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In Depth Report of the President of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM)

In Depth Report of the President of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM). Dr Jim Salinger President of CAgM. Challenges facing food production. The world population is projected to grow from 6.8 billion today to 8.3 billion in 2030 and nearly 9.2 billion in 2050;

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In Depth Report of the President of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM)

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  1. In Depth Report of the President of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) Dr Jim Salinger President of CAgM

  2. Challenges facing food production • The world population is projected to grow from 6.8 billion today to 8.3 billion in 2030 and nearly 9.2 billion in 2050; • Growth will be concentrated in developing countries; CAgM XV - 2010

  3. Challenges facing food production • Global food production will therefore need to increase by more than 50% by 2030, and nearly double by 2050; • 450 million smallholder farms in the world and several issues in the recent years are threatening their very livelihoods and those of fishers; CAgM XV - 2010

  4. Challenges facing food production • The frequency and intensity of natural disasters including floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, heatwaves and wild fires have been rising in the recent years; • In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and Typhoon Fengshen caused significant damage to lives and property and 2008 was the tenth warmest year, and decade 2000s the warmest decade on record; • There is an urgent need to increase productivity on farms and fisheries; CAgM XV - 2010

  5. Challenges facing food production • Climate trends • Changes in drought, 1900 - 2002 CAgM XV - 2010

  6. Challenges facing food production • This can only be accomplished through efficient use of natural resources, soil, water, crops and climate; • There is a lack of awareness in the farming and fisheries communities in developing countries, of the available and potential weather and climate services; • There is a lack of capacities and competencies in NMHSs of developing countries, especially the least developed countries in the Americas, Africa, Asia and Small Island States to deliver timely and relevant services to better meet their needs; CAgM XV - 2010

  7. Challenges facing agriculture • Raising awareness of vulnerable populations especially in the Americas, Africa, Asia and Small Island States through education and outreach is essential; • Adaptation to change is now the only viable strategy to avoid social hardship now and in the future; • It is essential that the CAgM programme addresses these challenges. CAgM XV - 2010

  8. The Main Thrusts of CAgM • Food Security • Reduction of the Impacts of Natural Disasters in Agriculture (e.g. droughts, heatwaves, floods, etc.) • Sustainable Land Management • Strategies to Cope with Climate Variability/Change Impacts on Agriculture CAgM XV - 2010

  9. Implementation Activities of CAgM – What we have done • OPAG Meetings (ETs and ICTs) • International Workshops • Inter-Regional and Regional Workshops • Training Activities • Roving Seminars & Projects • Support to UN Conventions • Guide to Agricultural Meteorological Practices (GAMP) • WAMIS CAgM XV - 2010

  10. COMMISSION FOR AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGYPresident: Dr Jim Salinger, Vice-President: Dr L.S. Rathore Management Group (MG) OPEN PROGRAMME AREA GROUPS (OPAGs) OPAG 1 Agrometeorological Services for Agricultural Production Chairperson: Prof. S. Walker (RA I) Co-chairperson: Prof. A. Kleschenko (RA VI) OPAG 2 Support Systems for Agrometeorological Services Chairperson: Dr. F. Rossi (RA VI) Co-chairperson: E. Palacios (RA III) OPAG 3 Climate Change/Variability and Natural Disasters In AgricultureChairperson: Dr. R. Motha (RA IV) Co-chairperson: Prof. Panmao Zhai (RA II) CAgM XV - 2010

  11. Agrometeorological Services for Agricultural Production (OPAG 1) - Meetings • 1.1 ICT on Agrometeorological Services – Vietnam Dec 2007 • Continue promotion and training of farmers in agrometeorological services • Continue roving seminars and workshops for farmers and extension personnel • 1.2 ET on Content and Use of Agrometeorological Products by Farmers and Extension Services – Australia May 2009 • Regular contact between climate services providers and farmers be enhanced • Specialised call centres and websites developed to answer queries • 1.3 ET on Agrometeorological Aspects of Sustainable Agricultural Development – Canada July 2008 • Use NWP to calculate Fire Danger Rating • Study El Nino imapcts on fisheries for countries CAgM XV - 2010 11

  12. Support Systems for AgMet Services (OPAG 2) - Meetings • 2.1 ICT on Support Services for Agrometeorological Services – India Feb 2009 • Use of remote sensing and for regional monitoring must be extended • Practices to avoid water and wind erosion be promoted by Members • 2.2 ET on Collection and Evaluation of Operational Agrometeorological Tools and Methodologies – Kenya Oct 2008 • Promote capacity building of new tools in developing countries • 2.3 ET on Communication of Agrometeorological Products and Services – Australia May 20009 • Disseminate information via cellphones, grower networks CAgM XV - 2010 12

