navigating the business case analysis bca minefield l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Navigating the Business Case Analysis (BCA) Minefield PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Navigating the Business Case Analysis (BCA) Minefield

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 22

Navigating the Business Case Analysis (BCA) Minefield - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 226 Views
  • Uploaded on

Navigating the Business Case Analysis (BCA) Minefield. By Thomas J. Barthel Belzon, Inc. The BCA – What does this guy know?. Member of the AMCOM IMMC Maintenance Directorate PBL and Analysis Branch AMCOM Alternate PBL Coordinator Logistician w/combat experience

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Navigating the Business Case Analysis (BCA) Minefield' - andrew


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
the bca what does this guy know

The BCA – What does this guy know?

Member of the AMCOM IMMC Maintenance Directorate

PBL and Analysis Branch

AMCOM Alternate PBL Coordinator

Logistician w/combat experience

Maintenance and Operations Background

Infantry & Aviation Officer

Working on PBL / BCA development

Developing BCAs for legacy systems and assisting PM

FCS PBL

the bca a support tool
The BCA – A Support Tool
  • Decision support and planning tool
  • Projects financial and non-financial (Log/Risk) consequences of recommended alternatives
  • Each Cost/Benefit has logistics impact and risk factor
  • Basic risks include

Cost/Schedule/Performance/Supportability

  • Build and support “your case”
  • Cost data and Non-Cost data Supports Recommendations
the bca let s discuss
The BCA - Let’s discuss
  • What type of BCA must we do?
  • Who Needs to be on our BCA Team?
  • We have numerous outlines...Now What?
  • What should our timeline be for BCA completion?
  • Do we NEED weapon system experts?
  • What are adequate assumptions?
  • Are our BCA statements and findings flowing back to

the supporting data?

  • Have we identified and verified applicable risks?
  • Who should validate our BCA?
  • The BCA is completed...NOW WHAT?
  • Questions and answers!
the bca what type of bca must we do
The BCA - What type of BCA must we do?
  • EA vs. Cost / Benefit comparison
  • Need a waiver from DA (ASAALT)
  • Type I BCA
  • Type II BCA
  • Requirement is to adapt pre-policy EAs to Type II BCA after five years
  • This means LOGISTICS IMPACTS and applicable assumptions are included with cost and risks
the bca who needs to be on our bca team
The BCA -Who needs to be on our BCA team?
  • Perfect World - Same members as Supportability IPT
  • The Lead for the BCA – A PM designated decision maker

The Team

Logistics

Acquisition

Cost Analysis Directorate (CAD)

Army Working Capital Fund (AWCF)

Item Managers

Depots

PBL / BCA SMEs – PBL Branch

Engineering

OEM

  • Dedicated staffing until completion
  • Complexity drives membership
  • Cross-Organizational Input/Ownership/Communications
the bca we have numerous outlines now what
The BCA -We have numerous outlines...Now What?
  • DAU / WWW / Everyone Else’s Interpretation
  • The Main Focus is:

Sequence/Flow - Relevant Data (from Scope) – Valid / Executable Recommendations

  • Intro - Subject/Purpose/Scope
  • Methodology and Assumptions
  • Logistics Considerations
  • Cost
  • Risk/Sensitivity Analysis
  • Conclusion
  • Recommendation
  • Implementation Timeline
the bca format
The BCA - Format

Sequence / Flow / Data (from Scope) / Recommendations

  • Is the BCA readable?
  • Can the preceding section segue into the next?
  • Does data relate to each section or is a search required?
  • Is their TOO MUCH data that is simply noise?
  • Can the decision maker determine if recommendation is appropriate w/o re-reading?
the bca introduction
The BCA - Introduction

The X Program BCA Introduction Section

  • Subject: What is this case about?

This is important – Drives the initial focus for data

  • Purpose: Why, for whom, and for what use

Decisions from results will be used to...

  • Scope: Drives what specific data will be utilized

Who, what, when, where and how – period

the bca what are adequate assumptions
The BCA -What are adequate assumptions?
  • The scope determined the focus of assumptions - what we studied, i.e. SC, TMs, Test Equipment, Infrastructure, etc.
  • What Programmatic changes / business rules / case foundation / etc. will invalidate the BCA outcome if altered
  • The results of the BCA will now require BCA update and validation
  • Changes in Assumptions

This change affects costs and support (LOG)

Use Sensitivity Analysis and Weights to determine impact

  • How sensitive are results to assumptions >10% - noise?
  • Major Assumptions change is a BCA schedule killer!
the bca logistics considerations
The BCA -Logistics Considerations
  • Cost is important but so is non-cost
  • We are dealing with PB “L”

Subaru vs. Ford

PM VS OEM as PSI

  • Compare cost and benefits – Weight?
  • Now look at the “The rest of the story.”
  • Will ALSO affect:

gas mileage, speed, what else?

