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БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ MARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIG

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БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ MARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIG - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ MARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIGRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN. Sociodemographic Study Preliminary results. Study objectives. To examine marital, reproductive, and migratory behavior and attitudes of young people

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marriage childbearing and migration in kyrgyzstan

БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕMARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIGRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN

Sociodemographic Study

Preliminary results

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

study objectives
Study objectives
  • To examine marital, reproductive, and migratory behavior and attitudes of young people
  • To test a new conceptual model and a new instrument
  • Pilot project focusing on selected parts of Northern Kyrgyzstan
  • Long-term goal: develop and implement a national-level longitudinal system of migration investigation and monitoring in Kyrgyzstan

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

funding and implementing agencies
Funding and implementing agencies
  • Funding: Grant from the National Council for East European and Eurasian Research, USA
  • Arizona State University, USA
  • Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University, Kyrgyzstan
  • With technical support of the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

basic conceptual model
Basic conceptual Model

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

study design
Study design
  • Representative survey in three parts of northern Kyrgyzstan
    • Bishkek
    • Issyk-Kul oblast
    • Chui oblast
  • 1535 respondents
    • Aged 18-29
    • Usual residents of selected households
    • Equal number of men and women

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

sampling design
Sampling design
  • Five separate sampling domains:
    • Bishkek city (32 clusters): 512 respondents
    • Chui, urban (13 clusters in 6 towns): 204 respondents
    • Chui, rural (19 clusters=19 villages): 308 respondents
    • Issyk-Kul, urban (13 clusters in 4 towns): 204 respondents
    • Issyk-Kul, rural (19 clusters in 17 villages): 308 respondents
  • In all domains: the probability of selection was proportional to cluster’s size
  • In addition, in rural domains: the probability of selection was inversely proportional to relative size of ethnic Kyrgyz.

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

sampling design cont
Sampling design (cont.)
  • Random selection of households within each domain
  • Random selection of eligible respondent, regardless of sex, within each household
  • Additional households drawn if no eligible men and women; selected individuals unavailable or unwilling to participate; the quota for one of the genders is filled.

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

survey instrument
Survey Instrument

Sections:

  • Household characteristics
  • Respondent’s characteristics
  • Marriage and spouse’s characteristics
  • Health and reproductive behavior
  • Migration: past and future
  • Social networks
  • Community life participation
  • Political participation and attitudes
  • Family and gender attitudes

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

survey implementation
Survey Implementation
  • Conducted in respondent’s households
  • Conducted in Kyrgyz (25%) and Russian (75%)
  • Average duration: ~ 45 minutes
  • Each respondent received a symbolic monetary compensation
  • Each respondent was entered into a lottery to win a mobile phone (1 or 2 prizes)

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

main sociodemographic characteristics
Main sociodemographic characteristics
  • Mean age: 23.1 (23.4 women; 22.8 men)
  • The average household size: 4.0
    • 13% of respondents were heads of their HHs: (men 17.4%, women 8.5%)
  • Ethnicity: Kyrgyz 56.9% and non-Kyrgyz (mainly ethnic Russians) 43.1%
    • Language spoken at home: Kyrgyz 49.7%
  • Religion: Muslims 63%
  • Education: at least some higher education, 38.2% (40.9% women and 35.5% men); complete higher education: 15.2%
  • Economic conditions: 73% running water; 27.2% of households had an automobile
  • Worked for income in past 4 weeks: 58% men and 33.3% women
  • In marital union (ЗАГС or “civil union”) 33.1% (22.5% of men and 43.3% of women)
  • Officially married (through ЗАГС): 26.5% (17.8% of men and 34.9% of women)
  • Among those not in union: 91.7% wanted to get married one day.
  • Children: 70.9% didn’t have any children; Average number of children 0.44.

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

reproductive preferences
Reproductive preferences

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

reproductive preferences cont
Reproductive Preferences (cont.)

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

migration plans and intentions
Migration plans and intentions

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

migration plans and intentions cont
Migration plans and intentions (cont.)

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

migration plans and intentions cont16
Migration plans and intentions (cont.)

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

migration plans and intentions cont17
Migration plans and intentions (cont.)

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

summary of multivariate regression analyses
Summary of multivariate regression analyses

1. Influence of migration intention on intention to get married within two years:

  • Firm plan to move have no significant effect on wishes to get married soon,
  • Wishing to move increases the likelihood of wishing to get married soon

2. Influence of migration intention on intention to have a child within two years:

  • Having a firm plan to move decreases the odds of wanting to have a child soon.
  • Having a tentative desire to move does not affect the odds of wanting to have a child soon.
  • Results are similar regardless of destination

3. Influence of migration intention on modern contraceptive use:

  • Firm plan has no effect
  • Migration preference a strong positive effect
  • No effects if we look at foreign destinations only

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

summary of multivariate regression analyses cont
Summary of multivariate regression analyses (cont.)

4. Influence of marital status and number of children on having firm plans to move anywhere:

  • marital status does not affect plans to move
  • having at least one child significantly decreases the likelihood of having firm plans to move out of the community of residence.
  • Similar patterns for firm plans to move abroad, but less convincing statistically

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

further directions
Further directions
  • More complex and sensitive multivariate analysis of both past migration and future intentions.
  • Presentation and publication of results
  • Making the database freely and widely available to users worldwide
  • Designing a nationwide longitudinal study

UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

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