  13. Climate Change/Variability and Natural Disasters (OPAG 3) - Meetings • 3.1 - ICT on Climate Change/Variability and Natural Disasters in Agriculture – USA Nov 2008 • Better monitoring of extreme events required • Common indices required of agricultural drought • 3.2 ET on Climate Risks in Vulnerable Areas: Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies – Norway June 2008 • - Develop improved decision support systems and seasonal climate predictions • - Improve impact studies so as to develop coping strategies CAgM XV - 2010 13

  14. Climate Change/Variability and Natural Disasters (OPAG 3) - Meetings • 3.3 ET on Drought and Extreme Temperatures: Preparedness and Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Rangelands, Forestry, and Fisheries– China Feb 2009 • More proactive drought drought preparedness and planning • Countries make independent assessments of impacts of future ENSO CAgM XV- 2010

  15. International Workshops • International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation(Tanzania, Dec 2006) - Co-sponsored with UNCCD • International Workshop on Advances in Operational Weather Systems for Fire Danger Rating (Canada, July 2008) • International Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures (China, Feb 2009) – CAgM ET Meeting • International Workshop on the Content, Communication and Use of Weather and Climate Products and Services for Sustainable Agriculture (Australia, May 2009) – Co-sponsored by University of Southern Queensland, BOM, NOAA, & APN. In conjunction with 2 CAgM ET meetings • International Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change in West African Agriculture(Burkina Faso, April 2009) CAgM XV - 2010

  16. International workshops CAgM XV - 2010

  17. Regional Workshops • Symposium On Climate Change And Variability- Agro Meteorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies For Agriculture (Norway, June 2008) – co-sponsored with EU COST ACTION 734 - CAgM ET Meeting • Regional Symposium on Agriculture Mitigation and Adaptation Options for Climate Change in South Asia(Bangladesh, Aug 2008) – co-sponsored by FAO, ESCAP, University of Dhaka, Ohio State University • International Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change in West African Agriculture(Burkina Faso, April 2009) • Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought (USA, Dec 2009) – co-sponsored by UNCCD, USDA, NOAA, NDMC EC LXII - 2010

  18. Training Activities • Capacity Building Workshop for Downscaling Climate Prediction Products for Agriculture and Food Security (Nairobi, Kenya, Sept 2006) • Roving Seminars on Weather, Climate and Farmers • Andhra Pradesh, India(Oct-Dec 2007) • Mekelle, Ethiopia (May 2007) • Sri Lanka (Dec 2009) • ANADIA-MALI Project (Assessment of the Impacts of Floods and Droughts on Agriculture) • Drought Monitor Training Workshop (Bamako, Mali - Sept 2009) EC LXII - 2010

  19. METAGRI – Roving Seminars in West Africa • State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) funded project; WMO provides technical coordination & Met Service of Mali supplied raingauges for seminars • Seminars strive to secure rural farmers’ self reliance in West Africa by raising their awareness of effective weather and climate risk management & sustainable use of natural resources for agricultural production. Also provide crucial feedback from rural agricultural community to the NMHSs • Phase I countries: 8 to 10 roving seminars: Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal (Sep 2008 to Jan 2009). • Phase II countries: 10 roving seminars in Benin, Cape Verde, Gambia, Guineé, Guineé-Bissau, and Togo (Jun to Sep 2009) • Phase III Countries: Liberia, Sierra Leone, Côte d´Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria (Aug to Dec 2009) EC LXII - 2010

  20. METAGRI – Roving Seminars in West Africa CAgM XV - 2010

  21. Support to UNCCD • COP-8 of United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), (Sept 2007, Madrid, Spain) • International Steering Committee Meeting for the Drought Management Centre for South Eastern Europe (March 2008, Bled, Slovenia) • WMO/UNCCD/OSCE Technical Workshop on Regional Drought Management Centre for Central Asia (May 2008, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan) • CRIC-7 of the UNCCD and First Special Session of the Committee on Science and Technology (CST S-1) (Nov 2008, Istanbul, Turkey) • COP-9 of the UNCCD / CST 9 / First UNCCD Scientific Conference (Sept- Oct 2009, Buenos Aires, Argentina) CAgM XV - 2010

