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Overview & Outlook for P/C Insurance An Industry at the Crossroads. 2007 PAAS Annual Forum Scottsdale, AZ June 4, 2007. Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Chief Economist Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY 10038

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overview outlook for p c insurance an industry at the crossroads

Overview & Outlook for P/C InsuranceAn Industry at the Crossroads

2007 PAAS Annual Forum

Scottsdale, AZ

June 4, 2007

Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Chief Economist

Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038

Tel: (212) 346-5520 Fax: (212) 732-1916 bobh@iii.org  www.iii.org

presentation outline
Presentation Outline
  • P/C Profit Overview—2006, A Cyclical Peak
  • Underwriting Trends: Unsustainable?
  • Premium Growth: Approaching a Standstill
  • Pricing: Competitive Pressures Mounting
  • Capital & Capacity: UnderleveragedROE Pressure
  • Catastrophe Loss Management
    • What is the Appropriate Role for Government?
  • Reinsurance Summary
  • Financial Strength & Ratings
  • Investments: Less Bang for the Buck
  • Tort System: Great News for a Change (Mostly)
  • Legislative & Regulatory Update
  • Q&A
p c net income after taxes 1991 2006 millions
P/C Net Income After Taxes1991-2006 ($ Millions)*

Though up in 2006, insurer profits are highly volatile (2001 was the industry’s worst year ever). ROEs generally fall below that of most other industries.

  • 2001 ROE = -1.2%
  • 2002 ROE = 2.2%
  • 2003 ROE = 8.9%
  • 2004 ROE = 9.4%
  • 2005 ROE= 10.5%
  • 2006 ROAS1 = 14.0%

*ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. Surplus.

Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Inst.

roe p c vs all industries 1987 2008e
ROE: P/C vs. All Industries 1987–2008E

P/C profitability is cyclical, volatile and vulnerable

Sept. 11

Hugo

Katrina, Rita, Wilma

Lowest CAT losses in 15 years

Andrew

Northridge

4 Hurricanes

*2007-08 P/C insurer ROEs are I.I.I. estimates.

Source: Insurance Information Institute; Fortune

profitability peaks troughs in the p c insurance industry 1975 2008f
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2008F

1977:19.0%

1987:17.3%

2006:14.0%

10 Years

1997:11.6%

9 Years

10 Years

1975: 2.4%

1984: 1.8%

1992: 4.5%

2001: -1.2%

*2007-08 P/C insurer ROEs are I.I.I. estimates.

Source: Insurance Information Institute; ISO, A.M. Best.

roe vs equity cost of capital us p c insurance 1991 2007e
ROE vs. Equity Cost of Capital:US P/C Insurance:1991-2007E

The p/c insurance industry achieved its cost of capital in 2005/6 for the first time in many years

+3.0 pts

+2.0 pts

-9.0 pts

+1.0 pts

+0.2 pts

-13.2 pts

US P/C insurers missed their cost of capital by an average 6.7 points from 1991 to 2002, but on target or better 2003-07

The cost of capital is the rate of return insurers need to attract and retain capital to the business

Source: The Geneva Association, Ins. Information Inst.

insurance reinsurance stocks slow start in 2007 in p c reins
Insurance & Reinsurance Stocks: Slow Start in 2007 in P/C, Reins

Total YTD Returns Through June 1, 2007

P/C insurance, reinsurance stocks lagging on soft market concerns and worries over 2007 hurricane season

Source: SNL Securities, Standard & Poor’s, Insurance Information Institute

top industries by roe p c insurers still underperformed in 2006
Top Industries by ROE: P/C Insurers Still Underperformed in 2006*

P/C insurer profitability in 2006 ranked 30th out of 50 industry groups despite renewed profitability

P/C insurers underperformed the All Industry median for the 19th consecutive year

*Excludes #1 ranked Airline category at 65.1% due to special one-time bankruptcy-related factors.

