Evolution of M&E from TDA/SAP to Current Country Strategies: A Science and Policy Perspective

1. Evolution of M&E from TDA/SAP to Current Country Strategies: A Science and Policy Perspective Laurence Mee

2. The challenge is how to determine whether or not our actions will bring about sustainable improvements in the state of the environment … and how cost-effective they are.

3. Contents of this talk • Delivering the ecosystem approach: adaptive management and the TDA/SAP process • Scientific challenges and uncertainties for nutrient reduction • From outputs to outcomes, how do we measure success?

4. 1. Delivering the ecosystem approach: adaptive management and the TDA/SAP process

5. The ecosystem approach (a.k.a. Ecosystem Based Management) The comprehensive integrated management of human activities based on best available scientific knowledge about the ecosystem and its dynamics, in order to take action on influences which are critical to the health of marine ecosystems, thereby achieving sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services and maintenance of ecosystem integrity [EU-Marine Strategy, 2005]

6. Key social and ecological system properties • Boundaries (defined in space and time – may be variable) • Complexity, non-linearity and uncertainty • Resilience (the amount of change that a system can undergo and still retain the same controls on function and structure, its capability for self organisation and its capacity for learning and adaptation) • Discontinuities and thresholds • Interconnectedness

7. Eco/WR QOs (Typically valid for 1 decade) Adaptive Management

8. A Systems Approach

9. The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) • Is recommendedfor most OP8 and OP9 projects • Is a scientific and technical fact-finding analysis • It should be an objective assessment and not a negotiated document • It acts as a diagnostic tool for measuring the effectiveness of SAP implementation

10. Strategic Action Programme (SAP) • A SAP is a negotiatedpolicy document • It establishes clear priorities for action to resolve the priority transboundary waters problems • It identifies policy, legal and institutional reforms and investments needed to address the priority transboundary waters problems • The preparation of a SAP is a cooperative process among key stakeholders in the countries of the region.

11. How long to achieve environmental outcomes?

12. 2. Scientific challenges and uncertainties for nutrient reduction

13. Nutrients are transferred by complex processes Nitrogen pathways, Wade et al., 2002

14. Runoff depends on multiple factors including: • Fixed: • Morphology • Soil type • Aquifer hydrology • River length and flow • Variable: (unmanageable) • Rainfall • Variable (manageable) • Fertiliser application rate • Crop (and/or grazing) type • Farm management • Waste disposal • River and wetland alterations • Non-agricultural sources • Urbanisation Forsman et al., 2003

15. Several alternative models for nutrient transfer Garnier et al., 2002 e.g. RIVER STRAHLER, Billen & Garnier, 2000

16. Processes and nutrient budgets on the Black Sea shelf

17. Strength and diversity of trophic linkages related to ‘value’ and ‘status

18. Consequences to the Black Sea

19. System indicators Benthic mass mortality Pelagic/demersal fish catch Benthic hypoxia Trophic Transfer efficiency Fodder/non-fodder zooplankton Diatoms/non-diatoms Chlorophyll (satellite) Ratio of new/regenerated nutrients Winter nutrient stock Land-based discharge loads Complexity * * *** **** *** **** ** ***** **** *** Application of indicators: Eutrophication Specificity ***** *** ***** ** **** *** ***** **** ** ** Major change Trophic effects Pressures

20. Our ability to measure success depends on being able to measure change Eelgrass Pristine (P) and Contemporary (C) Phosphate levels Zoobenthos Source: ELME 2005

21. Huge uncertainties in historical nutrient data in the Danube-Black Sea

22. 3. From outputs to outcomes, how do we measure success?

23. Outcomes of economic collapse in the Danube - Black Sea

24. Shading of Zernov’s Phyllophora field 1979 2002

25. Decreasing mussel mortality = recovery Data from Shurova (unpublished)

26. Areas where change influencing eutrophication will be expected

27. Specific targets for eutrophication Memorandum of Understanding between the International Commission for the Protection of the Black Sea (ICPBS) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) on common strategic goals. Signed in Brussels, 26 November 2001.

28. Environmental Quality as a concept reflects human values Target values related to freshwater quality that meets with the definition under class I (sustaining the ecological function) of UN/ECE

29. Peoples values matter… Source of data: World Survey of Values, 2006

30. Eco/WR QOs (Typically valid for 1 decade) The Achilles Heel of Adaptive Management

31. How do we know when we reach institutional sustainability?

32. Two tests for project success 1. The regular and fully transparent provision of relevant, quality assured, monitoring data Institutional sustainability Commitment gap Data gap

33. Reasons given for not implementing monitoring • Legitimate (GEF can help with foundational support) • Lack of planning and networking • Insufficient training • Inadequate capital equipment • Non-legitimate • Institutional fragmentation • Information = Power (?) • Long term commitment to monitoring is politically unattractive • Disputed data property rights • Culture of secrecy

34. Test 2. How much reduction of nutrients can be achieved per unit cost? • Complex issue requiring trade-offs and genuine international cooperation. • Best practice solutions may not be replicable from country to country. • Achieving sustainability is not the same as dividing investment financing equallybetween countries