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A frican M onsoon M ultidisciplinary A nalyses A frikanske M onsun : M ultidisiplinære A nalyser A frikaanse M oesson M ultidisciplinaire A nalyse A nalisi M ultidisciplinare per il M onsone A fricano A frikanischer M onsun: M ultidisziplinäre A nalysen

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slide1
African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
  • Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser
  • Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse
  • Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano
  • Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen
  • Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos
  • Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine
slide2
Variability in the West African Monsoon Matters!

Recognising the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will facilitate the multidisciplinary research required to provide improved predictions of the WAM and its impacts.

slide3
Variability in the WAM impacts the US!

Bonnie (05)

Charlie (05)

Frances (05)

Flooding in New Orleans due to Katrina (courtesy NOAA)

Ivan (05)

courtesy A. Aiyyer

slide4
The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

NDVI image for 21-31 August 2000, from Pathfinder AVHRR, highlighting the marked meridional gradients in surface conditions over tropical North Africa and zonal symmetry.

slide5
The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

Key features of the West African Monsoon Climate System during Boreal summer

Heat Low

SAL

AEJ

ITCZ

Cold Tongue

slide6
The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

AEJ

50oC

90oC

θ

θe

θe

θ

20oC

60oC

programmatic aspects
Programmatic aspects
  • During past decades, China and India have benefited immensely from collaboration with the developed nations in weather-climate research (e.g., numerical modeling & field experiments)
  • Africa has yet to benefit to a comparable degree: leverage ongoing activities as a framework?
  • International African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program is such a framework ( West African region)
  • U.S. presence in AMMA mainly: a) DOE-ARM (deployment of a technologically advanced mobile observing system); b) NASA (hurricane genesis measurements downstream in E. Atlantic); IRI (global models)
selected science aspects
Selected science aspects
  • Africa is an integral part of the Earth’s climatesystem but has been little studied, poorly understood compared to other regions of the world
  • Africa is one of Earth’s 3 large-scale heat sources, along with Amazonia and the Indonesian ‘Maritime Continent’
  • Africa’s convective weather systems and precipitation regimes are direly in need of quantification
  • Africa’s monsoon system differs from the Asia-Australia monsoon and from monsoons of the Americas – fundamental in regard to inter-annual issues at the weather-climate interface
slide9
The WAM is an ideal natural laboratory for exploring the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean system

Key weather systems in the West African and Tropical Atlantic regions

An ideal region to study scale interactions in the WAM and tropical cyclogenesis

SAL

AEWs

TC

MCSs

slide10
Introduction

Overview of AMMA-International

US contributions to the AMMA field campaign

AMMA-US

slide11
Germany

IMPETUS

VOLTA

France

CATCH

White Book

AMMA-API

UK

NERC DABEX

DODO

Others in

Europe

INTEO, ...

EU Integrated Project

Pan-african initiative

(PIAF)

ACMAD

USA

ARM-DOE

NOAA

NASA

AGRYMET

ASECNA

CERMES

African Univ

DMN, DHN, , EIER, others ...

1. AMMA International

To reach AMMA aims, need to coordinate

-Science (Challenge: disciplines, scales)

-Implementation (Obs, Model,..)

-Data archive and sharing

-Funding issues

slide12
1. AMMA International
  • To improve our understanding of the WAM and its influence on the
  • physical, chemical & biological environment regionally and globally.

AIMS

(2) To provide the underpinning science that relates variability of the WAM to

issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West

African nations and defining and implementing relevant monitoring &

prediction strategies.