Source: Fortune, April 30, 2007 edition; Insurance Information Institute

advertising expenditures by p c insurance industry 1999 2005
Advertising Expenditures by P/C Insurance Industry, 1999-2005

Ad spending by P/C insurers is at a record high, signaling increased competition

Source: Insurance Information Institute from consolidated P/C Annual Statement data.

p c industry combined ratio
P/C Industry Combined Ratio

2007/8 deterioration due primarily to falling rates, but results still strong assuming normal CAT activity

As recently as 2001, insurers were paying out nearly $1.16 for every dollar they earned in premiums

2006 produced the best underwriting result since the 91.2 combined ratio in 1949

2005 figure benefited from heavy use of reinsurance which lowered net losses

Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, III. *Estimates/forecasts based on III’s 2007 Early Bird survey.

ten lowest p c insurance combined ratios since 1920
Ten Lowest P/C Insurance Combined Ratios Since 1920

The industry’s best underwriting years are associated with periods of low interest rates

The 2006 combined ratio of 92.4 was the best since the 87.6 combined in 1949

Sources: Insurance Information Institute research from A.M. Best data.

underwriting gain loss 1975 2006
Underwriting Gain (Loss)1975-2006

Insurers earned an underwriting profit of $31.2 billion in 2006, the largest ever but only the second since 1978. Despite the 2006 underwriting profit, the cumulative underwriting deficit since 1975 is $419 billion.

$ Billions

Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute

commercial lines combined ratio 1993 2006e
Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1993-2006E*

Commercial coverages have exhibited extreme variability. Are current results anomalous?

Outside CAT-affected lines, commercial insurance is doing fairly well. Caution is required in underwriting long-tail commercial lines.

2006 results will benefited from relatively disciplined underwriting and low CAT losses

Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute .

personal lines combined ratio 1993 2006e
Personal LinesCombined Ratio, 1993-2006E

A very strong 2006 resulted from favorable frequency & severity trends and low CAT activity

Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.

impact of reserve changes on combined ratio
Impact of Reserve Changes on Combined Ratio

Reserve adequacy has improved substantially

Source: A.M. Best, Lehman Brothers for years 2005E-2007F

strength of recent hard markets by nwp growth
Strength of Recent Hard Markets by NWP Growth*

1975-78

1984-87

2001-04

2006-2010 (post-Katrina) period could resemble 1993-97 (post-Andrew)

2005: biggest real drop in premium since early 1980s

*2007-10 figures are III forecasts/estimates. 2005 growth of 0.4% equates to 1.8% after adjustment for a special one-time transaction between one company and its foreign parent. 2006-2008 figures from III Groundhog Survey.

Note: Shaded areas denote hard market periods.

Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute

growth in net written premium 2000 2008f
Growth in Net Written Premium, 2000-2008F

P/C insurers will experience their slowest growth rates since the late 1990s…but underwriting results are expected to remain healthy

Source: A.M. Best; Forecasts from the Insurance Information Institute’s Groundhog

survey: http://www.iii.org/media/industry/financials/groundhog2007/.

slide22

*Insurance Information Institute Estimates/Forecasts

Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

Average Expenditures on Auto Insurance

Countrywide auto insurance expenditures are expected to fall 0.5% in 2007, the first drop since 1999

Lower underlying frequency and modest severity are keeping auto insurance costs in check

slide23

*Insurance Information Institute Estimates/Forecasts

**Excludes cost of flood and earthquake coverage.

Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

Average Expenditures on Homeowners Insurance**

Countrywide home insurance expenditures rose an estimated 6% in 2006, 4% in 2007

Homeowners in non-CAT zones will see smaller increases, but larger in CAT zones

average commercial rate change all lines 1q 2004 1q 2007
Average Commercial Rate Change,All Lines, (1Q:2004 – 1Q:2007)

Magnitude of rate decreases diminished greatly after Katrina but have grown again

KRW Effect

Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute

average commercial rate change by line 4q99 1q07
Average Commercial Rate Change by Line: 4Q99 – 1Q07

Commercial accounts trended downward from early 2004 to mid-2005 though that trend moderated post-Katrina

Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers

percent of commercial accounts renewing w positive rate changes 2 nd qtr 2006
Percent of Commercial Accounts Renewing w/Positive Rate Changes, 2ndQtr. 2006

Largest increases for Commercial Property & Business Interruption are in the Southeast, smallest in Midwest

Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers

percent of commercial accounts renewing w positive rate changes 1 st qtr 2007
Percent of Commercial Accounts Renewing w/Positive Rate Changes, 1stQtr. 2007

Commercial Property & Business Interruption increases are disappearing in the Southeast; Completely gone in the Midwest & Northeast

“Soft” market seemed to hit Midwest about 1 year before the rest of the US

Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers

u s policyholder surplus 1975 2006
U.S. Policyholder Surplus: 1975-2006

Capacity as of 12/31/06 was $487.1B (est.), 14.4% above year-end 2005, 71% above its 2002 trough and 46% above its 1999 peak.