  22. www.dmcsee.org EC LXII - 2010 CAgM XV - 2010

  23. World Agrometeorological Information Service (WAMIS) www.wamis.org • Currently, there are products and bulletins from 50 countries and organizations. • Nearly 500,000 visits since the inception of the website in December 2003 and an average of about 15,000 visits are made per month. • 19 categories of Tools and Resources with over 77 links. • Resource page for NMHS on Weather and Desert Locusts • National Progress Report for Agrometeorology (npr.wamis.org) • ISO Search Engine for WMO Information System (WIS) • WAMIS used as PDF storage for WMO Ag.Met.Programme CAgM XV - 2010

  24. Currently about 15,000 visits per month EC LXII - 2010 24

  25. Future Publications • Guide to Agricultural Meteorological Practices (GAMP) – 2010 Edition (3rd) • All chapters to be put on-line • CDs to be distributed at CAgM-XV • Updates will occur more frequently • Special Edition of Journal of Agricultural Science on “Climate Change and Agriculture” • Proceedings from Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought (Lincoln, USA – Dec 2009) • Brochures on Weather and Desert Locust & Climate Prediction and Agriculture CAgM XV - 2010

  26. Output of OPAG Structure • 2 refereed books by Springer • 4 refereed journal issues • Australian Journal of Ag Research • Meteor. Applications • Climate Research • Ag and Forest Meteorology 1. CAgM Publications (2007-2010) • CAgM Reports: 4 • Proceedings: 1 • Brochures: 3 • CD-Roms: 7 2. Roving Seminars - very numerous; 3. Every ET meeting (or workshop) was co-sponsored with other institutions; 4. All OPAG outputs have been delivered by the CAgM Session (CAgM-XV), Brazil, July 2010; Thanks go to hard working AgM Secretariat and Management Group!! CAgM XV - 2010

  27. 8 papers referenced from CAgM Deliverable in IPCC AR4 WGII report • “Increasing Climate Variability and Change: Reducing the vulnerability of agriculture and forestry”. Climatic Change, Volume 70, Nos. 1-2, 2005. Special Issue edited by J. Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar and R. Motha.  • Papers from International Workshop held in October 2002 in Slovenia (pre-CAgM-XIII)  EC LXII - 2010 CAgM XV - 2010

  28. Agrometeorological Projects • METAGRI funded by AEMET ongoing • Rockefeller Foundation Grant for Training of Trainers on Weather and Climate Information and Products for Agricultural Extension Services in Ethiopia (Two years - $323,000) • Caribbean Agrometeorolgical Intiative (CAMI) funded by EU ACP (3 years - 1 million Euros) • “Towards A Regional Framework For Weather And Climate Services For Food Aid, Food Security, Maritime Transport Safety Contributing To Disaster Risk Reduction In Lake Victoria Region” (World Bank – 3 years,$225,000 per year) CAgM XV - 2010

  29. International Society of Agricultural Meteorology • International web-based society for agricultural meteorologists to exchange scientific news and to communicate information on their professional activities; • By July 2010, INSAM had 1446 members from 116 countries; • President Dr Kees Stigter CAgM XV - 2010

  30. Norbert Gerbier-MUMM International Award • 2007: R. Philipona (Switzerland), B. Dürr, A. Ohmura and C. Ruckstuhl. Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapour feedback increase temperature in Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, (2005); • 2008: A. Yeshanew (Ethiopia) and M.R. Jury (South Africa). North African climate variability. Part 1: Tropical thermocline coupling; Part 2: Tropical Circulation Systems; and Part 3: resource prediction. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 89, pages 25-36; 37-49 and 51-62 respectively; • 2009: K. Krishna Kumar (India), B. Rajagopalan (USA), M. Hoerling (USA), G. Bates (USA), and M. Cane (USA). Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Monsoon Failure during El Niño. Science, Volume 314, pp. 115-118 (2006); • 2010: J.M. Sánchez (Spain), G. Scavone (Italy), V. Caselles (Spain), E. Valor (Spain), V.A. Copertino (Italy) and V. Telesca (Italy) Monitoring daily evapotranspiration at a regional scale from Landsat-TM and ETM+ data: application to the Basilicata region, Journal of Hydrology (2008) 30 CAgM XV - 2010

  31. The Future – what we plan to do • International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services (Belo Horizonte, Brazil, 12-14 July 2010 • CAgM – XV Preparations (Belo Horizonte, Brazil; 15-21 July 2010) - Updating CAgM Terms of Reference in line with results based management - Evolution of the work programme CAgM XV - 2010