Staffing/transportation/engineering/contracts/IT/

funding stream/training/SMEs/etc.

the bca cost
The BCA - Cost
  • The EA fits nicely when placed here
  • Cost data collection is determined by the scope of the BCA
  • Modeling & Methodology for Costs
  • Validation
  • Other costs
  • Very difficult if scope is moving
  • BCA is OBJECTIVE – cost data is revealing!
the bca risk sensitivity analysis
The BCA - Risk/Sensitivity Analysis
  • Identify Major Risks

Cost / Schedule / Performance / Supportability

  • Cost/Schedule/Performance/Supportability
  • The sensitivity analysis shows weighted risks
  • Use to determine effects of assumptions change
  • Weight and sensitivity determined by the PM
the bca other risk
The BCA – Other Risk?
  • Don’t forget to consider other Risks?
  • Whose Risks – Programmatic / PMO
  • Contractual
  • Budget
  • Political
  • Methodology
  • Unknowns
  • Experience
  • Transition
the bca what should our timeline be for bca completion
The BCA - What should our timeline be for BCA completion?

Type I BCA – 4 mos. (2)

Limited Scope Type II BCA – 3 mos (1.2)

23 System BCA – 6 mos. (5 FT)

New System Type II 6 Sub-BCAs to 1 – 2yrs+ (1.2)

The Scope (Depth & Complexity) of the BCA will drive the Time and Resource Requirements

the bca do we need weapon system experts participating
The BCA - Do we NEED weapon system experts participating?
  • Who will write to the Logistics, and Risk Sections?
  • The BCA should address (assess) the Logistics process of the Status-quo and the effects on Logistics for each Alternative
  • Co-Locating within the PM organization
the bca are bca statements and findings flowing back to the supporting data
The BCA -Are BCA statements and findings flowing back to the supporting data?
  • Lack of Supporting data is like handing in a Master Thesis with no Reference Pages
  • This is a business CASE...where’s proof?
  • Sometimes the comparisons are not as close as you would like.
  • C13O wing data is not the same as C17 wing data but may be all you have, especially new acquisitions!
  • Sometimes data doesn’t even exist...don’t waste extra time looking (alter estimating technique...corollary COST, Future RAM-T estimates, etc.)
the bca who should validate our bca
The BCA - Who should validate our BCA?
  • CAD validates the EA and Cost Sections of the BCA
  • Based upon policy – ACAT Army Acquisition Exec (AAE)
  • Here’s the twist...Who Validates the Logistic Impacts, Risks, Sensitivity Analysis and...
  • Can you validate your own costs?
the bca the bca is completed now what
The BCA - The BCA is completed...NOW WHAT?
  • Remember – Recommendations

Does data support the reason for recommending?

  • The implementation Plan and Timeline should be developed for EACH alternative

The decision maker needs to know how long to implement after he makes a decision

  • The BCA approval process - Takes time
slide20
What is a “good” BCA – Tom’s Opinion
  • Well defined Subject/Purpose/Scope
  • Clear, relevant and up-front
  • Logistics Section will detail consequences of actions/decisions for each alternative
  • Rationale/supporting methodology for cost and non-cost inclusion
  • Determines what needs to be managed to achieve outcome
  • (predicted results)
  • Makes a valid recommendation supported by all data (cost/non-cost) with timeline for implementation
  • Recommendations showed success when implemented that aligned withBCA data
the bca lessons learned
The BCA – Lessons Learned
  • The BCA process is difficult w/o timelines
  • Determining proper scope w/o requirements creep
  • Data Collection will be difficult
  • Teams not staffed for Full Time BCA work
  • An Objective PBL BCA is difficult in a Transaction based environment
  • Who and how do we pay for the BCA?
  • You can collect too much data
  • You can do too much modeling
  • Who is tracking BCA Lessons learned?
the bca
The BCA

Questions !

THANK YOU FOR COMING!

Contact:

Thomas J. Barthel

Belzon, Inc. 256-461-6039

Huntsville, AL

thomas.j.barthel@conus.army.mil