricano A frikanischer M onsun: M ultidisziplinäre A nalysen
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Recognising the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will facilitate the multidisciplinary research required to provide improved predictions of the WAM and its impacts.
Flooding in New Orleans due to Katrina (courtesy NOAA)
courtesy A. Aiyyer
NDVI image for 21-31 August 2000, from Pathfinder AVHRR, highlighting the marked meridional gradients in surface conditions over tropical North Africa and zonal symmetry.
Key features of the West African Monsoon Climate System during Boreal summer
Key weather systems in the West African and Tropical Atlantic regions
An ideal region to study scale interactions in the WAM and tropical cyclogenesis
Overview of AMMA-International
US contributions to the AMMA field campaign
EU Integrated Project
DMN, DHN, , EIER, others ...
1. AMMA International
To reach AMMA aims, need to coordinate
-Science (Challenge: disciplines, scales)
-Implementation (Obs, Model,..)
-Data archive and sharing
(2) To provide the underpinning science that relates variability of the WAM to
issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West
African nations and defining and implementing relevant monitoring &
(3)To ensure that the multidisciplinary research carried out in AMMA is
effectively integrated with prediction & decision making activity.
Early Warning Systems, Advice, …
WEATHER & CLIMATE PREDICTION & ITS IMPACTS
Medium Range Seasonal-Interannual Decadal Climate Change
Models & Observations
ST4Capacity building & training
Endorses the Science &
Produces the Science &
WAM & global climate (incl aerosol/chemistry
Aerosol & Radiation
Land surface-atmosphere- ocean feedbacks
Prediction of climate impacts
High impact weather prediction
ST2 incl AOC
AMMA National & Pan
Links with International Programmes (WCRP, IGBP, THORPEX, ..)
Ernest Afiesimama, Abel Afouda, Abou Amani, Anton Beljaars, Bernard Bourles, Arona Diedhiou, Andreas Fink, Amadou Gaye, Jim Haywood, Paul Houser, Peter Lamb, Thierry Lebel, Bob Molinari, Doug Parker, Jan Polcher, Joe Prospero, Claire Reeves, Madeline Thomson
Co-Chairs: Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Chris Thorncroft
ISSC responsible for:
Formulation of well defined scientific objectives and a coherent program, to address the three overarching aims (see International Science Plan)
To coordinate integrative work through the establishment of the 5 international WGs
Co-chairs: Arona Diedhiou (IRD, Niger), Serge Janicot (LOCEAN, France) Peter Lamb (Univ. Oklahoma, US)
This WG is concerned with the 2-way interactions between the West African
Monsoon & the rest of the globe.
Research areas under this theme include:
(i) Variability and predictability of the WAM (nature and role of teleconnections,
intraseasonal variability including easterly waves, predictability issues and the role
of the ocean, detection of global change),
(ii) Monsoon processes (e.g. scale interactions, the seasonal cycle and monsoon onset),
(iii) Global impacts of the WAM (e.g. on tropical cyclones, aerosol variability, atmospheric chemistry).
n.b. includes aerosol-chemistry, modeling strategy evolving
Observed and modeled rainfall (with labels for onset and retreat) for Niamey based on area-average of 50 gauges and model simulated rainfall ( Lebel et al, 2000).
Time series (1941-2001) of average normalized April-October rainfall departure for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E); following methodology of Lamb and Peppler, 1992).
Dominant pattern of precipitation error
associated with dominant pattern of SST prediction error based on persistent SST anomalies (Goddard & Mason ,Climate Dynamics, 2002)
Coupled model systematic error in equatorial SST simulation – note systematic error in east-west gradient in the tropical Atlantic
Co-leaders:Amadou Gaye (Univ. Dakar, Senegal), Paul Houser (George Mason, US) , Jean-Luc Redelsperger (CNRM, France), France)
The efficiency of the processes controlling the advection of atmospheric moisture, its transformation into precipitation, and the behaviour of rain water over land (e.g. run-off, infiltration etc), is a crucial aspect of the WAM.
Analysis & understanding of the water cycle at regional-scale, mesoscale and local scale will be carried out in the WG.
Downscaling issues for impact studies are key.
LING / FORECASTS
Downscaling for impact studies
GG SST Variability
Major River Basins
Water vapor transport
Trace gaz , Aerosols, etc
A multiscale approach
Co-leaders:Jan Polcher (LMD, France); Chris Taylor (CEH, UK)
To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the continental surface & the atmosphere
to bring together the various process studies (land and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional and mesoscale
Koster etal, 2004
Leader:Bernard Bourles et al
To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the ocean surface & the atmosphere
to bring together the various process studies (ocean and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional scales
Co-leaders:Abou Amani (AGHRYMET, Niger), Andy Morse (Univ.
Liverpool, UK), Madeleine Thompson (IRI, US) (IRI, US)
One of the 3 major aims of AMMA:
To provide the underpinning science that relates climate variability to issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining relevant monitoring and prediction strategies.
AMMA will ensure strong linkages between the work taking place on impacts and that taking place on observed variability and predictability of the WAM.
