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MONITORIZAMOS

MONITORIZAMOS. O TEMPO. O CLIMA. A ACTIVIDADE SÍSMICA. CONTRIBUÍMOS. PARA UM MUNDO MAIS SEGURO e UM DESENVOLVIMENTO SUSTENTÁVEL. National Strategy for Weather Monitoring and Forecast Vanda Costa. Outline. Global forecasts quality and horizontal resolution

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MONITORIZAMOS

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  1. MONITORIZAMOS O TEMPO O CLIMA A ACTIVIDADE SÍSMICA CONTRIBUÍMOS PARA UM MUNDO MAIS SEGURO e UM DESENVOLVIMENTO SUSTENTÁVEL National Strategy for Weather Monitoring and ForecastVanda Costa

  2. Outline • Global forecasts quality and horizontal resolution • Status and recent evolution of Limited Area Models at Instituto de Meteorologia (IM) • Verification • A case study: Madeira, 20th February 2010 • Conclusions and future development

  3. Evolution of global forecasts quality Perfect Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Threshold Day 8 No skill 2008 2001 1995 1985 1981 • 8 daysforecastin 2008 was as good as:7 daysforecastin 2001 6 daysforecastin 1995 5 daysforecastin 1985 4 daysforecastin 1981 • Thequalityofglobal forecastsisstillimproving Skill Score (SS) Measures the quality of the forecast relative to a reference forecast (climatology or persistence) (0 – No improvement over the reference, 1 – perfect score, 0.60 – forecast skill threshold) Courtesy of Pedro Viterbo

  4. ECMWF: horizontal resolution 16 km 25 km 1984 1994 1996 1998 1986 1988 2004 2006 2008 2010 1980 1982 1990 1992 2000 2002 62 km 39 km 25 km 16 km 208 km 125 km • Increase of quality of global forecasts goes hand in hand with increase in horizontal resolution • National Meteorological Services need further spatial detail in their Limited Area Models Courtesy of Nuno Lopes

  5. Outline • Global forecasts quality and horizontal resolution • Status and recent evolution of Limited Area Models at Instituto de Meteorologia (IM) • Verification • A case study: Madeira, 20th February 2010 • Conclusions • Future development

  6. Operational models used at IM, I.P. REMOTE LOCAL

  7. NWP system at IM: ALADIN model • Limitedareaversionofthe global model ARPEGE/IFS, developedwithin ALADIN International Project, a consortiumof 16 countriesfromEuropeandNorthernAfrica 2000 – 12,7 km • Operationalmodesince 2000 • DomainoverIberianPeninsula • Horizontal resolutionof 12,7 km • DEC Alpha XP1000 platform 2008 – 9 km • Major changesin 2008 • Extensionofthedomain to Atlantic (Azoresand Madeira islands) • Increaseof horizontal resolution to 9 km • IBM p5-575 platform Courtesy of Manuel Lopes

  8. NWP system at IM: AROME model • AROME- Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale • - Adaptation of ALADIN model to resolutions higher than 3 km • - Dynamic core from a non-hydrostatic version of ALADIN • - Physics from Meso-NH model (French research model) • First tests for Portugal mainland and Madeira domains, with resolution of 2,5 km, done locally in 2009 • Since January 2010 AROME is running locally, twice a day (00 and 12 UTC runs), for the domains: • Portugal mainland • Madeira archipelago • First report of objective verification in Autumn 2010

  9. Outline • Global forecasts quality and horizontal resolution • Status and recent evolution of Limited Area Models at Instituto de Meteorologia (IM) • Verification • A case study: Madeira, 20th February 2010 • Conclusions and future development

  10. Models verification 6,66 • Objective model verification is done at IM on a regular basis • Seasonal verifications reports of operationals models (available at IM, on request) • Annual report on “Application and verification of ECMWF products” sent to ECMWF (available at IM, on request) • Before operational implementation of new ALADIN cycles • Verified weather parameters • Mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, humidity, wind intensity and cloud cover • Continuous statistics - Root Mean Square error and bias • Precipitation and gusts • Categorical statistics - Heidke Skill Score, Equitable Threat Score, Bias, etc • Statistic scores computed for a sample of 48 Portugal mainland synoptic weather stations • Subjective verification • Cases studies • Forecasters and developers

  11. Model verification: temperature & humidity Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) Measures the average magnitude of the errors, with higher weight on the largest errors • Similar quality forecasts • Differences of RMS up to 0,5 C • Smaller RMS in winter • ECMWF forecasts slightly better in winter • ALADIN forecasts slightly better in summer RMS (C) 2008 2009 2010 • ECMWF humidity forecasts better than ALADIN • Differences of RMS up to 10% RMS (%) 2008 2009 2010