$ Billions

Foreign reinsurance and residual market mechanisms absorbed 45% of 2005 CAT losses of $62.1B

“Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations

Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

annual catastrophe bond transactions volume 1997 2006
Annual Catastrophe Bond Transactions Volume, 1997-2006

Catastrophe bond issuance has soared in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and the hurricane seasons of 2004/2005

Source: MMC Securities and Guy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute.

p c insurance related m a activity 1988 2006
P/C Insurance-Related M&A Activity, 1988-2006

2006 surge due mostly to 2 deals. No trend started.

Liberty Mutual acquired Ohio Casualty for $2.7B*

No model for successful consolidation has emerged

*Announced May 7, 2007.

Source: Conning Research & Consulting.

property casualty insurance industry investment gain
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain*

Investment gains fell in 2006 and are now only comparable to gains seen in the late 1990s

*Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses.

2006 figure consists of $52.3B net investment income and $3.4B realized investment gain.

**2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Source: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

u s insured catastrophe losses
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses*

$ Billions

$100 Billion CAT year is coming soon

2006 was a welcome respite. 2005 was by far the worst year ever for insured catastrophe losses in the US, but the worst has yet to come.

*Excludes $4B-$6b offshore energy losses from Hurricanes Katrina & Rita.

Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B.

Source: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute

u s catastrophe losses 2006 states with largest losses millions
U.S. Catastrophe Losses 2006: States With Largest Losses ($ Millions)

Some 33 catastrophe events* in 34 states cost insurers an estimated $8.8bn in 2006, compared with $61.9bn in 2005. Cat losses in the following five states -- totaling $4.5bn -- represent half the total catastrophe losses for the year.

SURPRISE!! Indiana led the US with $1.5 billion in insured CAT losses in 2006

*ISO defines a catastrophe event as an event causing $25 million or more in insured property losses.

Source: ISO; Insurance Information Institute

inflation adjusted u s insured catastrophe losses by cause of loss 1986 2005
Inflation-Adjusted U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses By Cause of Loss, 1986-2005¹

Insured disaster losses totaled $289.1 billion from 1984-2005 (in 2005 dollars). Tropical systems accounted for nearly half of all CAT losses from 1986-2005, up from 27.1% from 1984-2003.

1 Catastrophes are all events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2005 dollars. Catastrophe threshold changed from $5 million to $25 million beginning in 1997. Adjusted for inflation by the III.

2 Excludes snow. 3 Includes hurricanes and tropical storms. 4 Includes other geologic events such as volcanic eruptions and other earth movement. 5 Does not include flood damage covered by the federally administered National Flood Insurance Program. 6 Includes wildland fires.

Source: Insurance Services Office (ISO)..

total value of insured coastal exposure 2004 billions
Total Value of Insured Coastal Exposure (2004, $ Billions)

Florida & New York lead the way for insured coastal property at more than $1.9 trillion each.

Northeast state insured coastal exposure totals $3.73 trillion.

Source: AIR Worldwide

new condo construction in south miami beach 2007 2009
New Condo Construction inSouth Miami Beach, 2007-2009
  • Number of New Developments: 15
  • Number of Individual Units: 2,111
  • Avg. Price of Cheapest Unit: $940,333
  • Avg. Price of Most Expensive Unit: $6,460,000
  • Range: $395,000 - $16,000,000
  • Overall Average Price per Unit: $3,700,167*
  • Aggregate Property Value: At least $6 Billion

*Based on average of high/low value for each of the 15 developments

Source: Insurance Information Institute from www.miamicondolifestyle.com accessed April 5, 2007.

outlook for 2007 hurricane season 85 worse than average
Outlook for 2007 Hurricane Season: 85% Worse Than Average

*Average over the period 1950-2000.

Source: Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University, May 31, 2007.

share of losses paid by reinsurers by disaster
Share of Losses Paid by Reinsurers, by Disaster*

Reinsurance is playing an increasingly important role in the financing of mega-CATs; Reins. Costs are skyrocketing

*Excludes losses paid by the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, a FL-only windstorm reinsurer, which was established in 1994 after Hurricane Andrew. FHCF payments to insurers are estimated at $3.85 billion for 2004 and $4.5 billion for 2005.

