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Energy Alternatives

This report evaluates the economic viability of combined hydro and diesel energy systems over a 24-year forecast period from 2012 to 2036. It details the capital costs, maintenance, and amortization for medium and large hydro dams in conjunction with diesel fuel requirements, CO2 emissions, and total lifecycle costs. The findings indicate that large hydro dams provide the most cost-effective and environmentally friendly solution, with significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and lower average energy costs compared to diesel. This analysis supports strategic decision-making for energy development.

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Energy Alternatives

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  1. EnergyAlternatives Diesel Combined Diesel/Hydro Dam Medium Hydro Dam Large Hydro Dam

  2. Load Forecast 2012 -2036 Fuel Required (4 kwhrs/L) CO2 emission (2.871kg/L) Maintenance and amortization (20%) Cost of fuel (a) $1.50/l (b) $2.00/l) Diesel

  3. Average fuel cost $1.50 per liter NPV =$555M Average cost per kwhr =45 cents CO2 emission = 1,904,196 tons Average fuel cost $2.00 per liter NPV = $740M Average cost per kwhr = 60 cents CO2 emission = 1,904,196 tons DieselExpected cost for the period 2012 -2036

  4. Combined Hydro/Diesel • Load Forecast 2012 -2036 • Fuel Required (4 kwhrs/L) • CO2 emission (2.871kg/l) • Maintenance and amortization for diesel (20%) • Cost of fuel (a) $1.50/l (b) $2.00/l) • Capital cost of Hydro Dam and Transmission Line $150M. • Capital cost is amortized at 6% over 25 years. An additional 3% of the capital cost is added per year for maintenance of the Hydro Dam and transmission line • Annual mean production from Hydro 38,000,000 kwhrs

  5. Average fuel cost $1.50 per liter NPV = $491M Average cost per kwhr = 40 cents CO2 emission = 1,222,334 tons Average fuel cost $2.00 per liter NPV = $603M Average cost per kwhr = 49 cents Co2 emission = 1,222,334 tons Combined Hydro/DieselExpected Cost for the period 2012 - 2036

  6. Medium Hydro Dam • Load Forecast 2012 -2036 • Fuel Required • CO2 Emission • Maintenance and Amortization(20% of the cost of fuel) • Cost of fuel (a) $1.50/L (b) $2.00/L • Capital cost of Hydro Dam and Transmission Line $250M • The capital cost is amortized at 6% over 25 years. An additional cost of 3% per year is added for maintenance of the Hydro Dam and the Transmission Line • Annual mean production of the Hydro Dam is 100,000,000 kwhrs. • In 2022 the diesel is required to start up based on the load forecast.

  7. Fuel cost = $2.00/L NPV = $326M Average cost per kwhr = 27cents CO2 emission = 254,111 tons Fuel Cost = $1.50 NPV = $307M Average cost per kwhr = 25 cents CO2 emission = 254,111 Medium Hydro DamExpected cost for the period 2012 - 2036

  8. Large Hydro Dam • Load Forecast 2012 -2036 • Fuel Required • CO2 Emission • Maintenance and Amortization(20% of the cost of fuel) • Cost of fuel (a) $1.50/L (b) $2.00/L • Capital cost of Hydro Dam and Transmission Line $350M • The capital cost is amortized at 6% over 25 years. An additional cost of 3% per year is added for maintenance of the Hydro Dam and the Transmission Line • Annual mean production of the Hydro Dam is 150,000,000 kwhrs.

  9. Large Hydro DamExpected cost for the period 2012 - 2036 • The diesel is not required to operate during the study period. • NPV = $360M • Average cost per kwhr = 28 cents • CO2 emission = 0

  10. Comparison of KWhr costCents per Kwhr

  11. Comparison of NPVMillions

  12. Comparison of CO2 Emission

  13. Summary • Hydro Power is an old well proven Technology. • Hydro has good long term advantages. • A large dam is the alternative with highest economic ranking. • The break even point between a combined hydro/diesel and a large hydro dam is 64 cents per liter. • The study looks at our load forecast and the

  14. And the best solution to supply our load forecast. • Utilize surplus power to operate our residual heating system and displace heating fuels. • A Hydro Dam has many benefits, reduction in Greenhouse Gas emissions, deferral of any expansion to our Tank Farms, Mining etc • Risk: (a) Cost of fuel, oil at $200 or $30/barrel (b) Financing the Hydro, interest

  15. Rates at 3% 0r 18%

  16. Summary

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