Bruce Peachey, P.Eng. MCIC President, New Paradigm Engineering Ltd. CSChE Halifax – October 2001

1. Bruce Peachey, P.Eng. MCICPresident, New Paradigm Engineering Ltd.CSChE Halifax – October 2001 Climate Change – Not Just Hot Air

2. Seven Climate Change Views • Warming is Not Happening • Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels • GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation • Energy Use Warming Atmosphere • Human Impact Minor or Beneficial • Can’t Afford the Solutions • A New Paradigm View

3. Warming Not Happening • Various reports and data adjustments both ways • Historical record is not long • What should we expect coming out of a little ice age? • Motivation and accuracy of measurement not constant • Are we comparing apples and oranges

4. Global Temperature Increases • Changes in measurement, motivation & technology, might have caused two step changes upwards in temperatures • 1800 - 1920 best global readings would be near water - No demand for accuracy, just how does it feel (how hot and how cold) • Three temperature scales in use • Reaumer close to Centigrade • (0oR= 0oC; 80oR= 100oC so Reaumer gives lower readings) • Was there confusion between units in early records?

5. Global Temperature Increases • Step 1 - 1917 recognized that tropical and arctic air masses exist and mapping movement of the fronts allows better weather forecasts. • Focus on humidity and accurate temperatures • Awareness of wet-bulb/dry-bulb grows. • Before this did people care if the thermometer was wet? • Wet thermometers give lower average readings • Link to airports inland instead of seaports on the coast. • Standardization of procedures, temperature scales, and higher frequency of readings.

6. Global Temperature Increases • Step 2 - 1980-90 Transition to digital temperature measurement. Truncated readings have a systemic impact. • “Cooling” in N.A. when Canada went metric? Increase in negative offset.

7. Historical Climate Data - Wyoming

8. Historical Climate Data - Tennessee

9. Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels • Sources of easy to access fuels running out • At some point we will reach energy breakeven • i.e. energy required to recover = energy recovered • Some major deposits (e.g. natural gas hydrates or coal bed methane) may not breakeven. • Future supply is a big unkown • Anywhere from 30-100+ years to infinite if fossil fuels are still being formed. (Why wouldn’t they be?) • What will be the next energy source?

10. Alberta Carbon Inventory All Sources = 300,000+ Mt (?) Coal Exports = 11 Mt/yr Petroleum Exports = 79 Mt/yr Petro-Chemicals Exports = 7 Mt/yr Agri & Wood Exports = 6 Mt/yr Net to Atmosphere = 31 Mt/yr Alberta Overall Carbon Balance Natural Gas Exports = 62 Mt/yr Alberta can continue to supply for 1500 years based on total carbon.. But only 50 years based on economic reserves!

11. GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation • Theory has some holes • Warming often leads GHG increase • Ref: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/vostok.htm • Current CO2 levels unprecedented? • Yet it has been over 16-18 times higher in the past. • “New Views on an Old Planet”, – Tjeerd H. Van Andel • Shouldn’t GHG effect cause relatively uniform heating and peak during the daylight hours? • No sign of “Global Climate Changes” only regional or local change • Most of the warming is due to higher night time temperatures and warming in Arctic/Antarctic areas.

12. What does Ice Core Data Say? • Ice core data from Vostok and Sipple sites does indicate: • CO2 and CH4 levels in the atmosphere tend to vary with temperature. • Increases in CO2/CH4 are in step with or lag by ~1000 yrs the temperature increase. • Decreases in CO2/CH4 lag behind on set of glaciation • Concentrations measured are not comparable to direct atmospheric measurement • Ice is not inert with respect to CO2/CH4 which it can absorb or adsorb • Air had to move for years through meters of snow and ice before it was trapped in a bubble. • CO2/CH4 can form hydrates in the bubbles or in deep snow or ice • Conclusion – Ice cores indicate trends in concentration, but measurements do not indicate absolute atmospheric concentrations.

13. The Case of the “Missing Carbon”The Facts • Global Carbon Emissions: • Emissions fossil fuel and cement = 5.4 Gt/yr • Deforestation & land-use = 0.5-2.5 Gt/yr • Carbon Accumulation in Atmosphere: • Calculated increase = 3.4 Gt/yr • Remainder (2-4 Gt/yr) is Missing! • Unexplained sink of CO2 in the northern hemisphere • Are we already sequestering carbon? • Do we get credits for it?