Sources: Wharton Risk Center, Disaster Insurance Project; Insurance Information Institute.

ratio of reinsurer loss underwriting expense to premiums written 1985 2006
Ratio of Reinsurer Loss & Underwriting Expense to Premiums Written, 1985-2006

Despite the respite in 2006, reinsurers paid an average of $1.11 in loss and expense for every $1 in written premium since 1985

Source: Reinsurance Association of America.

reasons for us p c insurer impairments 1969 2005
Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969-2005

2003-2005

1969-2005

Deficient reserves, CAT losses are more important factors in recent years

*Includes overstatement of assets.

Source: A.M. Best: P/C Impairments Hit Near-Term Lows Despite Surging Hurricane Activity, Special Report,Nov. 2005;

p c insurer impairments 1969 2006
P/C Insurer Impairments,1969-2006

The number of impairments varies significantly over the p/c insurance cycle, with peaks occurring well into hard markets

Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute

florida citizens exposure to loss billions of dollars
Florida Citizens Exposure to Loss (Billions of Dollars)

Exposure to loss in Florida Citizens nearly doubled in 2006

Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute

major residual market plan estimated deficits 2004 2005 millions of dollars
Major Residual Market Plan Estimated Deficits 2004/2005 (Millions of Dollars)

Hurricane Katrina pushed all of the residual market property plans in affected states into deficits for 2005, following an already record hurricane loss year in 2004

* MWUA est. deficit for 2005 comprises $545m in assessments plus $50m in Federal Aid.

Source: Insurance Information Institute

comprehensive national catastrophe plan schematic
Comprehensive National Catastrophe Plan Schematic

1:500 Event

National Catastrophe Contract Program

1:50 Event

State Regional Catastrophe Fund

Private Reinsurance

State Attachment

Personal Disaster Account

Private Insurance

Source: NAIC, Natural Catastrophe Risk: Creating a Comprehensive National Plan, Dec. 1, 2005; Insurance Information. Inst.

slide54

Legislation has been introduced and ideas espoused by ProtectingAmerica.org will likely get a more thorough airing in 2007/8

pre vs post event in fl for 2007 hurricane season
Pre- vs. Post-Event in FL for 2007 Hurricane Season

$80.0B

There is a very significant likelihood of major, multi-year assessments in 2007

$55.0B

$49.5B

Billions

$43.8B

$35.0B

Total =

$20.0 Billion

$25.0B

Notes: Pre-event funding includes funds available to Citizens, FHCF and private carriers plus contingent funding available

through private reinsurance to pay claims in 2007. Post-event funding is on a present value basis and does not include

financing costs. Probabilities are expressed as “odds of a single storm of this magnitude or greater happening in 2007.”

Source: Tillinghast Towers Perrin, Study of Recent Legislative Changes to Florida’s Property Insurance Mechanisms, 3/07.

per household savings vs long term costs of fl legislation for 2007 hurricane season
Per Household Savings vs. Long-Term Costs of FL Legislation for 2007 Hurricane Season

$13,971

Savings dwarfed by potential costs under most scenarios

$8,708

$8,191

$7,635

Billions

$6,031

$2,552

Total =

$1,726

Notes: Assumes average homeowners insurance premium of $1300 in 2007. Savings for 2007 reflects 24.3% savings on

hurricane costs, assumed to be 63% of premium. Savings based on statewide OIR estimate. Actual savings may be less.

Direct costs include assessments paid by policyholders on home and personal auto premiums. Indirect costs include

assessments on commercial lines passed on to policyholders via higher prices. Amounts are in nominal dollars, or the total

cost of borrowing including finance charges over the term of the bond.

Source: Tillinghast Towers Perrin, Study of Recent Legislative Changes to Florida’s Property Insurance Mechanisms, 3/07.

average annual assessment per household 1 in 100 year event in 2007
Average Annual Assessment per Household, 1-in-100 Year Event in 2007

The average Florida household will pay $8,699 over 30 years in assessments if a 1-in-100 year event strikes in 2007. Assessments could rise if additional storms hit in 2007 or beyond.