  12. Models verification: wind speed ALADIN windspeedforecasts are better

  13. Outline • Global forecasts quality and horizontal resolution • Status and recent evolution of Limited Area Models at Instituto de Meteorologia (IM) • Verification • A case study: Madeira, 20th February 2010 • Conclusions and future development

  14. Madeira flash flood: synoptic situation 20 th February 2010 - extreme flash flood event in the Portuguese island of Madeira ECMWF analysis: Wet-bulb potential temperature at 850 hPa & mean sea level pressure (hPa) 20100220 / 12 UTC Meteosat 9: RGB air mass at 06 UTC Maritime tropical air mass, with high tick clouds Courtesy of João Rio and Nuno Moreira

  15. Madeira flash flood: synoptic situation ECMWF analysis: Total precipitable water (mm) 20100220 / 12 UTC ECMWF analysis: Jefferson stability index (C) 20100220 / 12 UTC Very moist and unstable air mass Courtesy of João Rio and Nuno Moreira

  16. Madeira flash flood: observations 9-hour accumulatedprecipitation 06 -15 UTC P. Areeiro (1510 m) Funchal (56 m) Courtesy of João Rio

  17. Madeira flash flood: ECMWF forecast SHORT RANGE ECMWF forecast: Total precipitation (mm) 06 -15 UTC Run: 2010021900 Step: H+39 Valid: 2010022015 ECMWF forecast: Total precipitation (mm) 06 -15 UTC Run: 2010021912 Step: H+27 Valid: 2010022015 • Maximum amounts around 30/40 mm for the 9-hour period • Short range forecast enhanced precipitation over Madeira • Synoptic flow well forecasted 5 days in advance • Precipitations amounts underestimated considerably observations Courtesy of João Rio

  18. Madeira flash flood: ALADIN forecast ALADIN forecast: Total precipitation (mm) 06 -15 UTC Run: 2010021900 Step: H+39 Valid: 2010022015 ALADIN forecast: Total precipitation (mm) 06 -15 UTC Run: 2010021912 Step: H+27 Valid: 2010022015 • Maximum amounts of precipitation around 70 mm for the 9-hour period • Consistent forecasts between 00 and 12 UTC runs Courtesy of João Rio

  19. Madeira flash flood: AROME forecast AROME forecast: Total precipitation (mm) 06 -15 UTC Run: 2010021912 Step: H+27 Valid: 2010022015 • Maximum amounts of precipitation around 180 mm for the 9-hour period • Orographic effect clearly seen on the precipitation field Courtesy of João Rio

  20. Outline • Global forecasts quality and horizontal resolution • Status and recent evolution of Limited Area Models at Instituto de Meteorologia (IM) • Verification • A case study: Madeira, 20th February 2010 • Conclusions and future development

  21. Conclusions • Sustained increase in skill of global forecasts • gain of 1 day every 7 years • Increase in computer power allowed National Meteorological Services to run Limited Area Models (LAM) • There are 4 model consortia in Europe (ALADIN, HIRLAM, COSMO and UKMO) • IM belongs to ALADIN, running a suite of LAM: • 9 km ALADIN • 2,5 km AROME • 50-member ensemble of 12 km ALADIN • Verification is an essential tool of a Numerical Weather Prediction system • To inform forecasters on a-priori forecasts quality • To inform model developers on model errors • Case study: Madeira, 20th February 2010 • Modelling systems available at IM performed reasonably • ECMWF: (a) Synoptic evolution well predicted 5 days ahead, (b) Intense precipitation (~25 mm), but far from the observed severity (123 mm and 344 mm) • ALADIN (9 km): Good prediction of location and timing of severe precipitation (~70 mm), but still smaller than observations • AROME (2.5 km): Consistent very intense precipitation (150 mm), still smaller than observations

  22. Future development • Consolidate the high resolution model AROME • Extensive validation • Covering Azores islands • Fully explore ensemble results • FCT project BRIEF (Building Regional Ensemble Forecasts), 2010-2011 • A partnership of IM and Universities: • Instituto de Meteorologia (Leader) • Instituto Dom Luiz/Universidade de Lisboa • Universidade de Évora • Universidade de Aveiro • Universidade da Beira Interior • Systematically address extreme events: Evaluate Hit Rates and False Alarm Rates • Further integration of Numerical Weather Prediction products and nowcasting tools (Images and products from remote sensing and radar)

  23. MONITORIZAMOS O TEMPO O CLIMA A ACTIVIDADE SÍSMICA CONTRIBUÍMOS PARA UM MUNDO MAIS SEGURO e UM DESENVOLVIMENTO SUSTENTÁVEL Thank you for your attention

  24. LAM - EPS • ALADIN isforcedbythe 50 ECMWF EPS members • 50-member ensembleof ALADIN forecasts Courtesy of João Ferreira

  25. Models verification: precipitation Spring 2010 ALADIN ECMWF Categoricalverification HeidkeSkillScore (HSS) Fractionofcorrectforecastsaftereliminatingthoseforecastswhichwouldbepurelycorrectdue to randomchance (0 – no skill; 1 – perfectscore) HSS Forecast range (h) • Slightly better skill for ECMWF precipitation forecasts than to ALADIN forecasts • Due to better defined mesoscales structures, greater amplitudes and larger gradients in the high resolutions models • objectives scores can be worse when compared to lower resolution models – Double Penalty problem • New verifications techniques are needed to allow for some tolerance to reasonable small space and time errors – Fuzzy Methodsis one of such techniques, currently under test at IM

  26. LAM - EPS • 50-member ensemble are calibrated • Model corrected = model forecast – model bias • Model bias = Model climatology – observations climatology • Model climatology obtained averaging 360 members of the LAM-EPS • Every Thursday, LAM-EPS is forced by the 4 members of ECMWF ensemble forecast hindcast system, for the last 18 years • Model climatology can be obtained averaging the 72 members (4 x 18) • However, using a 5 week moving window, the model climatology can be obtained averaging 360 members (72 x 5) • Observations climatology obtained averaging, for the same 5 week period, 18 x 5 = 90 members Courtesy of João Ferreira

  27. Operational NWP Systems in Europe "EUMETNET-SRNWP Overview of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Systems in Europe" ALADIN and HIRLAM consortia are joinning efforts in order to assure a joint action on short-range NWP in Europe - 25 countries !

  28. NWP system at IM: physical resources • IBM cluster • Where regional and high resolution models are run in operational and test / validation modes • 10 nodes HPC p5-575 • each node has 8 CPU's Dual-Core POWER5+ • 1,9 GHz and 32 GB RAM of memory • 2 TB disk space on each node • AIX 5.3 operating system • DELL cluster • controls automatically the NWP operational system: arrival, post-processing and arquiving of NWP information • 10 nodes DELL PowerEdge 2950 • each node has 2 CPU's Quad-CoreIntel Xeon 5355 • 2,66 GHz and 4x2 GB RAM of memory • 8 TB disk space on each node • Linux / PAIPIX-IM operating system

  29. NWP system at IM: ALADIN model • Model characteristics • Spectral hydrostatic version • Hybrid vertical coordinates • Digital filter initialisation • Semi-implicit semi-lagrangian two-time-level advection scheme • ISBA surface parametrisation scheme • Initial and LBC conditions from Météo-France global model (ARPEGE) • 3 hour coupling frequency • Integration domain • Number of gridpoints: 439 x 277 • Number of vertical levels: 46 • Horizontal resolution: 9 km • Time step: 360s • Integration frequency: twice a day (00 UTC and 12 UTC) • Forecast range: + 48 h • Post-processing frequency: 1 hour • Operational characteristics • 4 nodes on IBM p5-575 • 32 Dual-Core processors • 64 tasks with Open-Multi-Processing (OMP) and Simultaneous Multi-Threading activated (SMT) • Integration time: 14 min • Forecast process (integration + post-processing + graphical products): 1h15m • Forecasts availability: • 00 UTC run – 06:00 UTC • 12 UTC run – 17:45 UTC

  30. NWP system at IM: AROME model • Model characteristics • Spectral non-hydrostatic model • Semi-lagrangian advection scheme • Two-time-level semi-implicit time scheme • Dynamic core from the NH of ALADIN and physics from Meso-NH • Initial surface, upper-air and LBC from ALADIN-Portugal forecasts • 3 hour coupling frequency • 2 Integration domains • Number of gridpoints: 239 x 349 (Portugal mainland, PTG) and 181 x 189 (Madeira, MAD) • Number of vertical levels: 46 • Horizontal resolution: 2,5 km • Time step: 60s • Integration frequency: twice a day (00 UTC and 12 UTC) • Forecast range: + 30 h • Post-processing frequency: 1 hour • Operational characteristics • 5 / 3 nodes on IBM p5-575 (PTG / MAD) • 80 / 48 processors (PTG / MAD) • 80 / 48 tasks with OMP and SMT (PTG / MAD) • Integration time: 53 min / 41 min (PTG / MAD) • Forecast process (integration + post-processing + graphical products): 2h15m / 1h (PTG / MAD) • Forecasts availability: • 00 UTC run – 08:10 / 06:20 UTC (PTG / MAD) • 12 UTC run – 19:40 / 18:15 UTC (PTG / MAD)

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