14. The Textbook Carbon Cycle Atmosphere 700 Gt 113 Gt 100 Gt Combustion 5 Gt Combustion .5 to 2 Gt Fossil Fuels & Shale 19,300 Gt Oceans 39,100 Gt Vegetation & Humus 1,760 Gt Source: “Introduction to Environmental Science”

15. Atmosphere 700 Gt 113 Gt 100 Gt Combustion 5 Gt Combustion .5 to 2 Gt “Fossil” Fuels & Shale 19,300 Gt Oceans 39,100 Gt Vegetation & Humus 1,760 Gt Reality is More Complicated Homes/Landfills etc. +/-? (-.4 Gt?) +/-? 0.6 Gt Sewers 1-1.5 Gt ? Gt subducted sediments ? Gt subsea seeps ? Gt Sedimentation and formation of carbonates

16. Energy Use Warming Atmosphere • Current energy use enough to warm atmosphere 1 degree C per year. • 450 EJ to warm atmosphere 1 degree C • Estimate 1996 energy use was 550 EJ. • Most use ---> Warming of Air • This was pointed out by a British chemist • Does not seem to be included in climate models? • Adding Energy Makes Things More Energetic! • Water vapour from combustion also not included?

17. Human Impact Minor or Beneficial • Main impact on global temperature is solar energy output • CO2 is necessary for life. • The more CO2 the more energy there is for life. • The more energy the more diversity in living things. • Organisms transfer CO2 from air and oceans into long term storage in sediments. • Less than 0.1 to 1 billion years of supply left. • Versus 5-10 billion years before the sun expands!

18. Can’t Afford the Solutions • Costly and no other benefit to collect most CO2 from fossil fuel sources. • Wind, “Biomass”, Solar, Nuclear, Hydroelectric and other Energy supplies have their own problems. • Local impacts on ecology, increase demand for land/water, require high tech materials, expensive, long term impacts • Conserving energy is usually cost effective. • Side benefit is less energy produced and less GHG, water vapour produced, but more wealth generated.

19. The New Paradigm View It’s The WATER!

20. Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr = Tt/yr) Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton What is the impact of this! 40 +4 71 111 425 385 Land Ocean 40 (–10% due to human water use)

21. Fossil Fuel Combustion Energy to Atmosphere 500 - 750 x 109 GJ/yr 500 – 750 EJ/yr (exajoules) Mainly a one shot deal as energy radiated Water to Atmosphere 7.5 – 10 Gt/yr 1 t CH4  2 t H2O 1 t Oil  1 t H2O Carbon to Atmosphere 3.4 Gt/yr - Net Measured from all sources. (What portion is due to combustion?) Water Losses (2/3 irrigation) Energy to Atmosphere 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr 9000+ EJ/yr (exajoules) Keeps on giving until it reaches the ocean! Water to Atmosphere 4,000 Gt/yr -10% of Surface flow to oceans +5% of Land Evaporation Carbon to Atmosphere Unknown (+/-) due to plant growth vs. decay in new agricultural areas under irrigation Compare the Numbers

22. The Heat Pipe Effect Day/Night Cycles Water gives Up Heat and Falls In Cold Areas Water Transport Water added in Hot Dry Areas

23. Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water Vapour Concentrations1981-1994 Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995)

24. Summary for Water Vapour • Water is more important than CO2/CH4 for climate change • Source of water and energy for weather • Climate changes observed in last few decades more than forecast for CO2 doubling, and doubling hasn’t happened. • A 5% increase in water to the atmosphere due to human water use, mainly in the northern hemisphere, is a better explanation • Higher water evaporation from dry areas (I.e. southern California) more likely to cause unusual weather patterns. • Water is the immediate concern and problem. Climate change and water shortages/surpluses causing human disasters. • GHG impacts may still be a concern, but much lower impact • Water also may impact ozone depletion

25. The Balance of Evidence - Says... • Warming IS Happening in some Regions (e.g. Arctic) • “Fossil” Fuel waste IS a Real Problem (Renewable?) • GHGs Trapping SOME Solar Heat (How much?) • Energy Use IS Warming Atmosphere (Must a bit) • Human Impact COULD BE Harmful or Beneficial (??) • Can’t Afford SOME Solutions (Need to pick best ones) • Enhanced Water Evaporation SHOULD BE THE major factor in Climate Change Equation (but it isn’t long term or global)

26. Does It Matter Which View is Right? • Likely no one view is entirely right. • Best strategy is to find “Robust Solutions” which: • Minimize Water added to atmosphere • Reduce Energy Waste • Reduce rate of Fossil Fuel Consumption • Reduce GHG emissions (CO2, CH4 & H2O) • Create Wealth (improve average standard of living)

27. New Paradigms? • Changes in water use a likely source of climate changes. Combine efforts and resources of climate change and water conservation. • Rethink Kyoto. It might make current problems worse. • More effort to study regional and global hydrologic cycles instead of global simulations • Climate studies should involve more disciplines • Challenge the common knowledge

28. Contact Information New Paradigm Engineering Ltd. c/o Advanced Technology Centre #130, 9650-20 Avenue Edmonton, Alberta Canada T6N 1G1 tel: 780.448-9195 fax: 780.462.7297 email: bruce@newparadigm.ab.ca web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca