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Shorenstein APARC Seminar, January 19, 2011 PowerPoint Presentation
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Shorenstein APARC Seminar, January 19, 2011

Shorenstein APARC Seminar, January 19, 2011

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Shorenstein APARC Seminar, January 19, 2011

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  1. Declining Fertility and Investment in Children: The Quantity and Quality Trade-off in Japan and East AsiaNaohiro Ogawa Nihon University Population Research Institute Shorenstein APARC Seminar, January 19, 2011

  2. World Population 1 In 1 9 0 0 , 2 0 0 0 . 6 billion

  3. 20th Century: Century of Population Explosion ↓ 21st Century: Century ofPopulation Aging

  4. Declining Fertility The most important demographic source of population aging at an early stage

  5. 2008 Men Women Number of births by sex in Japan, 1908-2008 (10 thousand persons) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 1908 1918 1928

  6. 300 250 200 10,000 births 150 100 50 0 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 Year Annual number of births in postwar Japan

  7. Births 5 4.5 4 3.5 Is it too late? 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 The Japanese Government was aware of it! 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 Year Ideal number of children TFR Total fertility rate (TFR) and ideal family size, Japan, 1947-2009 Not many people know it!

  8. Trends in period parity progression ratios (PPPRs), Japanese women, 1950-2005 B to M M to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 4+ to 5+ 3 to 4

  9. Trends in the percentage of women who had an arranged marriage and the courting period before marriage by year of marriage: Japan, 1955-1996

  10. Proportion of first births conceived before marriages 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 Year of marriage

  11. 70 60 50 40 Percent 30 20 10 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year of marriage Figure 12. Trend in the proportion of newly married couples who coresided with parents at the time of marriage: 1955-2002 Note: Computed from pooled data from various rounds of the National Survey on Family Planning and the 2004 National Survey of Population, Families, and Generations.

  12. If today’s marriage market remains unchanged, 30% men will remain unmarried…

  13. 12 million “parasite single” persons (below 35) Since the early 1990s, the proportion of single women who are not dating has been stable around 45%

  14. Young men taking notes during the lecture on love-related matters at one of the open colleges in Tokyo

  15. PRESIDENT 20060814号 花婿学校 模擬デート

  16. Parents desperately looking for their kids’ prospective mates 結婚相談所オフィス・アン主催の親が集まって子どもの見合い相手を探す交流会。(写真:札幌市開催の親の代理の見合いパーティー 。オフィス・アン代表者が挨拶をしているところで、親たちはその後子どものプロフィールを交換し合った。) これまでに全国13都市で57回開催し、延べ約6500人が参加した。参加費は札幌市(5000円)を除き、1万円。 毎日新聞 夕刊 2008年7月16日(水)特集ワイド「親の結婚活動(婚活) 一生の大事任せなさい!?」

  17. 奈良県主催、世界遺産薬師寺で「写経合コン」奈良県主催、世界遺産薬師寺で「写経合コン」 2006年11月8日、「なら出会いセンター」は世界遺産の薬師寺での写経をしながらの合コンを実施した。 参加者は僧侶による結婚をテーマにした法話を聞いた後、良縁成就祈願の写経を体験。写経の後、1対1のトークタイムが設けられた。 定員男女各20名のところ150を超える応募があった。本合コンでは10組以上のカップルが誕生した。 奈良県の2005年の出生率は東京(0.98)に次いで全国ワースト2位(1.12)。同県は2005年4月、「なら出会いセンター」を開設。同年7月から地元のホテルやレストランなどと協力して出会いイベントを始めた。最初の1年間で誕生したカップルはわずか6組と振るわず、2年目の取り組みとして、平城京跡のボランティア清掃と出会いイベントを組み合わせたところ、問い合わせが殺到し、応募者は定員の5倍強に当たる210人に達した。 Nikkei Net Kansai「自治体、出会いお膳立て—関西女性高い未婚率」 (http://www.nikkei.co.jp/kansai/news/news003661.html) (2008/06/14アクセス) R25「ライフいま、奈良で話題の“写経合コン”をマネしたら・・・」(http://r25.jp/magazine/ranking_review/10008000/1112006111615.html)(2008/06/14アクセス) 少子化対策、奈良県が奇策 世界遺産・薬師寺で「合コン」 (2006/10/13)産経新聞 大阪 夕刊。(日経テレコン) 奈良日日新聞(2006/11/19) ( http://www.naranichi.co.jp/20061119cy23.html) (2008/06/14アクセス)

  18. The Government’s “hard-to-believe” campaign

  19. “Women have a thing for men who own JGBs!!...Right?”

  20. 1973–2009 (baby bust)●TFR gradually falls from 2.14 to 1.37●Although a substantial part of the decline in the TFR has been due to later marriage and less marriage, marital fertility has been playing a considerably important role, too. Thus, the government has been making a series of strenuous efforts to boost marital fertility.

  21. 2.14 1972 Establishment of child allowances (initially no pronatalist intent) 1.54 1990 Establishment of inter-ministry committee for “Creating a sound environment for bearing and rearing children” 1.53 1991 Enactment of Childcare Leave Act 1.5 1994 Announcement of Angel Plan for 1995-99 1.42 1995 Enactment of Childcare and Family Care Leave Act 1.34 1999 Announcement of New Angel Plan for 2000-04 1.33 2001 Amendment to the Employment Insurance Law, specifying 40 percent of salary to be paid to regular full-time employees during childcare leave 1.32 2002 Announcement of “plus one” plan 1.29 2003 Enactment of “next generation” law 2003 Enactment of law on “Basic Measures to Cope with a Declining Fertility Society” 1.29 2004 Announcement of New Angel Plan for 2005-09 1.29 2004 Revision of Childcare and Family Care Leave Act Major Japanese government measures aimed at raising fertility

  22. Net result of fertility-raising measures so far • Fertility has continued to decline • TFR was 1.26 in 2005, and 1.37 in 2009 • TFR for 1989 was 1.57 (which was a base for newly coined term “1.57 shock”) • But it probably would have declined even more without these measures

  23. Number of children Number of cats and dogs Number of pets and children, 1994-2008, Japan (in millions) 30 25 20 15 10 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: Statistics Bureau of Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, and Pet Food Manufacturers Association of Japan (various years) “Survey on the Percentage of Households Keeping Dogs and Cats” http://www.jppfma.org/shiryo/shiryo-set.html.

  24. How about fertility trends in other Asian countries?

  25. Cultural Divide in Fertility Group 1: TFR above 1.5—Nordic countries, all the English-speaking countries, and the French and Dutch speaking countries in Western Europe Group 2: TFR below 1.5—Southern European countries, all German-speaking countries of Western Europe and industrialized East Asian countries (presently lowest in the entire world)

  26. Change in the total fertility rate over time, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (人) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 年次 Japan Korea Taiwan Source日本:厚生労働省(2010)「平成21年人口動態統計」。台湾:Department of Statistics, Ministry of Interior “Statistics Yearbook of Interior” and Council for Economic Planning and Development “Population Projections for R.O.C (Taiwan): 2010-2060, Annex.”韓国:Statistics Korea, various years, “Birth and Death Statistics,” and “Birth Statistics” & Jun (2005) “The transition to sub-replacement fertility in South Korea: implications and prospects for population policy. The Japanese Journal of Population, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp.26-57.

  27. Figure 1. Proportion of the population with below replacement-level fertility in Asia’s total population (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Year Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, New York, 2009 (advanced Excel tables).

  28. Declining Mortality Increasingly important demographic source of population aging at a later stage, particularly when e0 exceeds 70 years

  29. Changes in life expectancy for entire Asia, 1950-2050 (Years) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950-1955 1960-1965 1970-1975 1980-1985 1990-1995 2000-2005 2010-2015 2020-2025 2030-2035 2040-2045 Source: United Nations, 2007, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

  30. Figure 2. Total dependency ratio for Asia as a whole, 1950-2050 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Total (0-14)+(65+)/(15-64) 0.5 0.4 Young (0-14)/(15-64) 0.3 0.2 Old (65+)/(15-64) 0.1 Oldest old (85+)/(15-64) 0.0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Source: United Nations, 2007, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

  31. An innovative approach to analyzing some of the aging-related problems: National Transfer Accounts (NTA)

  32. Basic Features of the National Transfer Account (NTA) Project ●union of macro-level (public) and micro-level (familial) data ●interplay among various age groups (age-specific) ●consistent with the System of National Income

  33. The NTA system will provide important new information relevant to the following issues:①Analysis of the two demographic dividends ②Intergenerational Equity and Poverty ③Aging Policy ④Childbearing Incentives.

  34. The Economic Lifecycle Japan’s Most Important Graph Labor Income Consumption Private consumption

  35. Composition of total consumption for Japan in 2004

  36. Source: Tung forthcoming.

  37. Unlike Taiwan and other Third World, in US cons rises strongly with age. True in other industrial too. Components of US Consumption, 2003 Later I will measure HK investment As sum of pub and priv spending on hlth and educ as shown here.

  38. 44

  39. (Million yen) 5 Labor income 4 (Million yen) 5 Labor income 4 3 Consumption (Public and private) Consumption (public and private) 3 2 1 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age Japan’s Most Important Graph(Per-capita lifecycle)

  40. Age profile of per capita lifecycle deficit, Japan: 2004 (Million yen) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ -1 -2 -3 Age Age specific profile of per capita consumption and labor income (Million yen) 5 4 Surplus 3 Deficit 2 Deficit 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age

  41. Total Reallocations:Lifecycle Deficits Public & Familial Transfers Asset Reallocations Asset Reallocations

  42. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 Changing pattern of three components of per capita reallocation of lifecycle deficits in Japan 1984 Million yen (real prices in 2000) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age Asset-based reallocations Public transfers Private transfers Lifecycle deficit

  43. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 Changing pattern of three components of per capita reallocation of lifecycle deficits in Japan 1989 Million yen (real prices in 2000) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age Asset-based reallocations Public transfers Private transfers Lifecycle deficit

  44. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 Changing pattern of three components of per capita reallocation of lifecycle deficits in Japan 1994 Million yen (real prices in 2000) 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age Asset-based reallocations Public transfers Private transfers Lifecycle deficit