Example: Meningitis epidemics in Mali
Semaine du maximum du cycle saisonnier (hiver)
(Position du FIT la plus basse en latitude)
Prediction Alert Systems
CORE Membership: E. Afiesimama (NIMET), S. Jones (Un. Karlsuhe, Ger), D. Parsons (NCAR, US), F.Rabier (Meteo-France),C. Thorncroft (SUNY, US), Z. Toth (NCEP), US)
To improve our knowledge & understanding of high impact weather over Africa, including its impact on the tropical Atlantic and Europe.
Key timescale of interest is 1-15 days
Can we predict dry/wet spells 15-days in advance?
Do such dry spells influence downstream tropical cyclone activity?
Co-chairs: Thierry Lebel (IRD-Niger) & Doug Parker (Un Leeds UK)
ICIG is responsible for implementation of the AMMA field program
Co-Chairs: Eric Brun (Meteo-France) and Alan Thorpe (NERC)
Membership: G. Amanatidis (EU),J. Boulegue (IRD) , W. Ferrel (DOE), A. Guiteye(Director Operational Dept ASECNA), J. Kaye (NASA), A. Kignaman-Soro (ACMAD/D & Representative PIREM), J. Laver (NOAA-NCEP),A. Ndiaye (WMO), N. Papineau (INSU & CNRS)
To approve the structure and implementation of AMMA particularly with respect to the necessary financial and technical support.
To identify and mobilize national & international resources to support AMMA activities.
The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference
AMMA International has also established a number of support teams for the project. Three of these are concerned with the field program and the data center. The fourth (ST4) is concerned with “Capacity Building and Training”.
There are a number of efforts going forward under the auspices of ST4 that require coordination (coordination is currently weak). This includes some support from IRD (France), a GEF proposal in West Africa, and calls for proposals from DFID (UK). There is an urgent need for stronger coordination of the various activities.
The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference
International AMMA webpages have beendeveloped to aid communication
Unique entrance to all AMMA sites
Collaboration with other international Programmes as:
AMMA is definitively International
More than 500 Researchers from around 30 countries in Africa, Europe & USA Algeria, Belgium, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cap Verde, Chad, Congo, Denmark, France, Germany, Ghana, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco, Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, Togo, UK, US
Regional African Centers
Agencies supporting AMMA
With the participation of
University of Cologne, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfharte, University of Leeds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, University of Copenhagen, MEDIAS-France, University of Burgundy, Université Paris 12 - Val de Marne, Université Paul Sabatier, Centre de coopération Internationale gen Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, University of Bremen, Forschunggszentrum Kalsruhe, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilianns-Universitaet Muenchen, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Univerrsity of East Anglia, University of Liverpool, University of York, University of Leicester, University of Manchester, Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of University of Cambridge, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Enea per Nuove Technologie, l'Energia e l'Ambiente, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche -Institute of Biometeorology , Universita' di Perugia, Universidad de Castilla- La Mancha, Universitad Complutense de Madrid, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Université catholique de Louvain, European Ceeentre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Centre de Reecherche Médicale et Sanitaire, Ecole Inter-Etats d'Ingénieurs de l'Equipement JRural, African Centre of Meteorological Application for development, Vaisala OYJ, Ocean Scientific International Ltd, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Agence pour la Sécurité de la Navigation Aérienne en Afrique et Madagascar, Kalsrhue University, Universite d Abomey-Calavi, Universite de Dakar, Universite de Niamey, Directions de la Meteorologie et de l Hydrologie du Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote dÍvoire, Ghana, Guinee, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo
An AMMA-US proposal was prepared in December 2003 (see AMMA-US website)Due to lack of funding the original AMMA-US proposal could not be funded as one; individual proposals were prepared to address various parts of the program.
Some of these as well as additional proposals have been successful, resulting in a significant US contribution to AMMA field program.
ARM mobile facility (DOE)
Surface obs. – malaria studies (NOAA)
SALEX: NOAA P3 and G-IV
Targeted Missions and Dropsonde flights with G-IV
Targeted Missions with DC-8, + Ground-based obs. (N-Pol + TOGA radars, soundings)
Driftsonde/THORPEX (NCAR/NSF/NOAA + CNES, France)
ZEUS lightning detection network
Surface-based research radars
US-GCOS: Hydrogen generator at Dakar
Ronald H. Brown Cruises + ship-based obs (NOAA), supported by multi-year sustained obs (see next slide)
It is estimated that in terms of field observations alone in 2006, the US is contributing ~$14M!!!!!.
BUT there is a lack of support for analysis of this data!
There are other significant US contributions to AMMA activities including in particular:
NCEP (e.g. forecast support including training via Africa Desk, real-time data impact studies)
Individual PIs (funded through normal routes)
As a result of a recent workshop a structure is being created to coordinate US contributions to AMMA. This structure mirrors as much as possible the international Working Group structure.
We are establishing the following 3 working groups:
WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate: Kerry Cook, Pete Lamb, Bob Molinari
WG2 Water Cycle: Paul Houser
WG3 Surface-atmosphere feedbacks: Fatih Eltahir (land), Erica Key (ocean)
The US also has important contributions to international WG4 (e.g. IRI) and WG5 (e.g. NAMMA, and individual PIs and groups working on prediction and predictability issues including NCEP, NRL, Univ. Miami).