(3)To ensure that the multidisciplinary research carried out in AMMA is

effectively integrated with prediction & decision making activity.

slide13
DecisionMakers

Early Warning Systems, Advice, …

WEATHER & CLIMATE PREDICTION & ITS IMPACTS

Medium Range Seasonal-Interannual Decadal Climate Change

Models & Observations

IMPACTS

Water Resources

Land Surfaces

Ocean

Multi-disciplinary research

Public Health

Monsoon

Dynamics

Food security

Socio-Economy

Aerosols

Chemistry

slide14
ICIG

PO

WG2

WG3

WG5

WG1

WG4

ST4Capacity building & training

IGB

Endorses the Science &

Implementation Plans

Produces the Science &

Implementation Plans

Integrative Science

Obs implementation

ISSC

TT1

Radio soundings

WAM & global climate (incl aerosol/chemistry

TT2a

Surface Layer

TT2b

Aerosol & Radiation

Water cycle

TT3

Gourma site

TT4

Niamey site

Land surface-atmosphere- ocean feedbacks

ST3 Database

ST1 EOP/LOP

TT5

Ouémé site

TT6

Oceaic campaigns

Prediction of climate impacts

TT7

SOP-Dry season

High impact weather prediction

ST2 incl AOC

TT8

SOP-Monsoon season

AMMA National & Pan

Scientific Committees

TT9

SOP-Downstream

ARM

Links with International Programmes (WCRP, IGBP, THORPEX, ..)

slide15
International Scientific Steering Committee

Membership:

Ernest Afiesimama, Abel Afouda, Abou Amani, Anton Beljaars, Bernard Bourles, Arona Diedhiou, Andreas Fink, Amadou Gaye, Jim Haywood, Paul Houser, Peter Lamb, Thierry Lebel, Bob Molinari, Doug Parker, Jan Polcher, Joe Prospero, Claire Reeves, Madeline Thomson

Co-Chairs: Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Chris Thorncroft

ISSC responsible for:

Formulation of well defined scientific objectives and a coherent program, to address the three overarching aims (see International Science Plan)

To coordinate integrative work through the establishment of the 5 international WGs

slide16
WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate

Co-chairs: Arona Diedhiou (IRD, Niger), Serge Janicot (LOCEAN, France) Peter Lamb (Univ. Oklahoma, US)

This WG is concerned with the 2-way interactions between the West African

Monsoon & the rest of the globe.

Research areas under this theme include:

(i) Variability and predictability of the WAM (nature and role of teleconnections,

intraseasonal variability including easterly waves, predictability issues and the role

of the ocean, detection of global change),

(ii) Monsoon processes (e.g. scale interactions, the seasonal cycle and monsoon onset),

(iii) Global impacts of the WAM (e.g. on tropical cyclones, aerosol variability, atmospheric chemistry).

n.b. includes aerosol-chemistry, modeling strategy evolving

slide17
WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate

Observed and modeled rainfall (with labels for onset and retreat) for Niamey based on area-average of 50 gauges and model simulated rainfall ( Lebel et al, 2000).

Time series (1941-2001) of average normalized April-October rainfall departure for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E); following methodology of Lamb and Peppler, 1992).

slide18
WG1: West African Monsoon and Global Climate

Dominant pattern of precipitation error

associated with dominant pattern of SST prediction error based on persistent SST anomalies (Goddard & Mason ,Climate Dynamics, 2002)

Coupled model systematic error in equatorial SST simulation – note systematic error in east-west gradient in the tropical Atlantic

slide19
WG2: Water Cycle

Co-leaders:Amadou Gaye (Univ. Dakar, Senegal), Paul Houser (George Mason, US) , Jean-Luc Redelsperger (CNRM, France), France)

The efficiency of the processes controlling the advection of atmospheric moisture, its transformation into precipitation, and the behaviour of rain water over land (e.g. run-off, infiltration etc), is a crucial aspect of the WAM.

Analysis & understanding of the water cycle at regional-scale, mesoscale and local scale will be carried out in the WG.

Downscaling issues for impact studies are key.

slide20
MODEL

LING / FORECASTS

Downscaling for impact studies

Global SST

Teleconnections

SATELLITE

S

Monsoon System

GG SST Variability

OBSERVATIONS

Easterly waves

Major River Basins

Mesoscale

Convective

Systems

Catchments

Vegetation

Scale Interactions

Convective

Cells

Pools

Water vapor transport

Vegetation

Trace gaz , Aerosols, etc

EOP

SOP

LOP

A multiscale approach

Global

10

km

4

Regional

10

km

3

Mesoscale

10

km

2

Local

10

km

1

Hour

Day

Season

Year

slide21
WG3a: Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks

Co-leaders:Jan Polcher (LMD, France); Chris Taylor (CEH, UK)

To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the continental surface & the atmosphere

 to bring together the various process studies (land and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional and mesoscale

slide23
WG3b: Ocean-surface-atmosphere feedbacks

Leader:Bernard Bourles et al

To provide increased knowledge & understanding of the feedbacks between the ocean surface & the atmosphere

 to bring together the various process studies (ocean and atmosphere) in order to better understand the coupling at regional scales

slide24
WG4: Prediction of climate impacts

Co-leaders:Abou Amani (AGHRYMET, Niger), Andy Morse (Univ.

Liverpool, UK), Madeleine Thompson (IRI, US) (IRI, US)

One of the 3 major aims of AMMA:

To provide the underpinning science that relates climate variability to issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining relevant monitoring and prediction strategies.

AMMA will ensure strong linkages between the work taking place on impacts and that taking place on observed variability and predictability of the WAM.

slide25
WG4: Prediction of climate impacts

Example: Meningitis epidemics in Mali

Semaine de

démarrage

de l’épidémie

January

Semaine du maximum du cycle saisonnier (hiver)

(Position du FIT la plus basse en latitude)

Prediction  Alert Systems

slide26
WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability

CORE Membership: E. Afiesimama (NIMET), S. Jones (Un. Karlsuhe, Ger), D. Parsons (NCAR, US), F.Rabier (Meteo-France),C. Thorncroft (SUNY, US), Z. Toth (NCEP), US)

To improve our knowledge & understanding of high impact weather over Africa, including its impact on the tropical Atlantic and Europe.

Key timescale of interest is 1-15 days

Can we predict dry/wet spells 15-days in advance?

Do such dry spells influence downstream tropical cyclone activity?

slide27
WG5: High impact weather prediction and predictability
  • Major Ongoing Activities:
      • Tailoring and evaluation of forecast products for users in tropical regions
  • e.g. dry run 22nd August – 2nd September 2005; SOP 2006
      • Impact of additional observations
      • ECMWF, Meteo-France, NCEP, NRL, UK Met Office and others
      • Targeting in tropical regions
        • e.g. especially associated with driftsonde
slide28
International Coordination & Implementation Group

Co-chairs: Thierry Lebel (IRD-Niger) & Doug Parker (Un Leeds UK)

ICIG is responsible for implementation of the AMMA field program

10 years of observation and research
10

4

10

3

10

2

10

1

10 years of observation and research

WA +

Ocean

Long term Observations (LOP)

Regional

Enhanced Period

(EOP)

E

0

0

S O P

10

3

Meso

WET

DRY

Local

2006 2007 2008

2002

2005

SOP0_a3 ?

eop maps
From the continental to the local scale

Tamanrasset

Tamanrasset

Sal

Khartoum

EOP Maps

Niamey

AMMA …

Ron Brown Cruises and Meteor

EGEE Cruises

slide32
International Governing Board (IGB)

Co-Chairs: Eric Brun (Meteo-France) and Alan Thorpe (NERC)

Membership: G. Amanatidis (EU),J. Boulegue (IRD) , W. Ferrel (DOE), A. Guiteye(Director Operational Dept ASECNA), J. Kaye (NASA), A. Kignaman-Soro (ACMAD/D & Representative PIREM), J. Laver (NOAA-NCEP),A. Ndiaye (WMO), N. Papineau (INSU & CNRS)

To approve the structure and implementation of AMMA particularly with respect to the necessary financial and technical support.

To identify and mobilize national & international resources to support AMMA activities.

The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference

slide33
Support Teams

AMMA International has also established a number of support teams for the project. Three of these are concerned with the field program and the data center. The fourth (ST4) is concerned with “Capacity Building and Training”.

There are a number of efforts going forward under the auspices of ST4 that require coordination (coordination is currently weak). This includes some support from IRD (France), a GEF proposal in West Africa, and calls for proposals from DFID (UK). There is an urgent need for stronger coordination of the various activities.