Source: Tillinghast Towers Perrin, Study of Recent Legislative Changes to Florida’s Property Insurance Mechanisms, 3/07.

savings vs costs by region neither equitable nor proportionate
Savings vs. Costs by Region: Neither Equitable nor Proportionate

STATEWIDE AVERAGE

Average Savings: $265

Cost of 1-in-30 Storm: $2,550

Cost is 10 times avg. savings

ORLANDO

Average Savings: $30

Cost of 1-in-30 Storm: $2,075

Cost is 69 times avg. savings

TALLAHASSEE

Average Savings: $20

Cost of 1-in-30 Storm: $2,000

Cost is 100 times avg. savings

MIAMI

Average Savings: $1,120

Cost of 1-in-30 Storm: $3,375

Cost is 3 times avg. savings

TAMPA

Average Savings: $100

Cost of 1-in-30 Storm: $2,300

Cost is 23 times avg. savings

Source: Tillinghast Towers Perrin, Study of Recent Legislative Changes to Florida’s Property Insurance Mechanisms, 3/07.

public attitude monitor 2006 unfairness of taxpayer subsidies
Public Attitude Monitor 2006: Unfairness of Taxpayer Subsidies

Most non-coastal dwellers believe taxpayer subsidies for coastal property owners are unfair

Coastal States

Source:Insurance Research Council

private passenger auto combined ratio
Private Passenger Auto Combined Ratio

PPA is the profit juggernaut of the p/c insurance industry today

Average Combined 1993 to 2005= 101.4

Most auto insurers have shown sig-nificant improvements in underwriting performance since mid-2002

Sources: A.M. Best; III

homeowners insurance combined ratio
Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio

Average 1990 to 2005= 113.1

Insurers have paid out an average of $1.13 in losses for every dollar earned in premiums over the past 16 years

Sources: A.M. Best; III

commercial multi peril combined liability vs non liability portion
Commercial Multi-Peril Combined (Liability vs. Non-Liability Portion)

CMP- has improved recently

Liab. Combined 1995 to 2004 = 114.6

Non-Liab. Combined = 107.1

Sources: A.M. Best; III

commercial auto liability pd combined ratios
Commercial Auto Liability& PD Combined Ratios

Average Combined: Liability = 110.2

PD = 97.1

Commercial Auto has improved dramatically

Sources: A.M. Best; III

slide70

Workers Comp Combined Ratios, 1994-2006P

Percent

p Preliminary AY figure.

Accident Year data is evaluated as of 12/31/2006 and developed to ultimate

Source: Calendar Years 1994-2005, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; Calendar Year 2006p and Accident Years 1994-2006pbased on NCCI Annual Statement Analysis.

Includes dividends to policyholders

slide71

Workers Comp Lost-Time

Claim Frequency (% Change)

Percent Change

Cumulative Change of –52.1%

since 1991 means that lost work time claims have been cut by more than half

Accident Year

2003p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2006

1991-2005: Based on data through 12/31/2005, developed to ultimate

Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services

Excludes the effects of deductible policies

Source: NCCI

slide72

Workers Comp Indemnity Claims Costs Have Accelerated, 1993-2006p

Indemnity

Claim Cost (000s)

Annual Change 1991–1996: +1.2%

Annual Change 1997–2005: +6.6%

Cumulative Change = +108.5%

(1993-2006p)

Accident Year

2005p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2006

1991-2005: Based on data through 12/31/2005, developed to ultimate

Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services

Excludes the effects of deductible policies

Source: NCCI

slide73

Workers Comp Medical Claims Continue to Climb

Medical

Claim Cost ($000s)

Annual Change 1991–1996: +4.1%

Annual Change 1997–2005: +9.5%

Cumulative Change = +200%

(1993-2006p)

Accident Year

2006p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2006

1991-2005: Based on data through 12/31/2005, developed to ultimate

Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; Excludes the effects of deductible policies

med costs share of total costs is increasing steadily
Med Costs Share of Total Costs is Increasing Steadily

2006p

1996

1986

Source: NCCI (based on states where NCCI provides ratemaking services).

personal commercial self un insured tort costs
Personal, Commercial & Self (Un) Insured Tort Costs*

Total = $231.3 Billion

Total = $159.6 Billion

Billions

Total = $121.0 Billion

Total = $39.3 Billion

*Excludes medical malpractice

Source: Tillinghast-Towers Perrin, 2006 Update on US Tort Cost Trends.

tort system costs 2000 2008f
Tort System Costs,2000-2008F

After a period of rapid escalation, tort system costs as % of GDP are now falling

Source: Tillinghast-Towers Perrin, 2006 Update on US Tort Cost Trends;2006 is III estimate.

