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Background to the Workshop

Background to the Workshop. Thomas C. Peterson National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA Asheville, NC USA October 2004. Regional Climate Change Workshops. 1999: CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Change Detection meets

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Background to the Workshop

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  1. Background to the Workshop Thomas C. Peterson National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA Asheville, NC USA October 2004

  2. Regional Climate Change Workshops • 1999: CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Change Detection meets • Asked, “What could a small group of volunteers do to further global climate change detection?” • Internationally coordinate a suite of indices • Mainly highlighting changes in extremes • Derived from daily data • Hold regional climate change workshops • Modeled after the Asia-Pacific Network Workshops

  3. 2001: Two workshops were held • In Kingston, Jamaica for the Caribbean • More on this workshop shortly • In Casablanca, Morocco for various countries in Africa • Produced a workshop report, but that’s it • No careful post-workshop data/indices analyses • No peer-reviewed publication of analyses of indices that could contribute to IPCC • No release of indices • No release of data

  4. Caribbean Climate Change Workshop • January 2001 • At the University of the West Indies • 18 of the 21 met services in the region participated • Support from WMO, the University of the West Indies, NOAA and NASA

  5. Combination of seminars and hands-on data analysis

  6. 30 Stations UsedPrecipitation, Temperature, Both

  7. Careful post-Workshop Analysis Addressed Data Problems • Many stations’ digital record were too short to use in this analysis • Limited to data from 30 stations • QC: a wide variety of checks, including looking for: • Extreme values due to digitizing errors • Incorrect English/metric units • Runs of the same value • Tmax < Tmin • Missing precipitation set to 0 • Homogeneity • Evaluation of time series of the indices to weed out the most inhomogeneous • Problem stations: 3 Tmax, 2 Tmin, No precipitation

  8. Accomplishments • Better understanding of data as comparisons could be made across borders • 17 author J. of Geophysical Research article on climate change in the Caribbean • Released the suite of indices from the data • Also released the data themselves • To researchers from one web site at UWI • Therefore, the work is reproducible

  9. 2002: Frich et al. Climate Research “global” indices paper Note large blank areas in “global” indices map

  10. 2004 • Now the WMO CCl/CLIVAR Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring & Indices has been formed and is coordinating workshops • Abdalah Mokssit and Serhat Sensoy are members • Tom Peterson is chair of the ET’s CCl OPAG • Funding support from U.S. State Department, START, WCRP and IAI

  11. Workshops • Southern Africa – May 31-June 4, 2004 • Bruce Hewiston, Univ. of Cape Town • Southern South America, August 9-14, 2004 • Maceio, Brazil • Luiz Molion, David Karoly, Tom Peterson • All countries in the region participated • No country could release data • All countries released indices as well as all QC and homogeneity assessments • Two articles planned: temperature and precipitation

  12. Workshops, Con’t • Southwest Asia – October 4-9, 2004 • WMO meteorological training center in Alanya Turkey • Serhat Sensoy, Tom Peterson and Valery Detemmerman • Central America and northern South America – Nov. 8-12, 2004 • Patricia Ramirez, Enric Aguilar, Manola Brunet • Central and Southern Asia workshop in Pune, India • February 2005

  13. Workshop Software • Indices formulations coordinated by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices • Workshop results will be able to fit together seamlessly • Workshop suitable software (RClimDex) produced on behalf of the ET by Xuebin Zhang of Environment Canada • http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/ • Uses the free “R” statistical package

  14. Putting It All Together • Lisa Alexander (Hadley Centre) is coordinating a global indices analyses article (for ETCCDMI) • All available daily data • Indices from workshops • In time to contribute to IPCC • E.g., to be submitted by January or February • Long list of co-authors

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