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Waltz’s Neorealism. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S. Russia. Balance of Power as a Reaction to a Threat: Napoleon, 1802-1815. Major Powers: FRA , UK, RUS , PRUS , AUS. After French Revolution (1789), Napoleon Bonaparte rises to power. -- Consul (1802)

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N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S

Russia

Balance of Power as a Reaction to a Threat:

Napoleon, 1802-1815

Major Powers: FRA, UK, RUS, PRUS, AUS

After French Revolution (1789), Napoleon Bonaparte rises to power.

-- Consul (1802)

-- Emperor of France (1804)

Continues military campaigns to build empire and feed war machine.

-- Poses major threat to Europe

UK, RUS, PRUS, AUS form “coalitions” against FRA

-- Napoleon defeated (1814)

-- Congress of Vienna (1814)

-- Napoleon returns (1815)

-- Waterloo (1815)

slide3

N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S

Russia

BoP as a Peaceful Equilibrium: Concert of Europe, 1815-1848

After Napoleonic Wars, Congress of Vienna continues (1815)

Defeated France let back into “club”

Quadruple Alliance: Austria, Britain, Prussia, Russia

Congresses held to attempt to resolve issues.

Buffer states/territory traded.

bipolarity vs multipolarity

N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S

Bipolarity vs Multipolarity

1792

1815

1854

1866

1870

1914

1939

WW I

WW II

Napoleonic Wars

Crimean War

Franco-Prussian War

(“peaceful”)

Concert of Europe

Austro-Prussian War

Multipolar

loose, shifting alliances, Britain as balancer

four or five Great Powers

1945

1990

Cold War—or “Long Peace”

?

Bipolar

(two Great Powers, tight blocs)

bipolarity vs multipolarity5

N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S

Bipolarity vs Multipolarity
  • Internal balancing is more reliable
  • External balancing can give rise to miscalculations that lead to general war
    • Large influence of small allies
    • Deterrence fails because there is an incentive to defect from commitments
    • As numbers grow, strategic complexity grows geometrically
  • Uncertainty is the leading cause of war
structural theories wwi

Allied Powers

Central Powers

  • France
  • Austria-Hungary
  • Great Britain
  • Germany
  • Russia
Structural Theories: WWI

Multipolar System

  • Abandoning an ally invites one’s own destruction
  • In a moment of crisis, the weaker or more adventurous party (Austria) is likely to determine its side’s policy
  • Its partners (Germany) can afford neither to let the weaker member be defeated nor to advertise their disunity by failing to back a venture even while deploring its risks
structural theories wwi7

Allied Powers

Central Powers

  • France
  • Austria-Hungary
  • Great Britain
  • Germany
  • Russia
Structural Theories: WWI

Balance of Power

  • The Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance were approximately balanced
  • The defeat of any great power would give the opposing coalition a decisive advantage in the overall European balance of power
  • Britain entered the war to prevent Germany from upsetting the balance of power on the continent
structural theories wwi8

Allied Powers

Central Powers

  • France
  • Austria-Hungary
  • Great Britain
  • Germany
  • Russia
Structural Theories: WWI

Alliance System

  • The establishment of the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance divided the European powers into two camps
  • While seen as a form of self-protection, the alliances also had the potential to escalate small crises into major wars
  • When Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, this brought Serbia’s ally Russia into the war, which brought Germany, France, and Britain into the war
strengths of structural realism
Strengths of Structural Realism
  • Parsimony
  • Focus on systemic effects
  • Power is defined as capabilities (non-tautological)
  • Explanatory power is in the constraints, not in the preferences
  • Collective action
  • Probabilistic predictions