The first meeting took place on December 20 via video-conference

slide34
International AMMA Webpages

International AMMA webpages have beendeveloped to aid communication

http://www.amma-international.org

Unique entrance to all AMMA sites

slide35
Endorsed by Major International Programmes

Collaboration with other international Programmes as:

WMO

AMMA is definitively International

More than 500 Researchers from around 30 countries in Africa, Europe & USA Algeria, Belgium, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cap Verde, Chad, Congo, Denmark, France, Germany, Ghana, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco, Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, Togo, UK, US

slide36
Founding Agencies

Regional African Centers

Agencies supporting AMMA

With the participation of

University of Cologne, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfharte, University of Leeds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, University of Copenhagen, MEDIAS-France, University of Burgundy, Université Paris 12 - Val de Marne, Université Paul Sabatier, Centre de coopération Internationale gen Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, University of Bremen, Forschunggszentrum Kalsruhe, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilianns-Universitaet Muenchen, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Univerrsity of East Anglia, University of Liverpool, University of York, University of Leicester, University of Manchester, Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of University of Cambridge, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Enea per Nuove Technologie, l'Energia e l'Ambiente, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche -Institute of Biometeorology , Universita' di Perugia, Universidad de Castilla- La Mancha, Universitad Complutense de Madrid, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Université catholique de Louvain, European Ceeentre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Centre de Reecherche Médicale et Sanitaire, Ecole Inter-Etats d'Ingénieurs de l'Equipement JRural, African Centre of Meteorological Application for development, Vaisala OYJ, Ocean Scientific International Ltd, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Agence pour la Sécurité de la Navigation Aérienne en Afrique et Madagascar, Kalsrhue University, Universite d Abomey-Calavi, Universite de Dakar, Universite de Niamey, Directions de la Meteorologie et de l Hydrologie du Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote dÍvoire, Ghana, Guinee, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo

slide37
AMMA-US: Background

An AMMA-US proposal was prepared in December 2003 (see AMMA-US website)Due to lack of funding the original AMMA-US proposal could not be funded as one; individual proposals were prepared to address various parts of the program.

Some of these as well as additional proposals have been successful, resulting in a significant US contribution to AMMA field program.

slide38
US contributions to AMMA field program in 06

ARM mobile facility (DOE)

MIT-radar (NASA)

Surface obs. – malaria studies (NOAA)

SALEX: NOAA P3 and G-IV

Targeted Missions and Dropsonde flights with G-IV

NASA-AMMA

Targeted Missions with DC-8, + Ground-based obs. (N-Pol + TOGA radars, soundings)

Driftsonde/THORPEX (NCAR/NSF/NOAA + CNES, France)

ZEUS lightning detection network

Surface-based research radars

US-GCOS: Hydrogen generator at Dakar

Ronald H. Brown Cruises + ship-based obs (NOAA), supported by multi-year sustained obs (see next slide)

Climate Transect

slide40
AMMA-US: Rationale and aims of workshop

It is estimated that in terms of field observations alone in 2006, the US is contributing ~$14M!!!!!.

BUT there is a lack of support for analysis of this data!

There are other significant US contributions to AMMA activities including in particular:

NCEP (e.g. forecast support including training via Africa Desk, real-time data impact studies)

GLOBE

Individual PIs (funded through normal routes)

slide41
AMMA-US: Coordination

As a result of a recent workshop a structure is being created to coordinate US contributions to AMMA. This structure mirrors as much as possible the international Working Group structure.

We are establishing the following 3 working groups:

WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate: Kerry Cook, Pete Lamb, Bob Molinari

WG2 Water Cycle: Paul Houser

WG3 Surface-atmosphere feedbacks: Fatih Eltahir (land), Erica Key (ocean)

The US also has important contributions to international WG4 (e.g. IRI) and WG5 (e.g. NAMMA, and individual PIs and groups working on prediction and predictability issues including NCEP, NRL, Univ. Miami).

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