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Background to the Workshop. Thomas C. Peterson National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA Asheville, NC USA October 2004. Regional Climate Change Workshops. 1999: CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Change Detection meets

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background to the workshop

Background to the Workshop

Thomas C. Peterson

National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA

Asheville, NC USA

October 2004

regional climate change workshops
Regional Climate Change Workshops
  • 1999: CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Change Detection meets
    • Asked, “What could a small group of volunteers do to further global climate change detection?”
      • Internationally coordinate a suite of indices
        • Mainly highlighting changes in extremes
        • Derived from daily data
      • Hold regional climate change workshops
        • Modeled after the Asia-Pacific Network Workshops
2001 two workshops were held
2001: Two workshops were held
  • In Kingston, Jamaica for the Caribbean
    • More on this workshop shortly
  • In Casablanca, Morocco for various countries in Africa
    • Produced a workshop report, but that’s it
    • No careful post-workshop data/indices analyses
    • No peer-reviewed publication of analyses of indices that could contribute to IPCC
    • No release of indices
    • No release of data
caribbean climate change workshop
Caribbean Climate Change Workshop
  • January 2001
  • At the University of the West Indies
  • 18 of the 21 met services in the region participated
  • Support from WMO, the University of the West Indies, NOAA and NASA
careful post workshop analysis addressed data problems
Careful post-Workshop Analysis Addressed Data Problems
  • Many stations’ digital record were too short to use in this analysis
    • Limited to data from 30 stations
  • QC: a wide variety of checks, including looking for:
    • Extreme values due to digitizing errors
    • Incorrect English/metric units
    • Runs of the same value
    • Tmax < Tmin
    • Missing precipitation set to 0
  • Homogeneity
    • Evaluation of time series of the indices to weed out the most inhomogeneous
    • Problem stations: 3 Tmax, 2 Tmin, No precipitation
accomplishments
Accomplishments
  • Better understanding of data as comparisons could be made across borders
  • 17 author J. of Geophysical Research article on climate change in the Caribbean
  • Released the suite of indices from the data
  • Also released the data themselves
    • To researchers from one web site at UWI
    • Therefore, the work is reproducible
2002 frich et al climate research global indices paper
2002: Frich et al. Climate Research “global” indices paper

Note large blank areas in “global” indices map

slide15
2004
  • Now the WMO CCl/CLIVAR Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring & Indices has been formed and is coordinating workshops
    • Abdalah Mokssit and Serhat Sensoy are members
    • Tom Peterson is chair of the ET’s CCl OPAG
    • Funding support from U.S. State Department, START, WCRP and IAI
workshops
Workshops
  • Southern Africa – May 31-June 4, 2004
    • Bruce Hewiston, Univ. of Cape Town
  • Southern South America, August 9-14, 2004
    • Maceio, Brazil
    • Luiz Molion, David Karoly, Tom Peterson
    • All countries in the region participated
    • No country could release data
    • All countries released indices as well as all QC and homogeneity assessments
    • Two articles planned: temperature and precipitation
workshops con t
Workshops, Con’t
  • Southwest Asia – October 4-9, 2004
    • WMO meteorological training center in Alanya Turkey
    • Serhat Sensoy, Tom Peterson and Valery Detemmerman
  • Central America and northern South America – Nov. 8-12, 2004
    • Patricia Ramirez, Enric Aguilar, Manola Brunet
  • Central and Southern Asia workshop in Pune, India
    • February 2005
workshop software
Workshop Software
  • Indices formulations coordinated by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices
    • Workshop results will be able to fit together seamlessly
  • Workshop suitable software (RClimDex) produced on behalf of the ET by Xuebin Zhang of Environment Canada
    • http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/
    • Uses the free “R” statistical package
putting it all together
Putting It All Together
  • Lisa Alexander (Hadley Centre) is coordinating a global indices analyses article (for ETCCDMI)
    • All available daily data
    • Indices from workshops
    • In time to contribute to IPCC
      • E.g., to be submitted by January or February
    • Long list of co-authors