likely market impacts of post katrina litigation
Likely Market Impacts of Post-Katrina Litigation
  • Litigation Creates an Additional Layer of Uncertainty in What is Already a Very Difficulty Market
    • Ultimate Thrust of Litigation is to Compel Insurers to Pay Water Damage (Flood/Surge) Losses for Which They Have Never Received A Penny in Premium
  • Some Courts’ Apparent Willingness to Retroactively Rewrite Long-Standing, Regulator Approved Terms & Conditions of Insurance Contracts Creates an Unpriceable Risk
    • Compounded by juries willing to award millions in punitives
  • People Discouraged from Buying Flood Coverage
  • BOTTOM LINE: Weather, Courts, Juries Together Create Nearly Impossible Operating Environment
  • Coverage Under These Circumstances Will Necessarily Become More Expensive, Less Available
federal legislative update
Federal Legislative Update
  • Federal Terrorism Reinsurance (TRIA)
  • TRIA expires 12/31/07.  The current federal program offers $100 billion of coverage subject to a $27.5B industry aggregate retention.
  • New Democratic Congress (with Committee chairs from urban Northeast states) predisposed to extend. Despite resistance/lackluster Administration support TRIA will likely extended for a multi-year period, perhaps 6-8 but potentially as long as 15 years (last extension in 2005 was for 2 years)
  • Potential changes include extensions of coverage for domestic terrorism losses (not included currently), and a lower industry retention for nuclear, biological, chemical, or radiological (NBCR) attacks.  There could possibly be a modestly higher industry retention for non-NBCR losses, and it needs to be resolved whether liability and group life losses will be covered.
  • Original hope for first-half 2007 extension have faded. Now looking at fall or even 11th-hour extension as in 2005.

Sources: Lehman Brothers, Insurance Information Institute

federal legislative update1
Federal Legislative Update
  • Natural Disaster Coverage
  • Some insurers are pushing for federal catastrophic risk fund coverage in the wake of billions of dollars of losses suffered by insurers from the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons.
  • Legislative relief addressing property/casualty insurers’ exposure to natural catastrophes, such as the creation of state and federal catastrophe funds, has been advocated by insurers include Allstate and State Farm recently.  However, there is active opposition many other insurers and all reinsurers.
  • There are supporters in Congress, mostly from CAT-prone states. Skeptics in Congress believe such a plan would be a burden on taxpayers like the NFIP and that the private sector can do a better job. Unlike TRIA, the industry is not unified on this issue.
  • Allowing insurers to establish tax free reserves for future catastrophe losses has also been proposed, but Congress has not yet indicated much support.

Sources: Lehman Brothers, Insurance Information Institute

federal legislative update2
Federal Legislative Update
  • McCarran-Ferguson Insurance Antitrust Exemption
  • Under McCarran-Ferguson Act of 1945, insurers have limited immunity under federal anti-trust laws allowing insurers to pool past claims information to develop accurate (actuarially credible) rates.
  • Very low level of understanding of M-F in Washington
  • Certain legislators threaten to revoke McCarran-Ferguson because of alleged collusion in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.  However, the view among some Washington insiders is that such a move would hurt small insurers with less resources rather than the large insurers perhaps being targeted.  The current bills designed to revoke McCarran-Ferguson are S.618 and H.R. 1081.
  • The government appointed Antitrust Modernization Commission in an April 2007 report strongly encouraged Congress to re-examine the McCarran-Ferguson Act.  Notably, 4 of the commissions 12 members called for a full repeal of the law.

Sources: Lehman Brothers, Insurance Info. Institute

summary
Summary
  • Personal & Commercial lines results were unsustainably good 2006; Overall profitability reached its highest level (est. 14%) since 1988. Strong momentum into 2007 and maybe 2008
  • Underwriting results were aided by lack of CATs & favorable underlying loss trends, including tort system improvements
  • Property cat reinsurance markets peaking & more competitive
  • Premium growth rates are slowing to their levels since the late 1990s; Commercial leads decreases
  • Rising investment returns insufficient to support deep soft market in terms of price, terms & conditions
  • Clear need to remain underwriting focused
  • How/where to deploy/redeploy capital??
  • Major Challenges:
    • Slow Growth Environment Ahead
    • Maintaining price/underwriting discipline
    • Managing variability/volatility of results
insurance information institute on line
Insurance Information Institute On-Line

WWW.III.ORG

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