  32. Global Societal Needs • Global Societal Needs • Improved protection of life and property (related to impacts of hazardous weather, climate, water and other environmental events and increased safety of transport on land, at sea and in the air; • Poverty alleviation, sustained livelihoods and economic growth (in connection with the Millennium Development Goals) including improved health and social well-being of citizens (related to weather, climate, water and environmental events and influence); and • Sustainable use of natural resources and improved environmental quality. CAgM XV - 2010 CAgM XV - 2010

  33. CAgMToRs to address GSNs • With global societal needs escalating, future weather, climate, water and related environmental products and services will require significant targeted improvements. • The definition of the role of CAgM in the 1999 vision document as a “Statement of Need” was designed with a view to the 21st century and to serve the future goals of CAgM. • The vision statement: • “to promote agrometeorology and agrometeorological applications for efficient, sustainable food, fodder and fibre production for an increasing world population in fastly changing environments” CAgM XV - 2010

  34. Future Vision – OPAG1 ETs • ICT 1.1 Agrometeorological Services: • Consider requirements for farm-level strategies • Ensure accurate, reliable and systematic regionalized services to agriculture • ET 1.2 Strengthening Operational Agrometeorological Services • Prepare guidelines to interface NHMSs and farmers - Better utilize media capabilities to enhance agromet service delivery • ET 1.3 Developing Agrometeorological Products & Services for Sustainable Agricultural Development: • Review products and services for response farming principles • Develop products and services to combat unfavourable conditions EC LXII - 2010

  35. Future Vision – OPAG 2 ETs • ICT 2.1 Agrometeorological Support Systems: • Recommend regional based capability for operational applications • Review operational data applications, tools and delivery systems • ET 2.2 Developing Agrometeorological Decision Support Systems for Agrometeorological Services • Review weather forecasts and climate predictions for applications • - Develop a framework of support systems for services at different scales • ET 1.3 Software Resources for Operational Applications in Agrometeorology: • Review information that farmers need for strategic planning • Develop guidance material for applications and information • delivery CAgM XV - 2010

  36. Future Vision – OPAG 3 ETs • ICT 3.1 Climate Change Variability and Natural Disasters in Agriculture: • Review regional climate scenarios for agricultural adaptation strategies • Identify deficiencies in long-range predictions for agriculture • ET 3.2 Weather and Climate Extremes and Impacts and Preparedness Strategies • Determine critical areas where agriculture is vulnerable to extremes • Analyse and summerise strategies to cope with climate risks • ET 3.3 Adaptation to Climate Change at the Regional Level • Assess response of agricultural communities to cope with change • Recommend ways to improve communication of information CAgM XV - 2010

  37. Future Vision - Fisheries • ET 4.1 Joint with JCOMM on Weather, Climate • and Fisheries – a new initiative: • Review effects of climate from seasons to decades on fisheries • Review current climate change impacts on fisheries • Fisheries play a crucial role for food supply, • food security and income generation; • Fish is a major source of protein diets, about 20% • protein in the diets of over 2.8 billion people – • reaching 50% in the world’s poorest and 90% in SIDs; • Climate change and variability is likely to modify • oceanic fisheries, with unpredictable consequences. CAgM XV - 2010

  38. Future AGM Publications • Weather and Desert Locust Brochure (Daniels) • Potential Journal Article “The use of NWP in agricultural applications” (Daniels and Stefanski) • Climate Prediction and Agriculture (Gaiani) • Brochure and Web pages • Chapter in GEO Best Practices Document • Agrometeorological Services Brochure (Stigter) • CAgM Reports on RA Working Group on Agricultural Meteorology CAgM XV - 2010

  39. World Climate Conference - 3 “Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.” • More effective use of global, regional and national climate information and prediction services by all stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors in all countries (leading to improved planning and investment in sectors vital to national economies and livelihoods); • Widespread social, economic and environmental benefits through more effective climate risk management and increased capacities for adaptation to climate variability and change. CAgM XV - 2010

  40. Integrated Drought Management • Combined CHy, CCl and CAgM; • It is planned the three TCs will work together; • Drought is multifaceted, involvingclimate, water and agriculture; • CAgM has three drought meetings in the next few months (NOAA, ISDR); • Working group on climate, water and food being formed with CCl and CHy. CAgM XV - 2010

  41. Concluding Remarks • Challenges are many for CAgM in contributing to the enhancement food supply and security because of weather and climate incoming seasons, decades and over the 21st century to assist food production to adapt to climate variability and change; • CAgM has a critical role to play in developing countries especially in the Americas, Africa, south and east Asia; “Although what we as individuals do may seem insignificant, our combined efforts have produced globally significant improvements for agrometeorology and food security.” CAgM XV - 2010

  42. Thank You CAgM XV - 2010

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