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Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics

Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics. Perspectives and Trends for Renewable Fuels Transportation in Brazil. José Eduardo Holler Branco jebranco@esalq.usp.br 06/18/2007. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics. Outline: Main Aspects of Alcohol and Biodiesel Supply Chain

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Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics

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  1. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Perspectives and Trends for Renewable Fuels Transportation in Brazil José Eduardo Holler Branco jebranco@esalq.usp.br 06/18/2007

  2. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics • Outline: • Main Aspects of Alcohol and Biodiesel Supply Chain • Status of Renewable Fuels Brazilian Production • Research and Projects Related to Renewable Fuel Transportation

  3. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazil Energy Matrix Source: MME (2004)

  4. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazil Energy Matrix (Transportation Sector) – 2006 Source: MME apud BELTRÃO (2007)

  5. T.R.R. T.R.R. Distributors Importers Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Petrofuel and Biofuel Supply Chain in Brazil Diesel B2 Alcohol Gasoline + Alcohol 75% 25% Final Consumers Petroleum Products B2 Fuel Retailers Petrochemical Refinery Alcohol B100 B100 TR Alcohol B2 Biodiesel Producer Alcohol Distillery Sugarcane Vegetable Oils Grains Crushers B100 ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO(2007)

  6. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics BIODIESEL

  7. PA PI 1 2 MA 2 BA 2 1 MG 2 RO TO RS RJ GO MT PR SP 4 1 1 2 5 3 2 1 2 2 12 12 Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Biodiesel Plants CE 2 1 Authorized (21) 1 Waiting for Authorization (40) ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO (2007)

  8. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian legislation establishes as compulsory a minimum percentage (2%)of Biodiesel on Diesel composition starting in 2008 2013 – 2005 - 2007 2008 - 2012 2% (Optional) 5% (Mandatory) 2% (Mandatory) Potential Market: 1 billion liters / year Potential Market: 2,4 billion liters / year Potential Market: 800 million liters / year ADAPTED FROM DORNELLES (2006)

  9. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Some Brazilian companies and government offices that are already using biodiesel on their fleet ADAPTED FROM JUNQUEIRA (2007)

  10. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Estimative ofDemand and Supply of Biodiesel in 2008 (B2) Thousand m³ North (9%) Demand - 72 Supply - 136 Surplus - 64 Plants Authorized 21 Waiting 40 Total 61 Capacity Authorized 692 Waiting 1.446 Total 2.138 Northeast (15%) Demand - 120 Supply - 507 Surplus - 387 Center-West (11%) Demand - 88 Supply- 490 Surplus - 402 Southeast (45%) Demand - 360 Supply - 638 Surplus - 278 Projections Brazil (2008) Demand Diesel - ~ 40.000 Demand Biodiesel (2%) - 800 Supply Biodiesel - 2.138 Surplus Biodiesel - 1.338 South (20%) Demand - 160 Supply - 367 Surplus - 207 ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO (2007)

  11. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics • Some studies in place related to Biodiesel transportation: • Location of crushers and biodiesel plants Source: ROUSSEF (2004)

  12. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics ALCOHOL

  13. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol Production Thousand liters Source: UNICA (2006)

  14. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Annual Sales of Cars by Fuel Types Picture: www.carsale.uol.com.br Source: ANFAVEA (2006)

  15. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Annual Alcohol Exports Million liters Source: BRAZIL (2006)

  16. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Carburant Alcohol Production • Future production estimates premises: • New distilleries • Capacity expansion of existing distilleries • Expansion of sugarcane area • New sugarcane varieties • Industrial efficiency increase (fermentation and distillation process) • Losses decrease 17.4 billions liters 2006/2007 35.7 billions liters* 2012/2013 *Estimates made by UNICA (2006)

  17. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Domestic Market • Future demand estimates premises: • 2012/2013 fleet: 26 millions vehicles (cars) • 48% alcohol or flex-fuel vehicles • 52% gasoline vehicles • Flex-Fuel vehicles using 80% of alcohol • Gasoline C • Mix of 75% gasoline and 25% of alcohol (equal to currently mix) • Annual Sales of Flex-Fuel vehicles: • 84% of total fleet 14 billions liters 2006/2007 27.5 billions liters* 2012/2013 *Estimates made by UNICA (2006)

  18. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol External Market • Potential Markets for Carburant Alcohol: • North America • (Canada, E.U.A): • 2 billion liters • Asia • (China, India, Japan, South Korea, Thailand) • 2 billion liters • Europe: • 1 billion liters • Others: • 1 billion liters 3.1 billions liters 2006/2007 7 billions liters* 2012/2013 *Estimates made by UNICA (2006)

  19. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South) Source: UNICA (2006)

  20. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South) Source: UNICA (2006)

  21. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Expansion of Agriculture Frontiers... MA AM PA PI TO RO MT BA DF GO MG MS SP

  22. Alcohol Exports (Billion liters) Alcohol Production (Billion liters) 3.1 17.4 7.0 35.7 2006/2007 2006/2007 2012/2013 2012/2013 Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Source: UNICA (2006)

  23. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics • Rapid expansion of new agricultural production areas • This scenario demands numerous studies and analysis related to renewable fuel transportation and logistics: • Estimative of freight costs in the main transportation corridors • Best routes for alcohol and biodiesel exporting flows • Best location of crushing and biodiesel plants • Best level for alcohol stocks • Use of pipelines for alcohol transportation • Estimative of transportation costs in the international market • Best maritime routes for renewable fuels • Alcohol storage in both internal and external market . . .

  24. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Which is the most adequate mode for the transportation of renewable fuels? Transportation Mode Competitiveness Quantities Rail Ships/Barges Pipeline Pipeline Rail Trucks Rail Trucks Distances ADAPTED FROM FIGUEIREDO (2006)

  25. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Main Transportation Corridors for Renewable Fuels

  26. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics ADAPTED FROM TRANSPETRO (2007)

  27. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics SCHEDULE FOR THE CONTRUCTION OF INFRA-STRUCTURE INFRA-STRUCTURE A – PIPELINE REPLAN – ILHA D’ÁGUA B – PIPELINE – TIETÊ WATERWAY C – PIPELINE UBERABA - REPLAN D – PIPELINE SENADOR CANEDO – REPLAN AND GUARAREMA - SÃO SEBASTIÃO E – PIPELINE REPAR – CAMPO GRANDE - CUIABÁ ADAPTED FROM TRANSPETRO (2007)

  28. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics ADAPTED FROM ANTF (2007)

  29. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics

  30. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics THANKS! José Eduardo Holler Branco ESALQ-LOG (Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics) http://log.esalq.usp.br/ e-mail: jebranco@esalq.usp.br Phone: 55-19-3429-4582

  31. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (SP) New Plants Installed SOURCE: UDOP (2007)

  32. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (GO) New Plants Installed SOURCE: UDOP (2007)

  33. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MT) New Plants Installed SOURCE: UDOP (2007)

  34. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MS) New Plants Installed SOURCE: UDOP (2007)

  35. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (PR) New Plants Installed SOURCE: UDOP (2007)

  36. Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics • MME (2004) – Ministério de Minas e Energia. (Brazil) Available on: http://www.mme.gov.br/ • BELTRÃO (2007) – Sérgio Tadeu Cabral Beltrão Available on: http://log.esalq.usp.br/home/pt/seminario.php?show=2007 • DORNELLES (2006) – Ricardo Dornelles Available on: http://www.anp.gov.br/doc/biodiesel/GT%20BIODIESEL%20%201%C2%AA%20reuni%C3%A3o%2018%20mai%2006%20-%20MME.pdf • JUNQUEIRA (2007) – Guilherme Junqueira Available on: http://log.esalq.usp.br/home/pt/seminario.php?show=2007 • ROUSSEF (2004) – Dilma Roussef Available on: www.biodiesel.gov.br • ANFAVEA (2006) – Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores Available on: www.anfavea.com.br • UNICA (2006) – União da Indústria de Cana-de_Açúcar Available on: www.unica.com.br • TRANSPETRO (2006) - Transpetro Available on: www.transpetro.com.br • FIGUEIREDO (2006) – R. Figueiredo Available on: http://joomla.coppead.ufrj.br/port/index.php?option=com_docman&task=catview&gid=56&Itemid=204 • ANTF – Associação Nacional dos Transportadores Ferroviários Available on: www.antf.org.br • UDOP – União dos Produtores de Bioenergia Available on: www.udop.com.br

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